Severe Storms

WW 170 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 242155Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 170 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and South-Central Kansas Far Northern Oklahoma * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 455 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms will persist with additional development along the Kansas-Oklahoma border vicinity, as well as other parts of west-central Kansas through early evening. Additional storms may eventually move into the region from eastern Colorado, while MCS development could occur along the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of Garden City KS to 35 miles northeast of Medicine Lodge KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 166...WW 167...WW 168...WW 169... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 169 SEVERE TSTM CO 242140Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 169 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Additional strong/severe storm development is expected to occur through late afternoon, especially across east-central/southeast Colorado. This will include a combo of multicells and a few supercells with large hail expected to be the most probable severe hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Pueblo CO to 35 miles east of Lamar CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 166...WW 167...WW 168... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0166 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 166 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CLL TO UTS TO 20 W LFK TO 20 SSW GGG TO 20 ENE TYR. ..HALBERT..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 166 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-073-185-347-365-373-401-403-405-407-419-455-471-250040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA CHEROKEE GRIMES NACOGDOCHES PANOLA POLK RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 166 SEVERE TSTM TX 241955Z - 250100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 166 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into East Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A linear cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely continue east across much of the Watch area this afternoon into the early evening. Severe gusts 60-70 mph appear to be the primary hazard, but large hail may accompany the stronger cells on the southwestern flank of the thunderstorm band. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Temple TX to 25 miles east of Lufkin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Smith Read more

WW 0169 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 169 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 169 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-025-039-041-061-063-071-073-089-099-101-242340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0170 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 170 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 170 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-055-057-067-069-075-077-081-083-093-095- 097-101-119-129-135-145-151-155-159-165-171-175-185-187-189- 242340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HARPER HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KINGMAN KIOWA LANE MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH SCOTT SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS OKC003-059-151-242340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA HARPER WOODS Read more

MD 0544 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 0544 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Areas affected...eastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242045Z - 242245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Some instances of severe hail and gusty winds possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing near and south of the Denver metro this afternoon. Moisture in this region is limited, with dew points in the upper 40s to 50s. Nonetheless, ongoing convection will have potential to produce instances of mainly sub-severe hail given steep lapse rates and cooling aloft. As this development and any additional development shifts further south and east, it will enter a region with temperatures in the low to mid 70s and dew points in the low to mid-50s near the CO/KS border MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 30-35 kts is observed in surface objective analysis as of 20z. This environment may support some increase in coverage and intensity, with better potential for severe hail and wind. Trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance this evening. ..Thornton/Smith.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37030326 37460387 37930437 38590496 38880524 39470542 39900539 40100510 40270480 40410445 40480405 40480392 40030306 39660264 39290235 38850211 38370200 37610203 37200209 37040243 37020316 37030326 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0166 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 166 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE AUS TO 15 W CLL TO 30 NE CLL TO 20 NNW UTS TO 40 NW LFK TO 15 SE TYR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0547 ..HALBERT..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 166 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-041-051-073-185-225-287-347-365-373-401-403-405-407-419- 455-471-242340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE GRIMES HOUSTON LEE NACOGDOCHES PANOLA POLK RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0168 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 168 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-242340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC003-033-043-079-103-105-115-135-151-165-173-219-227-279-317- 329-335-371-383-415-443-445-461-475-495-501-242340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN BREWSTER COCHRAN CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GLASSCOCK HOCKLEY HOWARD LAMB MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL PECOS REAGAN SCURRY TERRELL TERRY UPTON WARD WINKLER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0168 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 168 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-242340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC003-033-043-079-103-105-115-135-151-165-173-219-227-279-317- 329-335-371-383-415-443-445-461-475-495-501-242340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN BREWSTER COCHRAN CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GLASSCOCK HOCKLEY HOWARD LAMB MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL PECOS REAGAN SCURRY TERRELL TERRY UPTON WARD WINKLER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 168 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 242100Z - 250300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 168 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop through the late afternoon and early evening. The stronger storms will likely become supercellular and pose mainly a threat for large to very large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north northwest of Big Spring TX to 25 miles west southwest of Dryden TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 166...WW 167... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0167 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 167 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 167 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-139-242340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TEXAS TXC011-045-065-075-087-101-107-125-129-153-169-179-189-191-195- 211-233-263-269-295-303-305-341-345-357-375-381-393-421-433-437- 483-242340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALE HALL HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON KENT KING LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN STONEWALL SWISHER WHEELER Read more

WW 0167 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 167 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 167 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-139-242340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TEXAS TXC011-045-065-075-087-101-107-125-129-153-169-179-189-191-195- 211-233-263-269-295-303-305-341-345-357-375-381-393-421-433-437- 483-242340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALE HALL HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON KENT KING LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN STONEWALL SWISHER WHEELER Read more

WW 167 TORNADO OK TX 242035Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle and South Plains * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to rapidly develop this afternoon into the early evening. Environmental shear and buoyancy combinations strongly favor intense, discrete supercells. Large to giant hail will be probable with any supercell. The tornado risk will likely focus for a few hours during the early evening near a residual outflow boundary draped over parts of the Watch area. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Guymon OK to 60 miles southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 166... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29015. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more