Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW PNS TO 25 SSW GZH TO 20 E GZH TO 20 WNW TOI TO 15 NE TOI TO 15 WSW AUO TO 20 NW AUO TO 20 SE ANB TO 25 E ANB TO 30 S RMG TO 20 NE RMG. ..JEWELL..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-017-031-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-081-087-109-111- 113-160640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS COFFEE COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE MACON PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL FLC005-033-059-063-091-113-131-133-160640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON Read more

MD 0217 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 49... FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0217 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0900 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...much of central Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 49... Valid 160200Z - 160400Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of strong tornadoes persists over watch area, especially over central Alabama. DISCUSSION...In the wake of tornadic storms which went across the BMX radar, a residual region of outflow remains across parts of Shelby, Talladega, Chilton and Coosa counties. Meanwhile, a very large complex of storms is coming up from the southwest. Very strong inflow winds exist ahead of this complex, which will continue to feed these storms and possibly enhance lift along the residual outflow from the earlier storms. Given over 400 m2/s2 0-1 SRH, it is possible that any interaction with the boundary could result in a strong tornado. The environment remains favorable extending farther south as well, where a north-south confluence line is noted ahead of the primary cold front, and including the Wilcox County cell. ..Jewell.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31078822 32848706 33028673 33238638 33438615 33598561 33278545 32118566 31038628 30938804 31078822 Read more