Severe Storms

WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0205 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0204 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 204 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-027-041-051-053-099-145-281-287-299-309-319-331-333-395- 411-453-491-012140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP BELL BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CORYELL FALLS LAMPASAS LEE LLANO MCLENNAN MASON MILAM MILLS ROBERTSON SAN SABA TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0204 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 204 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-027-041-051-053-099-145-281-287-299-309-319-331-333-395- 411-453-491-012140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP BELL BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CORYELL FALLS LAMPASAS LEE LLANO MCLENNAN MASON MILAM MILLS ROBERTSON SAN SABA TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0633 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0633 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011903Z - 012100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail will be possible with widely scattered supercells this afternoon. A watch is possible for parts of the Edwards Plateau into central Texas. Timing and where the greatest concentration of storms will be remains uncertain. Trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass has spread northward into much of central and eastern Texas. Cumulus towers have been increasing along an outflow boundary in central Texas and along a moisture gradient/pseudo dryline within the Edwards Plateau as temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s F. Mid-level ascent will be weak, but strong surface heating and minimal MLCIN should allow a few widely scattered supercells to develop. The most organized storms are more likely in central Texas where effective shear will be greater. Storm coverage will likely be higher near the outflow boundary as the moisture gradient is less convergent. Storms this afternoon will be capable of large to very-large hail and severe gusts. A watch is possible for portions of these regions. The uncertainty will be the timing and placement of possible watches. Trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30049901 29459947 29120022 29290072 29550091 29840078 30010058 31029904 31389834 31499815 31549796 31319746 31069672 30719638 30449662 30479704 30689754 30639829 30049901 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0203 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW LEX TO 35 SE LUK TO 30 SSE MFD TO 35 NE CLE. ..GRAMS..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX...ILN...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-017-019-043-049-063-065-067-069-079-089-113-129-135-151- 161-165-173-175-181-197-201-205-237-012140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOURBON BOYD CARTER CLARK ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING GARRARD GREENUP JESSAMINE LEE LEWIS MADISON MASON MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN NICHOLAS POWELL ROBERTSON ROWAN WOLFE OHC001-007-009-013-019-029-031-035-045-053-055-059-067-073-075- 079-081-083-085-087-089-099-103-105-111-115-119-121-127-129-131- 133-141-145-151-153-155-157-163-167-169-012140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHTABULA ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA Read more

WW 0203 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW LEX TO 35 SE LUK TO 30 SSE MFD TO 35 NE CLE. ..GRAMS..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX...ILN...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-017-019-043-049-063-065-067-069-079-089-113-129-135-151- 161-165-173-175-181-197-201-205-237-012140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOURBON BOYD CARTER CLARK ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING GARRARD GREENUP JESSAMINE LEE LEWIS MADISON MASON MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN NICHOLAS POWELL ROBERTSON ROWAN WOLFE OHC001-007-009-013-019-029-031-035-045-053-055-059-067-073-075- 079-081-083-085-087-089-099-103-105-111-115-119-121-127-129-131- 133-141-145-151-153-155-157-163-167-169-012140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHTABULA ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA Read more

WW 0203 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW LEX TO 35 SE LUK TO 30 SSE MFD TO 35 NE CLE. ..GRAMS..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX...ILN...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-017-019-043-049-063-065-067-069-079-089-113-129-135-151- 161-165-173-175-181-197-201-205-237-012140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOURBON BOYD CARTER CLARK ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING GARRARD GREENUP JESSAMINE LEE LEWIS MADISON MASON MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN NICHOLAS POWELL ROBERTSON ROWAN WOLFE OHC001-007-009-013-019-029-031-035-045-053-055-059-067-073-075- 079-081-083-085-087-089-099-103-105-111-115-119-121-127-129-131- 133-141-145-151-153-155-157-163-167-169-012140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHTABULA ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA Read more

WW 0203 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW LEX TO 35 SE LUK TO 30 SSE MFD TO 35 NE CLE. ..GRAMS..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX...ILN...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-017-019-043-049-063-065-067-069-079-089-113-129-135-151- 161-165-173-175-181-197-201-205-237-012140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOURBON BOYD CARTER CLARK ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING GARRARD GREENUP JESSAMINE LEE LEWIS MADISON MASON MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN NICHOLAS POWELL ROBERTSON ROWAN WOLFE OHC001-007-009-013-019-029-031-035-045-053-055-059-067-073-075- 079-081-083-085-087-089-099-103-105-111-115-119-121-127-129-131- 133-141-145-151-153-155-157-163-167-169-012140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHTABULA ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA Read more

WW 0203 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW LEX TO 35 SE LUK TO 30 SSE MFD TO 35 NE CLE. ..GRAMS..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX...ILN...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-017-019-043-049-063-065-067-069-079-089-113-129-135-151- 161-165-173-175-181-197-201-205-237-012140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOURBON BOYD CARTER CLARK ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING GARRARD GREENUP JESSAMINE LEE LEWIS MADISON MASON MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN NICHOLAS POWELL ROBERTSON ROWAN WOLFE OHC001-007-009-013-019-029-031-035-045-053-055-059-067-073-075- 079-081-083-085-087-089-099-103-105-111-115-119-121-127-129-131- 133-141-145-151-153-155-157-163-167-169-012140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHTABULA ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA Read more

WW 0203 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW LEX TO 35 SE LUK TO 30 SSE MFD TO 35 NE CLE. ..GRAMS..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX...ILN...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-017-019-043-049-063-065-067-069-079-089-113-129-135-151- 161-165-173-175-181-197-201-205-237-012140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOURBON BOYD CARTER CLARK ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING GARRARD GREENUP JESSAMINE LEE LEWIS MADISON MASON MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN NICHOLAS POWELL ROBERTSON ROWAN WOLFE OHC001-007-009-013-019-029-031-035-045-053-055-059-067-073-075- 079-081-083-085-087-089-099-103-105-111-115-119-121-127-129-131- 133-141-145-151-153-155-157-163-167-169-012140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHTABULA ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA Read more

WW 203 SEVERE TSTM KY OH PA WV LE 011720Z - 012300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Kentucky Central and Eastern Ohio Northwest Pennsylvania Northern Panhandle of West Virginia Lake Erie * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over western Ohio will track eastward today into a warm and unstable air mass. The strongest storms along and ahead of the line will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south of Lexington KY to 30 miles north northeast of Cleveland OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0632 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN OH...NORTHEAST KY...WESTERN/NORTHERN WV...WESTERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0632 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...central/eastern OH...northeast KY...western/northern WV...western PA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203... Valid 011843Z - 012015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203 continues. SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts capable of producing isolated damaging winds should be the primary hazard through the rest of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Broken cells/clusters have increased in latitudinal extent along a north-northeast to south-southwest confluence axis from western Lake Erie through central KY. Measured gusts of 35-45 kts have sporadically been measured, mainly across the OH portion of the band. This will likely persist and may still increase slightly over the next couple hours during the late afternoon. Area VWP data still indicates that the bulk of southwesterly speed shear is through the lowest 3 km, yielding pronounced weakness in the hodograph above that. This suggests that organizational potential may be limited, and recent WoFS guidance supports this scenario. More isolated convection has also formed over the higher terrain in the central Appalachian vicinity. This activity may struggle to expand east-northeast with a pronounced decrease in boundary-layer moisture across central PA and north/east from there. ..Grams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 41308239 41608208 42058121 42118070 42188009 41237937 40497916 39777898 39387918 39037967 38888114 38748169 37958292 37588399 37598446 37988457 38808377 39818292 41308239 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z An approaching mid-level trough interacting with an elevated moisture plume draped along the Southwest from southern California to New Mexico is expected to bring another round of afternoon convection, concentrated in the higher terrain northwestern Arizona into western New Mexico. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected where boundary layer moisture remains limited and fuels remain receptive (90th percentile or higher ERC values), primarily across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were added to communicate this fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude midlevel trough will move eastward across northern Mexico and the Southwest. As large-scale ascent accompanying this feature overspreads a midlevel moisture plume across the Southwest, widely scattered dry thunderstorms will develop along the higher terrain. However, the overlap of these high-based thunderstorms and dry/receptive fuels appears too limited for Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z An approaching mid-level trough interacting with an elevated moisture plume draped along the Southwest from southern California to New Mexico is expected to bring another round of afternoon convection, concentrated in the higher terrain northwestern Arizona into western New Mexico. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected where boundary layer moisture remains limited and fuels remain receptive (90th percentile or higher ERC values), primarily across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were added to communicate this fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude midlevel trough will move eastward across northern Mexico and the Southwest. As large-scale ascent accompanying this feature overspreads a midlevel moisture plume across the Southwest, widely scattered dry thunderstorms will develop along the higher terrain. However, the overlap of these high-based thunderstorms and dry/receptive fuels appears too limited for Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z An approaching mid-level trough interacting with an elevated moisture plume draped along the Southwest from southern California to New Mexico is expected to bring another round of afternoon convection, concentrated in the higher terrain northwestern Arizona into western New Mexico. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected where boundary layer moisture remains limited and fuels remain receptive (90th percentile or higher ERC values), primarily across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were added to communicate this fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude midlevel trough will move eastward across northern Mexico and the Southwest. As large-scale ascent accompanying this feature overspreads a midlevel moisture plume across the Southwest, widely scattered dry thunderstorms will develop along the higher terrain. However, the overlap of these high-based thunderstorms and dry/receptive fuels appears too limited for Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z An approaching mid-level trough interacting with an elevated moisture plume draped along the Southwest from southern California to New Mexico is expected to bring another round of afternoon convection, concentrated in the higher terrain northwestern Arizona into western New Mexico. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected where boundary layer moisture remains limited and fuels remain receptive (90th percentile or higher ERC values), primarily across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were added to communicate this fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude midlevel trough will move eastward across northern Mexico and the Southwest. As large-scale ascent accompanying this feature overspreads a midlevel moisture plume across the Southwest, widely scattered dry thunderstorms will develop along the higher terrain. However, the overlap of these high-based thunderstorms and dry/receptive fuels appears too limited for Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z An approaching mid-level trough interacting with an elevated moisture plume draped along the Southwest from southern California to New Mexico is expected to bring another round of afternoon convection, concentrated in the higher terrain northwestern Arizona into western New Mexico. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected where boundary layer moisture remains limited and fuels remain receptive (90th percentile or higher ERC values), primarily across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were added to communicate this fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude midlevel trough will move eastward across northern Mexico and the Southwest. As large-scale ascent accompanying this feature overspreads a midlevel moisture plume across the Southwest, widely scattered dry thunderstorms will develop along the higher terrain. However, the overlap of these high-based thunderstorms and dry/receptive fuels appears too limited for Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z An approaching mid-level trough interacting with an elevated moisture plume draped along the Southwest from southern California to New Mexico is expected to bring another round of afternoon convection, concentrated in the higher terrain northwestern Arizona into western New Mexico. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected where boundary layer moisture remains limited and fuels remain receptive (90th percentile or higher ERC values), primarily across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were added to communicate this fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude midlevel trough will move eastward across northern Mexico and the Southwest. As large-scale ascent accompanying this feature overspreads a midlevel moisture plume across the Southwest, widely scattered dry thunderstorms will develop along the higher terrain. However, the overlap of these high-based thunderstorms and dry/receptive fuels appears too limited for Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z An approaching mid-level trough interacting with an elevated moisture plume draped along the Southwest from southern California to New Mexico is expected to bring another round of afternoon convection, concentrated in the higher terrain northwestern Arizona into western New Mexico. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected where boundary layer moisture remains limited and fuels remain receptive (90th percentile or higher ERC values), primarily across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were added to communicate this fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude midlevel trough will move eastward across northern Mexico and the Southwest. As large-scale ascent accompanying this feature overspreads a midlevel moisture plume across the Southwest, widely scattered dry thunderstorms will develop along the higher terrain. However, the overlap of these high-based thunderstorms and dry/receptive fuels appears too limited for Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z An approaching mid-level trough interacting with an elevated moisture plume draped along the Southwest from southern California to New Mexico is expected to bring another round of afternoon convection, concentrated in the higher terrain northwestern Arizona into western New Mexico. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected where boundary layer moisture remains limited and fuels remain receptive (90th percentile or higher ERC values), primarily across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were added to communicate this fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude midlevel trough will move eastward across northern Mexico and the Southwest. As large-scale ascent accompanying this feature overspreads a midlevel moisture plume across the Southwest, widely scattered dry thunderstorms will develop along the higher terrain. However, the overlap of these high-based thunderstorms and dry/receptive fuels appears too limited for Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more