SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC May 1, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE TX/OK PAHANDLES EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC May 1, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE TX/OK PAHANDLES EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC May 1, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE TX/OK PAHANDLES EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC May 1, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE TX/OK PAHANDLES EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC May 1, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE TX/OK PAHANDLES EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC May 1, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE TX/OK PAHANDLES EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/01/2025 Read more
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