Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.... AMENDED FOR INCREASED TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL TX. ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through tonight. Localized tornado risk has recently materialized across parts of central TX in proximity to a differential heating zone and a weakly confluent dryline. Several supercells ongoing within extreme buoyancy (4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) may pose a risk for an additional tornado in proximity to the boundary given slightly enhanced low-level shear, very moist conditions and very strong vertical stretching. ...20z... The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today. Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and the SLGT has been removed. Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells, are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds and very large hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central OK and the Red River valley. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.... AMENDED FOR INCREASED TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL TX. ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through tonight. Localized tornado risk has recently materialized across parts of central TX in proximity to a differential heating zone and a weakly confluent dryline. Several supercells ongoing within extreme buoyancy (4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) may pose a risk for an additional tornado in proximity to the boundary given slightly enhanced low-level shear, very moist conditions and very strong vertical stretching. ...20z... The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today. Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and the SLGT has been removed. Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells, are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds and very large hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central OK and the Red River valley. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more