Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more