Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, a narrow axis of moisture and weak instability is forecast from the western Great Lakes into the lower Ohio Valley. This corridor of low-level moisture will be the favored location for convective development Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis are only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s F. In spite of this, the exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the region during the mid to late afternoon. This will provide strong lift and deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Any severe threat should remain marginal. On Thursday, the trough is forecast move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances to near the Atlantic Seaboard, from the eastern Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will again be possible along or ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon, but any threat is expected to be marginal. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central states, where isolated convection will be possible. However, moisture return is expected to be confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, which will be a severe threat limiting factor. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, the trough is forecast to de-amplify and move into the northeastern U.S. as a broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern develops over much of the U.S. Moisture return is expected to take place over the western Gulf Coast on Saturday and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Some models suggest that a trough will take shape in the Great Plains on Sunday, with a cluster of storms forming ahead of the system Sunday afternoon. These storms would develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability from Oklahoma into Arkansas, expanding Sunday evening across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. If this scenario where to verify, then a severe threat would be possible with the stronger storms within the MCS. However, at this extended range, the magnitude and spatial extent of any severe threat remains considerably uncertain. Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PFN TO 20 NNE MAI TO 30 W ABY TO 45 ENE MCN TO 40 SSE AND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220 ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC013-037-039-045-065-073-077-079-123-129-160940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-007-017-019-023-027-033-037-069-071-073-075-081-087-091- 093-095-099-107-125-131-155-161-163-167-173-175-177-181-185-189- 201-205-209-235-245-253-271-273-275-277-279-283-287-303-309-315- 321-160940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN BLECKLEY BROOKS BURKE CALHOUN COFFEE COLQUITT COLUMBIA COOK Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PFN TO 20 NNE MAI TO 30 W ABY TO 45 ENE MCN TO 40 SSE AND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220 ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC013-037-039-045-065-073-077-079-123-129-160940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-007-017-019-023-027-033-037-069-071-073-075-081-087-091- 093-095-099-107-125-131-155-161-163-167-173-175-177-181-185-189- 201-205-209-235-245-253-271-273-275-277-279-283-287-303-309-315- 321-160940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN BLECKLEY BROOKS BURKE CALHOUN COFFEE COLQUITT COLUMBIA COOK Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more