Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

WW 0211 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0211 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-007-019-021-023-027-029-031-033-035-041-047-049-055-057- 065-075-077-083-085-089-091-093-097-099-101-103-109-113-117-133- 139-147-151-153-155-157-159-165-169-175-021840- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ASHTABULA CARROLL CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLINTON COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN GEAUGA GREENE HARDIN HOLMES HURON KNOX LAKE LICKING LOGAN LORAIN MADISON MAHONING MARION MEDINA MIAMI MONTGOMERY MORROW PORTAGE RICHLAND SENECA STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS UNION WARREN WAYNE WYANDOT PAC007-019-031-039-049-053-073-085-121-021840- PA Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more