Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more