Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

WW 0203 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0203 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more