Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds (some greater than 65 kt), several tornadoes (some strong), and large hail will all be possible. ...Synopsis... An intense cyclone will develop from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this system rapidly deepens, an intense jet streak (100+ kt at 500 mb) will overspread the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a large area covering much of the MS Valley vicinity will see 850-700 mb southwesterly flow around 65-80 kt. Southerly low-level flow will transport mid 50s dewpoints as far north as IA/northern IL (decreasing with northward extent across the Upper Midwest). Richer boundary layer moisture (60s F dewpoints) will be confined to the Lower MS Valley and Deep South/TN Valley, though near-60 F dewpoints may reach the MS/OH River confluence. Rapidly developing convection is expected to develop by late afternoon from near a surface low over eastern NE and arcing east/southeast along a dryline into the Ozarks. Convection will develop northeast across the Mid-MS valley, with additional storms develop with southward extent into the Mid-South and TN Valley during the nighttime hours. ...Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Lower OH/TN Valleys... Cold temperatures aloft near the main upper low will support steep midlevel lapse rates. While boundary moisture will be modest, MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. This will support rapid storm development amid intense deep-layer shear. Heating ahead of the dryline also will support some boundary layer mixing and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As a result, a rapidly developing QLCS is expected. Convection will shift east/northeast into the nighttime hours. Given fast storm motion and the intensity of deep-layer flow, swaths of significant wind gusts (greater than 65 kt) are anticipated over a large part of the Mid-MS Valley. A gradual weakening of convection is expected after midnight with north and east extent. With southward extent from parts of eastern MO/western IL into the Mid-South, some potential for a mix of linear convection and supercells appears possible. Vertical shear will support tornadoes within linear convection. The environment will especially be favorable for strong tornadoes with any supercells that develop. This activity may develop a little later than initial convection further north, with much of the threat being after dark from east-central MO/west-central IL southward to western TN. Given the intensity of maximum gusts expected, and widespread coverage of damaging gusts, a Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been included for portions of the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. ...MS/AL/TN Overnight... Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to possibly upper 60s F dewpoints northward into the TN Valley overnight. Neutral to modest height falls are expected and a persistent, strong low-level jet will overspread the region. Forecast soundings indicate very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, which would support intense supercells. Forcing mechanisms will be somewhat modest over the region, which may limit convective coverage, and a somewhat more conditional risk. However, any storms that develop within this environment overnight will pose a risk for strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging gusts. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity... The severe risk will become more marginal into MN/WI/MI. Strong deep layer flow will overspread the region and any convection will pose a risk of strong gusts. An additional risk for hail also will exist, especially with any elevated convection near the warm front overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds (some greater than 65 kt), several tornadoes (some strong), and large hail will all be possible. ...Synopsis... An intense cyclone will develop from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this system rapidly deepens, an intense jet streak (100+ kt at 500 mb) will overspread the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a large area covering much of the MS Valley vicinity will see 850-700 mb southwesterly flow around 65-80 kt. Southerly low-level flow will transport mid 50s dewpoints as far north as IA/northern IL (decreasing with northward extent across the Upper Midwest). Richer boundary layer moisture (60s F dewpoints) will be confined to the Lower MS Valley and Deep South/TN Valley, though near-60 F dewpoints may reach the MS/OH River confluence. Rapidly developing convection is expected to develop by late afternoon from near a surface low over eastern NE and arcing east/southeast along a dryline into the Ozarks. Convection will develop northeast across the Mid-MS valley, with additional storms develop with southward extent into the Mid-South and TN Valley during the nighttime hours. ...Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Lower OH/TN Valleys... Cold temperatures aloft near the main upper low will support steep midlevel lapse rates. While boundary moisture will be modest, MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. This will support rapid storm development amid intense deep-layer shear. Heating ahead of the dryline also will support some boundary layer mixing and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As a result, a rapidly developing QLCS is expected. Convection will shift east/northeast into the nighttime hours. Given fast storm motion and the intensity of deep-layer flow, swaths of significant wind gusts (greater than 65 kt) are anticipated over a large part of the Mid-MS Valley. A gradual weakening of convection is expected after midnight with north and east extent. With southward extent from parts of eastern MO/western IL into the Mid-South, some potential for a mix of linear convection and supercells appears possible. Vertical shear will support tornadoes within linear convection. The environment will especially be favorable for strong tornadoes with any supercells that develop. This activity may develop a little later than initial convection further north, with much of the threat being after dark from east-central MO/west-central IL southward to western TN. Given the intensity of maximum gusts expected, and widespread coverage of damaging gusts, a Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been included for portions of the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. ...MS/AL/TN Overnight... Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to possibly upper 60s F dewpoints northward into the TN Valley overnight. Neutral to modest height falls are expected and a persistent, strong low-level jet will overspread the region. Forecast soundings indicate very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, which would support intense supercells. Forcing mechanisms will be somewhat modest over the region, which may limit convective coverage, and a somewhat more conditional risk. However, any storms that develop within this environment overnight will pose a risk for strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging gusts. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity... The severe risk will become more marginal into MN/WI/MI. Strong deep layer flow will overspread the region and any convection will pose a risk of strong gusts. An additional risk for hail also will exist, especially with any elevated convection near the warm front overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds (some greater than 65 kt), several tornadoes (some strong), and large hail will all be possible. ...Synopsis... An intense cyclone will develop from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this system rapidly deepens, an intense jet streak (100+ kt at 500 mb) will overspread the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a large area covering much of the MS Valley vicinity will see 850-700 mb southwesterly flow around 65-80 kt. Southerly low-level flow will transport mid 50s dewpoints as far north as IA/northern IL (decreasing with northward extent across the Upper Midwest). Richer boundary layer moisture (60s F dewpoints) will be confined to the Lower MS Valley and Deep South/TN Valley, though near-60 F dewpoints may reach the MS/OH River confluence. Rapidly developing convection is expected to develop by late afternoon from near a surface low over eastern NE and arcing east/southeast along a dryline into the Ozarks. Convection will develop northeast across the Mid-MS valley, with additional storms develop with southward extent into the Mid-South and TN Valley during the nighttime hours. ...Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Lower OH/TN Valleys... Cold temperatures aloft near the main upper low will support steep midlevel lapse rates. While boundary moisture will be modest, MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. This will support rapid storm development amid intense deep-layer shear. Heating ahead of the dryline also will support some boundary layer mixing and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As a result, a rapidly developing QLCS is expected. Convection will shift east/northeast into the nighttime hours. Given fast storm motion and the intensity of deep-layer flow, swaths of significant wind gusts (greater than 65 kt) are anticipated over a large part of the Mid-MS Valley. A gradual weakening of convection is expected after midnight with north and east extent. With southward extent from parts of eastern MO/western IL into the Mid-South, some potential for a mix of linear convection and supercells appears possible. Vertical shear will support tornadoes within linear convection. The environment will especially be favorable for strong tornadoes with any supercells that develop. This activity may develop a little later than initial convection further north, with much of the threat being after dark from east-central MO/west-central IL southward to western TN. Given the intensity of maximum gusts expected, and widespread coverage of damaging gusts, a Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been included for portions of the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. ...MS/AL/TN Overnight... Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to possibly upper 60s F dewpoints northward into the TN Valley overnight. Neutral to modest height falls are expected and a persistent, strong low-level jet will overspread the region. Forecast soundings indicate very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, which would support intense supercells. Forcing mechanisms will be somewhat modest over the region, which may limit convective coverage, and a somewhat more conditional risk. However, any storms that develop within this environment overnight will pose a risk for strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging gusts. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity... The severe risk will become more marginal into MN/WI/MI. Strong deep layer flow will overspread the region and any convection will pose a risk of strong gusts. An additional risk for hail also will exist, especially with any elevated convection near the warm front overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds (some greater than 65 kt), several tornadoes (some strong), and large hail will all be possible. ...Synopsis... An intense cyclone will develop from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this system rapidly deepens, an intense jet streak (100+ kt at 500 mb) will overspread the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a large area covering much of the MS Valley vicinity will see 850-700 mb southwesterly flow around 65-80 kt. Southerly low-level flow will transport mid 50s dewpoints as far north as IA/northern IL (decreasing with northward extent across the Upper Midwest). Richer boundary layer moisture (60s F dewpoints) will be confined to the Lower MS Valley and Deep South/TN Valley, though near-60 F dewpoints may reach the MS/OH River confluence. Rapidly developing convection is expected to develop by late afternoon from near a surface low over eastern NE and arcing east/southeast along a dryline into the Ozarks. Convection will develop northeast across the Mid-MS valley, with additional storms develop with southward extent into the Mid-South and TN Valley during the nighttime hours. ...Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Lower OH/TN Valleys... Cold temperatures aloft near the main upper low will support steep midlevel lapse rates. While boundary moisture will be modest, MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. This will support rapid storm development amid intense deep-layer shear. Heating ahead of the dryline also will support some boundary layer mixing and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As a result, a rapidly developing QLCS is expected. Convection will shift east/northeast into the nighttime hours. Given fast storm motion and the intensity of deep-layer flow, swaths of significant wind gusts (greater than 65 kt) are anticipated over a large part of the Mid-MS Valley. A gradual weakening of convection is expected after midnight with north and east extent. With southward extent from parts of eastern MO/western IL into the Mid-South, some potential for a mix of linear convection and supercells appears possible. Vertical shear will support tornadoes within linear convection. The environment will especially be favorable for strong tornadoes with any supercells that develop. This activity may develop a little later than initial convection further north, with much of the threat being after dark from east-central MO/west-central IL southward to western TN. Given the intensity of maximum gusts expected, and widespread coverage of damaging gusts, a Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been included for portions of the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. ...MS/AL/TN Overnight... Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to possibly upper 60s F dewpoints northward into the TN Valley overnight. Neutral to modest height falls are expected and a persistent, strong low-level jet will overspread the region. Forecast soundings indicate very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, which would support intense supercells. Forcing mechanisms will be somewhat modest over the region, which may limit convective coverage, and a somewhat more conditional risk. However, any storms that develop within this environment overnight will pose a risk for strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging gusts. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity... The severe risk will become more marginal into MN/WI/MI. Strong deep layer flow will overspread the region and any convection will pose a risk of strong gusts. An additional risk for hail also will exist, especially with any elevated convection near the warm front overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more

MD 0165 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0903 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Sierra over central California Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 130203Z - 130600Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow should continue over the next several hours, with snowfall rates potentially increasing to over 2 inches per hour soon. DISCUSSION...Deep-layer moisture and ascent persists across portions of California into the Great Basin with the approach of a potent upper trough. Deep-layer cold-air advection with the upper trough's approach is encouraging the column to cool to the freezing mark over higher elevations of the sierra. Here, surface temperatures are already dipping into the mid 30s F, where the KTRK ASOS recently reported heavy snow. The current thinking is that snowfall rates should only continue to increase with increasing lift within a moistening, cooling column. Synoptic-driven ascent, combined with mesoscale orographic lift, will support heavy snowfall rates over the higher elevations of the Sierra, with over 2 inch/hour snowfall rates possible in a few locations. ..Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO... LAT...LON 37491907 37661942 38071995 38842058 39802121 39962096 39872054 39392020 38071916 37661886 37541889 37491907 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will advance eastward out of the southern Plains and into the southeast states today. Thunderstorm activity may be ongoing across portions of southern Arkansas into northern Mississippi at the beginning of the period in response to this system. Across the western US, a deepening trough will begin to move inland with a belt of strong mid to upper level flow extending across southern California into southern Arizona. A cold front will shift eastward across southern California into Arizona through the period. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... Early in the period, remnant thunderstorm activity from the previous period may be ongoing across northern Mississippi into far western Alabama. This remains somewhat uncertain, as thunderstorms struggle to get going across central Arkansas this morning. Should activity continue into Mississippi early this morning, it may pose some risk of hail and damaging wind early in the period. By the afternoon, diurnal heating across southern Alabama into western Georgia should yield modest MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with steepening lapse rates. As mid-level forcing overspreads the region, additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible from southern Alabama into western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, with potential for localized damaging wind and hail with stronger cores. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Thornton/Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will advance eastward out of the southern Plains and into the southeast states today. Thunderstorm activity may be ongoing across portions of southern Arkansas into northern Mississippi at the beginning of the period in response to this system. Across the western US, a deepening trough will begin to move inland with a belt of strong mid to upper level flow extending across southern California into southern Arizona. A cold front will shift eastward across southern California into Arizona through the period. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... Early in the period, remnant thunderstorm activity from the previous period may be ongoing across northern Mississippi into far western Alabama. This remains somewhat uncertain, as thunderstorms struggle to get going across central Arkansas this morning. Should activity continue into Mississippi early this morning, it may pose some risk of hail and damaging wind early in the period. By the afternoon, diurnal heating across southern Alabama into western Georgia should yield modest MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with steepening lapse rates. As mid-level forcing overspreads the region, additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible from southern Alabama into western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, with potential for localized damaging wind and hail with stronger cores. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Thornton/Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will advance eastward out of the southern Plains and into the southeast states today. Thunderstorm activity may be ongoing across portions of southern Arkansas into northern Mississippi at the beginning of the period in response to this system. Across the western US, a deepening trough will begin to move inland with a belt of strong mid to upper level flow extending across southern California into southern Arizona. A cold front will shift eastward across southern California into Arizona through the period. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... Early in the period, remnant thunderstorm activity from the previous period may be ongoing across northern Mississippi into far western Alabama. This remains somewhat uncertain, as thunderstorms struggle to get going across central Arkansas this morning. Should activity continue into Mississippi early this morning, it may pose some risk of hail and damaging wind early in the period. By the afternoon, diurnal heating across southern Alabama into western Georgia should yield modest MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with steepening lapse rates. As mid-level forcing overspreads the region, additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible from southern Alabama into western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, with potential for localized damaging wind and hail with stronger cores. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Thornton/Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will advance eastward out of the southern Plains and into the southeast states today. Thunderstorm activity may be ongoing across portions of southern Arkansas into northern Mississippi at the beginning of the period in response to this system. Across the western US, a deepening trough will begin to move inland with a belt of strong mid to upper level flow extending across southern California into southern Arizona. A cold front will shift eastward across southern California into Arizona through the period. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... Early in the period, remnant thunderstorm activity from the previous period may be ongoing across northern Mississippi into far western Alabama. This remains somewhat uncertain, as thunderstorms struggle to get going across central Arkansas this morning. Should activity continue into Mississippi early this morning, it may pose some risk of hail and damaging wind early in the period. By the afternoon, diurnal heating across southern Alabama into western Georgia should yield modest MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with steepening lapse rates. As mid-level forcing overspreads the region, additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible from southern Alabama into western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, with potential for localized damaging wind and hail with stronger cores. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Thornton/Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will advance eastward out of the southern Plains and into the southeast states today. Thunderstorm activity may be ongoing across portions of southern Arkansas into northern Mississippi at the beginning of the period in response to this system. Across the western US, a deepening trough will begin to move inland with a belt of strong mid to upper level flow extending across southern California into southern Arizona. A cold front will shift eastward across southern California into Arizona through the period. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... Early in the period, remnant thunderstorm activity from the previous period may be ongoing across northern Mississippi into far western Alabama. This remains somewhat uncertain, as thunderstorms struggle to get going across central Arkansas this morning. Should activity continue into Mississippi early this morning, it may pose some risk of hail and damaging wind early in the period. By the afternoon, diurnal heating across southern Alabama into western Georgia should yield modest MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with steepening lapse rates. As mid-level forcing overspreads the region, additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible from southern Alabama into western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, with potential for localized damaging wind and hail with stronger cores. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Thornton/Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will advance eastward out of the southern Plains and into the southeast states today. Thunderstorm activity may be ongoing across portions of southern Arkansas into northern Mississippi at the beginning of the period in response to this system. Across the western US, a deepening trough will begin to move inland with a belt of strong mid to upper level flow extending across southern California into southern Arizona. A cold front will shift eastward across southern California into Arizona through the period. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... Early in the period, remnant thunderstorm activity from the previous period may be ongoing across northern Mississippi into far western Alabama. This remains somewhat uncertain, as thunderstorms struggle to get going across central Arkansas this morning. Should activity continue into Mississippi early this morning, it may pose some risk of hail and damaging wind early in the period. By the afternoon, diurnal heating across southern Alabama into western Georgia should yield modest MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with steepening lapse rates. As mid-level forcing overspreads the region, additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible from southern Alabama into western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, with potential for localized damaging wind and hail with stronger cores. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Thornton/Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will advance eastward out of the southern Plains and into the southeast states today. Thunderstorm activity may be ongoing across portions of southern Arkansas into northern Mississippi at the beginning of the period in response to this system. Across the western US, a deepening trough will begin to move inland with a belt of strong mid to upper level flow extending across southern California into southern Arizona. A cold front will shift eastward across southern California into Arizona through the period. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... Early in the period, remnant thunderstorm activity from the previous period may be ongoing across northern Mississippi into far western Alabama. This remains somewhat uncertain, as thunderstorms struggle to get going across central Arkansas this morning. Should activity continue into Mississippi early this morning, it may pose some risk of hail and damaging wind early in the period. By the afternoon, diurnal heating across southern Alabama into western Georgia should yield modest MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with steepening lapse rates. As mid-level forcing overspreads the region, additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible from southern Alabama into western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, with potential for localized damaging wind and hail with stronger cores. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Thornton/Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 Read more

MD 0164 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 29... FOR EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0164 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Areas affected...eastern Texas into western Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 29... Valid 130126Z - 130230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 29 continues. SUMMARY...Severe-weather potential may linger locally for another 1 to 2 hours with the ongoing convective band over eastern Texas. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a semi-continuous band of storms advancing eastward across eastern Texas -- and remains largely sub-severe. The convection is moving through the axis of most substantial instability at this time, per latest RAP-based objective analysis, which suggests that lingering severe risk should begin to diminish over the next 1 to 2 hours. This is further supported by evening RAOBs, which -- upon continued/gradual boundary-layer cooling -- suggests an environment becoming increasingly less supportive of any ramp-up on convective intensity/severe potential. ..Goss.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX... LAT...LON 32399387 32429256 31529250 30359451 30019680 30459644 31419501 32159446 32399387 Read more

MD 0163 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 29... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 29... Valid 122327Z - 130130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 29 continues. SUMMARY...Local risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts continues across portions of eastern Texas in and near WW #29. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken band of generally short-lived/disorganized updrafts near/ahead of a central Texas dryline. Daytime heating/warm temperatures have allowed what low-level moisture previously existed to become well-mixed through a fairly deep afternoon boundary layer. Therefore, despite steep mid-level lapse rates, storms have thus far struggled to organize -- likely in part due to the relatively dry troposphere. With that said, storms are approaching an axis of greater mixed-layer CAPE (per RAP-based objective analysis). As such, and given the favorable background kinematic environment, risk for hail and locally damaging wind gusts continues within WW #29. ..Goss.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30279776 31039710 31659609 32329583 32779499 32769409 31619420 30639450 30099651 30279776 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of east-central Texas as of 00z. This activity has struggled to maintain intensity, likely owing to dry mid-levels and surface inhibition. The mid-level wave continues to move across this region with forcing for ascent continuing over the next few hours, with potential for additional development across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. Ongoing storms are moving into a region with relatively better moisture, with dew points in the 60s to mid 50s and an axis of sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) across eastern Texas into western Louisiana. With the loss of daytime heating, storms may continue to struggle, however, gusty winds and hail will remain possible given the steep low to mid-level lapse rates and ample shear. The 00z RAOB from Shreveport, LA shows minimal low level inversion for most unstable parcels, however, MLCIN remains present below 700 mb. A similar thermodynamic profile is noted further north from Little Rock, AR, with strong MLCIN below 700 mb and dry mid-levels. Mid-level cooling aloft is just now spreading eastward across the Red River in southern Oklahoma/Texas which may aid in more organized development. This area into western Arkansas will be the most likely region of additional development over the next couple of hours. Should more robust supercell development occur, the risk for large damaging hail and damaging wind will be possible. ..Thornton/Darrow/Guyer.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of east-central Texas as of 00z. This activity has struggled to maintain intensity, likely owing to dry mid-levels and surface inhibition. The mid-level wave continues to move across this region with forcing for ascent continuing over the next few hours, with potential for additional development across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. Ongoing storms are moving into a region with relatively better moisture, with dew points in the 60s to mid 50s and an axis of sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) across eastern Texas into western Louisiana. With the loss of daytime heating, storms may continue to struggle, however, gusty winds and hail will remain possible given the steep low to mid-level lapse rates and ample shear. The 00z RAOB from Shreveport, LA shows minimal low level inversion for most unstable parcels, however, MLCIN remains present below 700 mb. A similar thermodynamic profile is noted further north from Little Rock, AR, with strong MLCIN below 700 mb and dry mid-levels. Mid-level cooling aloft is just now spreading eastward across the Red River in southern Oklahoma/Texas which may aid in more organized development. This area into western Arkansas will be the most likely region of additional development over the next couple of hours. Should more robust supercell development occur, the risk for large damaging hail and damaging wind will be possible. ..Thornton/Darrow/Guyer.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of east-central Texas as of 00z. This activity has struggled to maintain intensity, likely owing to dry mid-levels and surface inhibition. The mid-level wave continues to move across this region with forcing for ascent continuing over the next few hours, with potential for additional development across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. Ongoing storms are moving into a region with relatively better moisture, with dew points in the 60s to mid 50s and an axis of sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) across eastern Texas into western Louisiana. With the loss of daytime heating, storms may continue to struggle, however, gusty winds and hail will remain possible given the steep low to mid-level lapse rates and ample shear. The 00z RAOB from Shreveport, LA shows minimal low level inversion for most unstable parcels, however, MLCIN remains present below 700 mb. A similar thermodynamic profile is noted further north from Little Rock, AR, with strong MLCIN below 700 mb and dry mid-levels. Mid-level cooling aloft is just now spreading eastward across the Red River in southern Oklahoma/Texas which may aid in more organized development. This area into western Arkansas will be the most likely region of additional development over the next couple of hours. Should more robust supercell development occur, the risk for large damaging hail and damaging wind will be possible. ..Thornton/Darrow/Guyer.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of east-central Texas as of 00z. This activity has struggled to maintain intensity, likely owing to dry mid-levels and surface inhibition. The mid-level wave continues to move across this region with forcing for ascent continuing over the next few hours, with potential for additional development across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. Ongoing storms are moving into a region with relatively better moisture, with dew points in the 60s to mid 50s and an axis of sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) across eastern Texas into western Louisiana. With the loss of daytime heating, storms may continue to struggle, however, gusty winds and hail will remain possible given the steep low to mid-level lapse rates and ample shear. The 00z RAOB from Shreveport, LA shows minimal low level inversion for most unstable parcels, however, MLCIN remains present below 700 mb. A similar thermodynamic profile is noted further north from Little Rock, AR, with strong MLCIN below 700 mb and dry mid-levels. Mid-level cooling aloft is just now spreading eastward across the Red River in southern Oklahoma/Texas which may aid in more organized development. This area into western Arkansas will be the most likely region of additional development over the next couple of hours. Should more robust supercell development occur, the risk for large damaging hail and damaging wind will be possible. ..Thornton/Darrow/Guyer.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of east-central Texas as of 00z. This activity has struggled to maintain intensity, likely owing to dry mid-levels and surface inhibition. The mid-level wave continues to move across this region with forcing for ascent continuing over the next few hours, with potential for additional development across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. Ongoing storms are moving into a region with relatively better moisture, with dew points in the 60s to mid 50s and an axis of sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) across eastern Texas into western Louisiana. With the loss of daytime heating, storms may continue to struggle, however, gusty winds and hail will remain possible given the steep low to mid-level lapse rates and ample shear. The 00z RAOB from Shreveport, LA shows minimal low level inversion for most unstable parcels, however, MLCIN remains present below 700 mb. A similar thermodynamic profile is noted further north from Little Rock, AR, with strong MLCIN below 700 mb and dry mid-levels. Mid-level cooling aloft is just now spreading eastward across the Red River in southern Oklahoma/Texas which may aid in more organized development. This area into western Arkansas will be the most likely region of additional development over the next couple of hours. Should more robust supercell development occur, the risk for large damaging hail and damaging wind will be possible. ..Thornton/Darrow/Guyer.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of east-central Texas as of 00z. This activity has struggled to maintain intensity, likely owing to dry mid-levels and surface inhibition. The mid-level wave continues to move across this region with forcing for ascent continuing over the next few hours, with potential for additional development across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. Ongoing storms are moving into a region with relatively better moisture, with dew points in the 60s to mid 50s and an axis of sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) across eastern Texas into western Louisiana. With the loss of daytime heating, storms may continue to struggle, however, gusty winds and hail will remain possible given the steep low to mid-level lapse rates and ample shear. The 00z RAOB from Shreveport, LA shows minimal low level inversion for most unstable parcels, however, MLCIN remains present below 700 mb. A similar thermodynamic profile is noted further north from Little Rock, AR, with strong MLCIN below 700 mb and dry mid-levels. Mid-level cooling aloft is just now spreading eastward across the Red River in southern Oklahoma/Texas which may aid in more organized development. This area into western Arkansas will be the most likely region of additional development over the next couple of hours. Should more robust supercell development occur, the risk for large damaging hail and damaging wind will be possible. ..Thornton/Darrow/Guyer.. 03/13/2025 Read more