Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more