Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

MD 0226 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0226 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...south-central into eastern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161438Z - 161615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some damaging wind gusts are possible this morning to early afternoon across south-central and eastern Kentucky. DISCUSSION...A line of storms has developed along the cold front in central Kentucky. Ahead of these storms, dewpoints are in the mid 50s with abundant sunshine. MLCAPE is currently around 250 J/kg and may increase to around 500 J/kg by later this morning. The front is oriented parallel to the deep-layer flow across this region which is not overly favorable for a wind producing line of storms. However, strong lower tropospheric flow is present (vertically increasing to 60 knots by 3km per JKL VWP) and in the presence of thunderstorms and steepening low-level lapse rates, some of this stronger flow may mix to the surface. A watch is not anticipated. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK... LAT...LON 36788612 37368511 37808443 38098345 38198273 38038235 37598236 36878292 36608338 36628479 36648586 36718611 36788612 Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE AYS TO 25 ESE SAV TO 35 S OGB TO 35 SSE OGB AND 40 NE AYS TO 20 SSW SAV TO 30 SSE OGB TO 10 SSW FLO TO 30 NE FLO TO 30 WSW RDU. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...CHS...RAH...ILM...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-051-179-191-161640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CHATHAM LIBERTY MCINTOSH NCC001-017-019-037-047-051-063-065-069-077-083-085-093-101-105- 125-127-129-135-141-145-155-163-181-183-185-191-195-161640- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CHATHAM COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LEE MOORE NASH NEW HANOVER ORANGE PENDER PERSON ROBESON SAMPSON VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE VLD TO 15 SW AYS TO 30 SE VDI. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-053-067-075-083- 089-107-109-121-125-161640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO LAFAYETTE LEVY MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE UNION GAC025-039-049-065-101-127-229-299-305-161640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN PIERCE WARE WAYNE Read more