Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more