Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

WW 0213 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 213 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649. ..GRAMS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 213 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-025-043-061-115-123-155-022040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD FLOYD HARRISON OHIO PERRY SWITZERLAND KYC005-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-029-037-041-045-049-051- 063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-085-091-093-095-097-103-109-111- 113-117-121-123-125-129-131-135-137-147-151-153-155-161-163-165- 167-173-175-179-181-183-185-187-189-191-193-197-199-201-203-205- 209-211-215-223-229-231-235-237-239-022040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BATH BELL BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BREATHITT BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK CLAY Read more

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LUK TO 40 SSE FDY TO 25 W CAK TO 35 NE CLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0652. ..GRAMS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC007-013-019-021-023-027-029-031-041-047-049-055-057-059-067- 075-081-083-085-089-097-099-101-111-117-119-121-133-151-153-155- 157-159-165-169-022040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLINTON COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN GEAUGA GREENE GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX LAKE LICKING MADISON MAHONING MARION MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS UNION WARREN WAYNE PAC007-019-031-039-049-053-073-085-121-022040- Read more

WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE GLH TO 20 N TUP TO 40 WSW HOP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649. ..GRAMS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-022040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE KYC001-003-009-031-047-053-057-061-087-099-141-169-171-177-207- 213-217-219-221-227-022040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CHRISTIAN CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GREEN HART LOGAN METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD TRIGG WARREN Read more

WW 0214 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0214 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0214 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0214 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more