Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AAF TO 15 WNW VLD TO 15 WSW VDI TO 35 N VDI TO 40 S AGS. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC079-123-161340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON TAYLOR GAC003-069-107-161-173-185-209-279-161340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON COFFEE EMANUEL JEFF DAVIS LANIER LOWNDES MONTGOMERY TOOMBS GMZ730-755-161340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AAF TO 15 WNW VLD TO 15 WSW VDI TO 35 N VDI TO 40 S AGS. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC079-123-161340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON TAYLOR GAC003-069-107-161-173-185-209-279-161340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON COFFEE EMANUEL JEFF DAVIS LANIER LOWNDES MONTGOMERY TOOMBS GMZ730-755-161340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AAF TO 15 WNW VLD TO 15 WSW VDI TO 35 N VDI TO 40 S AGS. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC079-123-161340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON TAYLOR GAC003-069-107-161-173-185-209-279-161340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON COFFEE EMANUEL JEFF DAVIS LANIER LOWNDES MONTGOMERY TOOMBS GMZ730-755-161340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AAF TO 15 WNW VLD TO 15 WSW VDI TO 35 N VDI TO 40 S AGS. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC079-123-161340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON TAYLOR GAC003-069-107-161-173-185-209-279-161340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON COFFEE EMANUEL JEFF DAVIS LANIER LOWNDES MONTGOMERY TOOMBS GMZ730-755-161340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AAF TO 15 WNW VLD TO 15 WSW VDI TO 35 N VDI TO 40 S AGS. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC079-123-161340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON TAYLOR GAC003-069-107-161-173-185-209-279-161340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON COFFEE EMANUEL JEFF DAVIS LANIER LOWNDES MONTGOMERY TOOMBS GMZ730-755-161340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AAF TO 15 WNW VLD TO 15 WSW VDI TO 35 N VDI TO 40 S AGS. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC079-123-161340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON TAYLOR GAC003-069-107-161-173-185-209-279-161340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON COFFEE EMANUEL JEFF DAVIS LANIER LOWNDES MONTGOMERY TOOMBS GMZ730-755-161340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE Read more

WW 50 TORNADO FL GA SC CW 160615Z - 161400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 50 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Florida Panhandle Southern into Central and Eastern Georgia West-Central South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning from 215 AM until 1000 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A band of severe thunderstorms with embedded supercells and line segments will move east across much of the Watch area tonight into the early morning. The more intense storms will be potentially capable of tornadoes, possibly including a strong tornado or two, and damaging gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles northwest of Augusta GA to 40 miles south southwest of Tallahassee FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 49... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22055. ...Smith Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0052 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0052 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE AAF TO 35 SSE MCN TO 40 S AGS. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC065-073-079-123-129-161240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LEON MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-017-019-027-069-071-075-091-107-155-161-173-175-185-209- 271-275-277-279-283-287-309-321-161240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS COFFEE COLQUITT COOK DODGE EMANUEL IRWIN JEFF DAVIS LANIER LAURENS LOWNDES MONTGOMERY TELFAIR THOMAS TIFT TOOMBS TREUTLEN TURNER WHEELER WORTH Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S AAF TO 15 SSW ABY TO 35 S MCN TO 40 SSW AGS TO 45 N AGS. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC037-039-065-073-077-079-123-129-161140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN GADSDEN JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-017-019-023-027-033-069-071-075-081-091-093-107-131-155- 161-173-175-185-205-209-235-245-271-275-277-279-283-287-309-315- 321-161140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BEN HILL BERRIEN BLECKLEY BROOKS BURKE COFFEE COLQUITT COOK CRISP DODGE DOOLY EMANUEL GRADY IRWIN JEFF DAVIS LANIER LAURENS LOWNDES MITCHELL MONTGOMERY PULASKI RICHMOND TELFAIR Read more

MD 0221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Georgia to south central North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 160930Z - 161030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The potential for occasional wind damage and a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations will spread east of the current watches. A new tornado watch will likely be needed by 10z from southeast Georgia across South Carolina into south central North Carolina. DISCUSSION...A persistent QLCS continues to move eastward toward east central GA and will reach the edge of tornado watch #50 close to 10z. Echo depth and flash rates have decreased some over the past hour, which could be a reflection of the storms getting too far ahead of the destabilization, and weakening forcing for ascent with time. Still, a 70 kt low-level jet and surface temperatures near 70 with low-mid 60s dewpoints suggest that some rejuvenation of the convection will be possible. Given the strong vertical shear profiles, any persistent storms would pose some threat for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. The MD area is being considered for a new tornado watch by about 10z. ..Thompson/Smith.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 33838146 34598094 35248030 35437979 35367929 35107884 34707884 33837965 33208030 31878147 32058210 32528204 33838146 Read more

MD 0220 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 50... FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...East central Georgia to the eastern Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 50... Valid 160843Z - 161015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 50 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for occasional wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will persist through the morning. DISCUSSION...A forced, pre-frontal convective band is moving from central toward east central GA, with the band largely oriented parallel to the deep-layer flow/shear vectors. The QLCS in central GA is moving along the edge of the near-surface destabilization, and close to the 70 kt low-level jet core. Despite the weak near-surface buoyancy, occasional damaging gusts and a tornado or two could occur with embedded circulations, especially more north-south oriented segments. Stronger buoyancy is located farther to the southwest, where 68-70 F dewpoints have spread inland to extreme southwest GA and the eastern FL Panhandle. The more cellular storm mode in this area suggests some potential for occasional supercell structures, though low-level shear will slowly weaken through the morning as the low-level jet develops northeastward toward SC. ..Thompson.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 32928311 33548277 33778217 33568193 32888218 32198252 31598306 31018363 30378419 29948467 29758515 30348515 31708435 32928311 Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0051 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0051 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0051 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0051 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more