Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MRB TO 20 ENE LBE TO 40 N UNV. ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-009-013-021-027-041-055-057-061-067-087-099-109-119- 020240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CENTRE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MRB TO 20 ENE LBE TO 40 N UNV. ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-009-013-021-027-041-055-057-061-067-087-099-109-119- 020240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CENTRE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MRB TO 20 ENE LBE TO 40 N UNV. ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-009-013-021-027-041-055-057-061-067-087-099-109-119- 020240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CENTRE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MRB TO 20 ENE LBE TO 40 N UNV. ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-009-013-021-027-041-055-057-061-067-087-099-109-119- 020240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CENTRE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MRB TO 20 ENE LBE TO 40 N UNV. ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-009-013-021-027-041-055-057-061-067-087-099-109-119- 020240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CENTRE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MRB TO 20 ENE LBE TO 40 N UNV. ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-009-013-021-027-041-055-057-061-067-087-099-109-119- 020240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CENTRE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more