Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. All severe hazards are possible, including swaths of intense winds and tornadoes. ...MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys... A large cyclone will rapidly intensify as it lifts northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. A 100+ kt southwesterly jet streak at 500 mb will overspread portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, while a 60-70 kt low-level jet overspreads much the Mid-South and Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Northward extent of deeper Gulf moisture (60s F dewpoints) will likely remain south of southeast MO/southern IL/western KY, with more modest 50s F dewpoints expanding northward into southeast MN/southern WI and eastward toward the Lower OH Valley. Despite the more modest moisture across the northern half of the outlook area, cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least weak instability. A strongly forced QLCS is expected to develop along a surface dryline as the mid/upper jet impinges on the Ozarks vicinity by late afternoon or early evening. Intense forcing and deep-layer wind fields will maintain an organized QLCS into the nighttime hours. Strong daytime heating and mixing of the boundary layer ahead of the QLCS will further promote swaths of severe/damaging gusts, some of which may be greater than 65 kt. While moisture will be somewhat of a limiting factor, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible. Convection may develop later across AR into the TN Valley/Deep South. However, deeper Gulf moisture will be in place across this region (possible mid/upper 60s F). This will support stronger instability amid supercell wind profiles. Large-scale ascent will be more subtle across this area, but sharpening of the dryline across AR and low-level confluence should support convective development during the evening. Initial supercells may grow upscale into a line moving across portions of AR/TN/northern MS/AL. An attendant risk of strong tornadoes and swaths of damaging/potentially significant wind gusts is expected across the Mid-South with this activity. A more conditional risk for overnight supercells exists across parts northern/central MS/AL. The environment could support intense supercells capable of producing large hail and strong tornadoes this far south, but forcing mechanisms will be weak. Trends will be monitored and future outlook adjustments may be needed. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. All severe hazards are possible, including swaths of intense winds and tornadoes. ...MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys... A large cyclone will rapidly intensify as it lifts northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. A 100+ kt southwesterly jet streak at 500 mb will overspread portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, while a 60-70 kt low-level jet overspreads much the Mid-South and Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Northward extent of deeper Gulf moisture (60s F dewpoints) will likely remain south of southeast MO/southern IL/western KY, with more modest 50s F dewpoints expanding northward into southeast MN/southern WI and eastward toward the Lower OH Valley. Despite the more modest moisture across the northern half of the outlook area, cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least weak instability. A strongly forced QLCS is expected to develop along a surface dryline as the mid/upper jet impinges on the Ozarks vicinity by late afternoon or early evening. Intense forcing and deep-layer wind fields will maintain an organized QLCS into the nighttime hours. Strong daytime heating and mixing of the boundary layer ahead of the QLCS will further promote swaths of severe/damaging gusts, some of which may be greater than 65 kt. While moisture will be somewhat of a limiting factor, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible. Convection may develop later across AR into the TN Valley/Deep South. However, deeper Gulf moisture will be in place across this region (possible mid/upper 60s F). This will support stronger instability amid supercell wind profiles. Large-scale ascent will be more subtle across this area, but sharpening of the dryline across AR and low-level confluence should support convective development during the evening. Initial supercells may grow upscale into a line moving across portions of AR/TN/northern MS/AL. An attendant risk of strong tornadoes and swaths of damaging/potentially significant wind gusts is expected across the Mid-South with this activity. A more conditional risk for overnight supercells exists across parts northern/central MS/AL. The environment could support intense supercells capable of producing large hail and strong tornadoes this far south, but forcing mechanisms will be weak. Trends will be monitored and future outlook adjustments may be needed. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. All severe hazards are possible, including swaths of intense winds and tornadoes. ...MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys... A large cyclone will rapidly intensify as it lifts northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. A 100+ kt southwesterly jet streak at 500 mb will overspread portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, while a 60-70 kt low-level jet overspreads much the Mid-South and Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Northward extent of deeper Gulf moisture (60s F dewpoints) will likely remain south of southeast MO/southern IL/western KY, with more modest 50s F dewpoints expanding northward into southeast MN/southern WI and eastward toward the Lower OH Valley. Despite the more modest moisture across the northern half of the outlook area, cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least weak instability. A strongly forced QLCS is expected to develop along a surface dryline as the mid/upper jet impinges on the Ozarks vicinity by late afternoon or early evening. Intense forcing and deep-layer wind fields will maintain an organized QLCS into the nighttime hours. Strong daytime heating and mixing of the boundary layer ahead of the QLCS will further promote swaths of severe/damaging gusts, some of which may be greater than 65 kt. While moisture will be somewhat of a limiting factor, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible. Convection may develop later across AR into the TN Valley/Deep South. However, deeper Gulf moisture will be in place across this region (possible mid/upper 60s F). This will support stronger instability amid supercell wind profiles. Large-scale ascent will be more subtle across this area, but sharpening of the dryline across AR and low-level confluence should support convective development during the evening. Initial supercells may grow upscale into a line moving across portions of AR/TN/northern MS/AL. An attendant risk of strong tornadoes and swaths of damaging/potentially significant wind gusts is expected across the Mid-South with this activity. A more conditional risk for overnight supercells exists across parts northern/central MS/AL. The environment could support intense supercells capable of producing large hail and strong tornadoes this far south, but forcing mechanisms will be weak. Trends will be monitored and future outlook adjustments may be needed. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent, rapidly progressing upper trough will traverse the southwestern CONUS and impinge on the Plains states tomorrow (Thursday), supporting rapid surface low development across the central High Plains. Strong, dry downslope flow across the High Plains amid drying fuels will support significant wildfire-spread potential, particularly over locations that have not experienced recent appreciable precipitation. By mid afternoon, south-southwesterly surface winds will sustain in the 20-25 mph range as RH falls to 15-20 percent, supporting a long axis of Elevated to Critical conditions from Far West Texas to central Nebraska. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent, rapidly progressing upper trough will traverse the southwestern CONUS and impinge on the Plains states tomorrow (Thursday), supporting rapid surface low development across the central High Plains. Strong, dry downslope flow across the High Plains amid drying fuels will support significant wildfire-spread potential, particularly over locations that have not experienced recent appreciable precipitation. By mid afternoon, south-southwesterly surface winds will sustain in the 20-25 mph range as RH falls to 15-20 percent, supporting a long axis of Elevated to Critical conditions from Far West Texas to central Nebraska. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent, rapidly progressing upper trough will traverse the southwestern CONUS and impinge on the Plains states tomorrow (Thursday), supporting rapid surface low development across the central High Plains. Strong, dry downslope flow across the High Plains amid drying fuels will support significant wildfire-spread potential, particularly over locations that have not experienced recent appreciable precipitation. By mid afternoon, south-southwesterly surface winds will sustain in the 20-25 mph range as RH falls to 15-20 percent, supporting a long axis of Elevated to Critical conditions from Far West Texas to central Nebraska. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent, rapidly progressing upper trough will traverse the southwestern CONUS and impinge on the Plains states tomorrow (Thursday), supporting rapid surface low development across the central High Plains. Strong, dry downslope flow across the High Plains amid drying fuels will support significant wildfire-spread potential, particularly over locations that have not experienced recent appreciable precipitation. By mid afternoon, south-southwesterly surface winds will sustain in the 20-25 mph range as RH falls to 15-20 percent, supporting a long axis of Elevated to Critical conditions from Far West Texas to central Nebraska. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent, rapidly progressing upper trough will traverse the southwestern CONUS and impinge on the Plains states tomorrow (Thursday), supporting rapid surface low development across the central High Plains. Strong, dry downslope flow across the High Plains amid drying fuels will support significant wildfire-spread potential, particularly over locations that have not experienced recent appreciable precipitation. By mid afternoon, south-southwesterly surface winds will sustain in the 20-25 mph range as RH falls to 15-20 percent, supporting a long axis of Elevated to Critical conditions from Far West Texas to central Nebraska. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent, rapidly progressing upper trough will traverse the southwestern CONUS and impinge on the Plains states tomorrow (Thursday), supporting rapid surface low development across the central High Plains. Strong, dry downslope flow across the High Plains amid drying fuels will support significant wildfire-spread potential, particularly over locations that have not experienced recent appreciable precipitation. By mid afternoon, south-southwesterly surface winds will sustain in the 20-25 mph range as RH falls to 15-20 percent, supporting a long axis of Elevated to Critical conditions from Far West Texas to central Nebraska. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Southeast... An upper shortwave trough will move over the Southeast and offshore the Atlantic coast through Thursday evening. The bulk of the mid/upper jet streak associated with the trough will remain focused over the Gulf. However, increasing northwesterly flow above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Meanwhile, elongated/straight hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. Cool temperatures aloft steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE values to around 750-1200 J/kg. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, generally in the mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Furthermore, a lack of surface boundaries to focus thunderstorm initiation may limit storm coverage. Nevertheless, a few storms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across northern MS. This activity may continue to propagate southeast into the afternoon. Additional storms will develop during the afternoon aided by heating into the 70s F. A few organized cells capable of severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible. Some consideration for a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) was give, mainly across southern AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle where somewhat better low-level moisture is forecast. However, a lack of stronger forcing and uncertainty regarding storm cover precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Southeast... An upper shortwave trough will move over the Southeast and offshore the Atlantic coast through Thursday evening. The bulk of the mid/upper jet streak associated with the trough will remain focused over the Gulf. However, increasing northwesterly flow above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Meanwhile, elongated/straight hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. Cool temperatures aloft steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE values to around 750-1200 J/kg. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, generally in the mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Furthermore, a lack of surface boundaries to focus thunderstorm initiation may limit storm coverage. Nevertheless, a few storms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across northern MS. This activity may continue to propagate southeast into the afternoon. Additional storms will develop during the afternoon aided by heating into the 70s F. A few organized cells capable of severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible. Some consideration for a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) was give, mainly across southern AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle where somewhat better low-level moisture is forecast. However, a lack of stronger forcing and uncertainty regarding storm cover precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Southeast... An upper shortwave trough will move over the Southeast and offshore the Atlantic coast through Thursday evening. The bulk of the mid/upper jet streak associated with the trough will remain focused over the Gulf. However, increasing northwesterly flow above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Meanwhile, elongated/straight hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. Cool temperatures aloft steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE values to around 750-1200 J/kg. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, generally in the mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Furthermore, a lack of surface boundaries to focus thunderstorm initiation may limit storm coverage. Nevertheless, a few storms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across northern MS. This activity may continue to propagate southeast into the afternoon. Additional storms will develop during the afternoon aided by heating into the 70s F. A few organized cells capable of severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible. Some consideration for a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) was give, mainly across southern AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle where somewhat better low-level moisture is forecast. However, a lack of stronger forcing and uncertainty regarding storm cover precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Southeast... An upper shortwave trough will move over the Southeast and offshore the Atlantic coast through Thursday evening. The bulk of the mid/upper jet streak associated with the trough will remain focused over the Gulf. However, increasing northwesterly flow above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Meanwhile, elongated/straight hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. Cool temperatures aloft steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE values to around 750-1200 J/kg. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, generally in the mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Furthermore, a lack of surface boundaries to focus thunderstorm initiation may limit storm coverage. Nevertheless, a few storms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across northern MS. This activity may continue to propagate southeast into the afternoon. Additional storms will develop during the afternoon aided by heating into the 70s F. A few organized cells capable of severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible. Some consideration for a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) was give, mainly across southern AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle where somewhat better low-level moisture is forecast. However, a lack of stronger forcing and uncertainty regarding storm cover precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Southeast... An upper shortwave trough will move over the Southeast and offshore the Atlantic coast through Thursday evening. The bulk of the mid/upper jet streak associated with the trough will remain focused over the Gulf. However, increasing northwesterly flow above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Meanwhile, elongated/straight hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. Cool temperatures aloft steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE values to around 750-1200 J/kg. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, generally in the mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Furthermore, a lack of surface boundaries to focus thunderstorm initiation may limit storm coverage. Nevertheless, a few storms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across northern MS. This activity may continue to propagate southeast into the afternoon. Additional storms will develop during the afternoon aided by heating into the 70s F. A few organized cells capable of severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible. Some consideration for a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) was give, mainly across southern AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle where somewhat better low-level moisture is forecast. However, a lack of stronger forcing and uncertainty regarding storm cover precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more