Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more