Severe Storms

WW 0029 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 29 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/12/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 29 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-073-091-130040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER LAC013-015-017-027-031-043-049-061-069-081-085-119-127-130040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER WINN TXC001-005-037-041-051-063-067-073-085-113-119-139-145-147-159- 161-183-185-203-213-217-223-225-231-257-277-289-293-309-313-315- 331-343-347-349-365-373-379-387-395-397-401-403-405-407-419-423- 449-455-459-467-471-499-130040- TX Read more

WW 29 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 122110Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 29 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Northwest Louisiana North-central and Northeast Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 410 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon and early evening. Supercells should pose a threat for large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. A small cluster may eventually develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds of 60-70 mph through this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Corsicana TX to 45 miles north northeast of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Gleason Read more

MD 0163 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 29... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 29... Valid 122327Z - 130130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 29 continues. SUMMARY...Local risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts continues across portions of eastern Texas in and near WW #29. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken band of generally short-lived/disorganized updrafts near/ahead of a central Texas dryline. Daytime heating/warm temperatures have allowed what low-level moisture previously existed to become well-mixed through a fairly deep afternoon boundary layer. Therefore, despite steep mid-level lapse rates, storms have thus far struggled to organize -- likely in part due to the relatively dry troposphere. With that said, storms are approaching an axis of greater mixed-layer CAPE (per RAP-based objective analysis). As such, and given the favorable background kinematic environment, risk for hail and locally damaging wind gusts continues within WW #29. ..Goss.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30279776 31039710 31659609 32329583 32779499 32769409 31619420 30639450 30099651 30279776 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 12 23:00:07 UTC 2025.

WW 0029 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 29 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/12/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 29 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-073-091-130040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER LAC013-015-017-027-031-043-049-061-069-081-085-119-127-130040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER WINN TXC001-005-037-041-051-063-067-073-085-113-119-139-145-147-159- 161-183-185-203-213-217-223-225-231-257-277-289-293-309-313-315- 331-343-347-349-365-373-379-387-395-397-401-403-405-407-419-423- 449-455-459-467-471-499-130040- TX Read more

WW 29 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 122110Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 29 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Northwest Louisiana North-central and Northeast Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 410 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon and early evening. Supercells should pose a threat for large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. A small cluster may eventually develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds of 60-70 mph through this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Corsicana TX to 45 miles north northeast of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0029 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 29 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/12/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 29 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-073-091-122340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER LAC013-015-017-027-031-043-049-061-069-081-085-119-127-122340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER WINN TXC001-005-037-041-051-063-067-073-085-113-119-139-145-147-159- 161-183-185-203-213-217-223-225-231-257-277-289-293-309-313-315- 331-343-347-349-365-373-379-387-395-397-401-403-405-407-419-423- 449-455-459-467-471-499-122340- TX Read more

MD 0162 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CNTRL/N CNTRL INTO NERN TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0162 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Areas affected...cntrl/n cntrl into nern Texas...southeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121941Z - 122215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development appears possible as early as 4-5 PM CDT near the I-35 corridor, before spreading eastward accompanied by increasing potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. It is possible a severe weather watch may be needed by early evening. DISCUSSION...Beneath warm, dry lower/mid-tropospheric air, associated with an elevated mixed-layer, boundary-layer based moistening has occurred across much of southern through eastern Texas. This has been modest though, with higher precipitable water content (in excess of .75 inches) confined to a narrow corridor inland of mid/upper Texas coastal areas, and tending to advect north-northeastward across eastern Texas. Westward into a developing axis of stronger daytime heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing, roughly northwest of Del Rio into areas west of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, an initially diffuse dryline may sharpen while shifting into/across the Interstate 35 corridor of central/North Texas. However, even as surface dew points begin to mix out across this corridor, model forecast soundings indicate that cooling on the leading edge of a mid-level cold core (temperatures of -20 to -22 around 500 mb) emerging from the Pecos Valley/Texas South Plains will steepen lapse rates, erode inhibition and still support mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Generally within the exit region of a 70+ kt cyclonic mid-level jet, it appears that this could become supportive of scattered vigorous thunderstorm development as early as 21-22Z. Initially, stronger storms may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. As this activity spreads east of the Interstate-35 corridor into early evening, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear, there appears potential for substantive further intensification as it gradually encounters the better low-level moisture return. This probably will include at least a period with increasing risk for large, potentially damaging hail, before convection possibly begins to consolidate into an organizing cluster later this evening. ..Kerr.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 31329751 32089765 32719777 33589719 34719623 34869443 32539506 31629503 30939564 30659678 31329751 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A wildfire outbreak is possible across portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS on Day 3/Friday -- where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. Thereafter, a very active fire-weather pattern will continue across portions of the southern and central Plains through the extended forecast period. ...Day 3/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... A powerful, negative-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move northeastward from the southern Rockies/High Plains to the Midwest on Day 3/Friday. Within the base of the trough, a 120+ kt midlevel southwesterly jet streak will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across the southern and central Plains. At the same time, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains, resulting in a very tight pressure gradient behind a related dryline across the region. These factors will yield an expansive area of 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) and lower teens RH -- favoring extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, the best alignment of these volatile meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to extend from portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS -- where a wildfire outbreak will be possible. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Plains... Behind the aforementioned synoptic system, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will overspread a warm/dry post-frontal air mass across the southern Plains. As a result, very strong west-northwesterly surface winds will develop amid low RH, and critical (potentially high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. ...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday - Southern and Central Plains... The next large-scale trough will move eastward across the West during this time frame, supporting lee cyclogenesis and dry/windy conditions across portions of the southern and central Plains each day. Despite differences in timing of the midlevel trough among medium-range guidance, the overall pattern will favor a continuation of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Monday and Day 7/Tuesday, and these probabilities may need to be adjusted/expanded in future outlooks as medium-range guidance comes into better agreement. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A wildfire outbreak is possible across portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS on Day 3/Friday -- where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. Thereafter, a very active fire-weather pattern will continue across portions of the southern and central Plains through the extended forecast period. ...Day 3/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... A powerful, negative-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move northeastward from the southern Rockies/High Plains to the Midwest on Day 3/Friday. Within the base of the trough, a 120+ kt midlevel southwesterly jet streak will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across the southern and central Plains. At the same time, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains, resulting in a very tight pressure gradient behind a related dryline across the region. These factors will yield an expansive area of 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) and lower teens RH -- favoring extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, the best alignment of these volatile meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to extend from portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS -- where a wildfire outbreak will be possible. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Plains... Behind the aforementioned synoptic system, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will overspread a warm/dry post-frontal air mass across the southern Plains. As a result, very strong west-northwesterly surface winds will develop amid low RH, and critical (potentially high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. ...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday - Southern and Central Plains... The next large-scale trough will move eastward across the West during this time frame, supporting lee cyclogenesis and dry/windy conditions across portions of the southern and central Plains each day. Despite differences in timing of the midlevel trough among medium-range guidance, the overall pattern will favor a continuation of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Monday and Day 7/Tuesday, and these probabilities may need to be adjusted/expanded in future outlooks as medium-range guidance comes into better agreement. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A wildfire outbreak is possible across portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS on Day 3/Friday -- where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. Thereafter, a very active fire-weather pattern will continue across portions of the southern and central Plains through the extended forecast period. ...Day 3/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... A powerful, negative-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move northeastward from the southern Rockies/High Plains to the Midwest on Day 3/Friday. Within the base of the trough, a 120+ kt midlevel southwesterly jet streak will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across the southern and central Plains. At the same time, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains, resulting in a very tight pressure gradient behind a related dryline across the region. These factors will yield an expansive area of 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) and lower teens RH -- favoring extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, the best alignment of these volatile meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to extend from portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS -- where a wildfire outbreak will be possible. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Plains... Behind the aforementioned synoptic system, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will overspread a warm/dry post-frontal air mass across the southern Plains. As a result, very strong west-northwesterly surface winds will develop amid low RH, and critical (potentially high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. ...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday - Southern and Central Plains... The next large-scale trough will move eastward across the West during this time frame, supporting lee cyclogenesis and dry/windy conditions across portions of the southern and central Plains each day. Despite differences in timing of the midlevel trough among medium-range guidance, the overall pattern will favor a continuation of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Monday and Day 7/Tuesday, and these probabilities may need to be adjusted/expanded in future outlooks as medium-range guidance comes into better agreement. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A wildfire outbreak is possible across portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS on Day 3/Friday -- where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. Thereafter, a very active fire-weather pattern will continue across portions of the southern and central Plains through the extended forecast period. ...Day 3/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... A powerful, negative-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move northeastward from the southern Rockies/High Plains to the Midwest on Day 3/Friday. Within the base of the trough, a 120+ kt midlevel southwesterly jet streak will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across the southern and central Plains. At the same time, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains, resulting in a very tight pressure gradient behind a related dryline across the region. These factors will yield an expansive area of 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) and lower teens RH -- favoring extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, the best alignment of these volatile meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to extend from portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS -- where a wildfire outbreak will be possible. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Plains... Behind the aforementioned synoptic system, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will overspread a warm/dry post-frontal air mass across the southern Plains. As a result, very strong west-northwesterly surface winds will develop amid low RH, and critical (potentially high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. ...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday - Southern and Central Plains... The next large-scale trough will move eastward across the West during this time frame, supporting lee cyclogenesis and dry/windy conditions across portions of the southern and central Plains each day. Despite differences in timing of the midlevel trough among medium-range guidance, the overall pattern will favor a continuation of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Monday and Day 7/Tuesday, and these probabilities may need to be adjusted/expanded in future outlooks as medium-range guidance comes into better agreement. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A wildfire outbreak is possible across portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS on Day 3/Friday -- where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. Thereafter, a very active fire-weather pattern will continue across portions of the southern and central Plains through the extended forecast period. ...Day 3/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... A powerful, negative-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move northeastward from the southern Rockies/High Plains to the Midwest on Day 3/Friday. Within the base of the trough, a 120+ kt midlevel southwesterly jet streak will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across the southern and central Plains. At the same time, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains, resulting in a very tight pressure gradient behind a related dryline across the region. These factors will yield an expansive area of 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) and lower teens RH -- favoring extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, the best alignment of these volatile meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to extend from portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS -- where a wildfire outbreak will be possible. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Plains... Behind the aforementioned synoptic system, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will overspread a warm/dry post-frontal air mass across the southern Plains. As a result, very strong west-northwesterly surface winds will develop amid low RH, and critical (potentially high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. ...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday - Southern and Central Plains... The next large-scale trough will move eastward across the West during this time frame, supporting lee cyclogenesis and dry/windy conditions across portions of the southern and central Plains each day. Despite differences in timing of the midlevel trough among medium-range guidance, the overall pattern will favor a continuation of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Monday and Day 7/Tuesday, and these probabilities may need to be adjusted/expanded in future outlooks as medium-range guidance comes into better agreement. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A wildfire outbreak is possible across portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS on Day 3/Friday -- where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. Thereafter, a very active fire-weather pattern will continue across portions of the southern and central Plains through the extended forecast period. ...Day 3/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... A powerful, negative-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move northeastward from the southern Rockies/High Plains to the Midwest on Day 3/Friday. Within the base of the trough, a 120+ kt midlevel southwesterly jet streak will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across the southern and central Plains. At the same time, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains, resulting in a very tight pressure gradient behind a related dryline across the region. These factors will yield an expansive area of 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) and lower teens RH -- favoring extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, the best alignment of these volatile meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to extend from portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS -- where a wildfire outbreak will be possible. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Plains... Behind the aforementioned synoptic system, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will overspread a warm/dry post-frontal air mass across the southern Plains. As a result, very strong west-northwesterly surface winds will develop amid low RH, and critical (potentially high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. ...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday - Southern and Central Plains... The next large-scale trough will move eastward across the West during this time frame, supporting lee cyclogenesis and dry/windy conditions across portions of the southern and central Plains each day. Despite differences in timing of the midlevel trough among medium-range guidance, the overall pattern will favor a continuation of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Monday and Day 7/Tuesday, and these probabilities may need to be adjusted/expanded in future outlooks as medium-range guidance comes into better agreement. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A wildfire outbreak is possible across portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS on Day 3/Friday -- where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. Thereafter, a very active fire-weather pattern will continue across portions of the southern and central Plains through the extended forecast period. ...Day 3/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... A powerful, negative-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move northeastward from the southern Rockies/High Plains to the Midwest on Day 3/Friday. Within the base of the trough, a 120+ kt midlevel southwesterly jet streak will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across the southern and central Plains. At the same time, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains, resulting in a very tight pressure gradient behind a related dryline across the region. These factors will yield an expansive area of 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) and lower teens RH -- favoring extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, the best alignment of these volatile meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to extend from portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS -- where a wildfire outbreak will be possible. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Plains... Behind the aforementioned synoptic system, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will overspread a warm/dry post-frontal air mass across the southern Plains. As a result, very strong west-northwesterly surface winds will develop amid low RH, and critical (potentially high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. ...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday - Southern and Central Plains... The next large-scale trough will move eastward across the West during this time frame, supporting lee cyclogenesis and dry/windy conditions across portions of the southern and central Plains each day. Despite differences in timing of the midlevel trough among medium-range guidance, the overall pattern will favor a continuation of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Monday and Day 7/Tuesday, and these probabilities may need to be adjusted/expanded in future outlooks as medium-range guidance comes into better agreement. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A wildfire outbreak is possible across portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS on Day 3/Friday -- where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. Thereafter, a very active fire-weather pattern will continue across portions of the southern and central Plains through the extended forecast period. ...Day 3/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... A powerful, negative-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move northeastward from the southern Rockies/High Plains to the Midwest on Day 3/Friday. Within the base of the trough, a 120+ kt midlevel southwesterly jet streak will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across the southern and central Plains. At the same time, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains, resulting in a very tight pressure gradient behind a related dryline across the region. These factors will yield an expansive area of 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) and lower teens RH -- favoring extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, the best alignment of these volatile meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to extend from portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS -- where a wildfire outbreak will be possible. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Plains... Behind the aforementioned synoptic system, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will overspread a warm/dry post-frontal air mass across the southern Plains. As a result, very strong west-northwesterly surface winds will develop amid low RH, and critical (potentially high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. ...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday - Southern and Central Plains... The next large-scale trough will move eastward across the West during this time frame, supporting lee cyclogenesis and dry/windy conditions across portions of the southern and central Plains each day. Despite differences in timing of the midlevel trough among medium-range guidance, the overall pattern will favor a continuation of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Monday and Day 7/Tuesday, and these probabilities may need to be adjusted/expanded in future outlooks as medium-range guidance comes into better agreement. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A wildfire outbreak is possible across portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS on Day 3/Friday -- where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. Thereafter, a very active fire-weather pattern will continue across portions of the southern and central Plains through the extended forecast period. ...Day 3/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... A powerful, negative-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move northeastward from the southern Rockies/High Plains to the Midwest on Day 3/Friday. Within the base of the trough, a 120+ kt midlevel southwesterly jet streak will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across the southern and central Plains. At the same time, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains, resulting in a very tight pressure gradient behind a related dryline across the region. These factors will yield an expansive area of 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) and lower teens RH -- favoring extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, the best alignment of these volatile meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to extend from portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS -- where a wildfire outbreak will be possible. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Plains... Behind the aforementioned synoptic system, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will overspread a warm/dry post-frontal air mass across the southern Plains. As a result, very strong west-northwesterly surface winds will develop amid low RH, and critical (potentially high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. ...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday - Southern and Central Plains... The next large-scale trough will move eastward across the West during this time frame, supporting lee cyclogenesis and dry/windy conditions across portions of the southern and central Plains each day. Despite differences in timing of the midlevel trough among medium-range guidance, the overall pattern will favor a continuation of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Monday and Day 7/Tuesday, and these probabilities may need to be adjusted/expanded in future outlooks as medium-range guidance comes into better agreement. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A wildfire outbreak is possible across portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS on Day 3/Friday -- where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. Thereafter, a very active fire-weather pattern will continue across portions of the southern and central Plains through the extended forecast period. ...Day 3/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... A powerful, negative-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move northeastward from the southern Rockies/High Plains to the Midwest on Day 3/Friday. Within the base of the trough, a 120+ kt midlevel southwesterly jet streak will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across the southern and central Plains. At the same time, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains, resulting in a very tight pressure gradient behind a related dryline across the region. These factors will yield an expansive area of 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) and lower teens RH -- favoring extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, the best alignment of these volatile meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to extend from portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS -- where a wildfire outbreak will be possible. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Plains... Behind the aforementioned synoptic system, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will overspread a warm/dry post-frontal air mass across the southern Plains. As a result, very strong west-northwesterly surface winds will develop amid low RH, and critical (potentially high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. ...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday - Southern and Central Plains... The next large-scale trough will move eastward across the West during this time frame, supporting lee cyclogenesis and dry/windy conditions across portions of the southern and central Plains each day. Despite differences in timing of the midlevel trough among medium-range guidance, the overall pattern will favor a continuation of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Monday and Day 7/Tuesday, and these probabilities may need to be adjusted/expanded in future outlooks as medium-range guidance comes into better agreement. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A wildfire outbreak is possible across portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS on Day 3/Friday -- where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. Thereafter, a very active fire-weather pattern will continue across portions of the southern and central Plains through the extended forecast period. ...Day 3/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... A powerful, negative-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move northeastward from the southern Rockies/High Plains to the Midwest on Day 3/Friday. Within the base of the trough, a 120+ kt midlevel southwesterly jet streak will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across the southern and central Plains. At the same time, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains, resulting in a very tight pressure gradient behind a related dryline across the region. These factors will yield an expansive area of 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) and lower teens RH -- favoring extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, the best alignment of these volatile meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to extend from portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS -- where a wildfire outbreak will be possible. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Plains... Behind the aforementioned synoptic system, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will overspread a warm/dry post-frontal air mass across the southern Plains. As a result, very strong west-northwesterly surface winds will develop amid low RH, and critical (potentially high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. ...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday - Southern and Central Plains... The next large-scale trough will move eastward across the West during this time frame, supporting lee cyclogenesis and dry/windy conditions across portions of the southern and central Plains each day. Despite differences in timing of the midlevel trough among medium-range guidance, the overall pattern will favor a continuation of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Monday and Day 7/Tuesday, and these probabilities may need to be adjusted/expanded in future outlooks as medium-range guidance comes into better agreement. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A wildfire outbreak is possible across portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS on Day 3/Friday -- where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. Thereafter, a very active fire-weather pattern will continue across portions of the southern and central Plains through the extended forecast period. ...Day 3/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... A powerful, negative-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move northeastward from the southern Rockies/High Plains to the Midwest on Day 3/Friday. Within the base of the trough, a 120+ kt midlevel southwesterly jet streak will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across the southern and central Plains. At the same time, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains, resulting in a very tight pressure gradient behind a related dryline across the region. These factors will yield an expansive area of 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) and lower teens RH -- favoring extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, the best alignment of these volatile meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to extend from portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS -- where a wildfire outbreak will be possible. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Plains... Behind the aforementioned synoptic system, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will overspread a warm/dry post-frontal air mass across the southern Plains. As a result, very strong west-northwesterly surface winds will develop amid low RH, and critical (potentially high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. ...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday - Southern and Central Plains... The next large-scale trough will move eastward across the West during this time frame, supporting lee cyclogenesis and dry/windy conditions across portions of the southern and central Plains each day. Despite differences in timing of the midlevel trough among medium-range guidance, the overall pattern will favor a continuation of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Monday and Day 7/Tuesday, and these probabilities may need to be adjusted/expanded in future outlooks as medium-range guidance comes into better agreement. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more