Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PNS TO 30 NE CEW TO 45 S CSG TO 25 S ATL TO 45 NNE ATL. WW 49 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 160800Z. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-160800- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-059-063-131-133-160800- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC053-061-135-151-171-197-239-247-255-263-293-160800- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PNS TO 30 NE CEW TO 45 S CSG TO 25 S ATL TO 45 NNE ATL. WW 49 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 160800Z. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-160800- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-059-063-131-133-160800- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC053-061-135-151-171-197-239-247-255-263-293-160800- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PNS TO 30 NE CEW TO 45 S CSG TO 25 S ATL TO 45 NNE ATL. WW 49 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 160800Z. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-160800- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-059-063-131-133-160800- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC053-061-135-151-171-197-239-247-255-263-293-160800- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PNS TO 30 NE CEW TO 45 S CSG TO 25 S ATL TO 45 NNE ATL. WW 49 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 160800Z. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-160800- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-059-063-131-133-160800- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC053-061-135-151-171-197-239-247-255-263-293-160800- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PNS TO 30 NE CEW TO 45 S CSG TO 25 S ATL TO 45 NNE ATL. WW 49 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 160800Z. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-160800- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-059-063-131-133-160800- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC053-061-135-151-171-197-239-247-255-263-293-160800- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PNS TO 30 NE CEW TO 45 S CSG TO 25 S ATL TO 45 NNE ATL. WW 49 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 160800Z. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-160800- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-059-063-131-133-160800- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC053-061-135-151-171-197-239-247-255-263-293-160800- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 49 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 160045Z - 160800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 49 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 845 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern and Southern Alabama Western Florida Panhandle Western and Central Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 845 PM until 400 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will move northeast across the watch area through early Sunday morning. The primary risks will be tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Gadsden AL to 25 miles south southeast of Pensacola FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 46...WW 47...WW 48... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Bunting Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more