Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The primary adjustment for this forecast update was an expansion of the Elevated risk area into parts of western TX and eastern AZ. Recent guidance shows relatively good agreement in widespread 15-25 mph winds across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Given antecedent dry conditions (17 UTC relative humidity values in the single digits to low teens with no appreciable moisture recovery anticipated), widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated. Expansion of the Critical risk area was considered for parts of west/southwest TX, but ERC values remain near to just below seasonal values. One and ten-hour fuel moisture values below 10% suggest that the fire threat will primarily be driven by dead dry grasses, but ongoing green up should also limit fire spread potential to some degree, especially with east and northward extent. Consequently, only elevated highlights appear warranted. Similarly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected along the Mogollon Rim in eastern AZ where ERCs are generally near seasonal levels, but some fire activity within the past week suggests that at least elevated highlights are needed. ..Moore.. 05/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by a 60-kt southwesterly speed maximum, will advance northeastward from northern MX across southern NM during the afternoon. In response, a weak lee cyclone/trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico... Along the northern periphery of mid/high-level clouds extending from north-central MX into West TX, mostly clear skies and dry/downslope trajectories will support deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across southern NM. Additionally, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These strong/gusty winds, combined with single-digit RH and middle 80s F temperatures, will yield critical fire-weather conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The primary adjustment for this forecast update was an expansion of the Elevated risk area into parts of western TX and eastern AZ. Recent guidance shows relatively good agreement in widespread 15-25 mph winds across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Given antecedent dry conditions (17 UTC relative humidity values in the single digits to low teens with no appreciable moisture recovery anticipated), widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated. Expansion of the Critical risk area was considered for parts of west/southwest TX, but ERC values remain near to just below seasonal values. One and ten-hour fuel moisture values below 10% suggest that the fire threat will primarily be driven by dead dry grasses, but ongoing green up should also limit fire spread potential to some degree, especially with east and northward extent. Consequently, only elevated highlights appear warranted. Similarly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected along the Mogollon Rim in eastern AZ where ERCs are generally near seasonal levels, but some fire activity within the past week suggests that at least elevated highlights are needed. ..Moore.. 05/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by a 60-kt southwesterly speed maximum, will advance northeastward from northern MX across southern NM during the afternoon. In response, a weak lee cyclone/trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico... Along the northern periphery of mid/high-level clouds extending from north-central MX into West TX, mostly clear skies and dry/downslope trajectories will support deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across southern NM. Additionally, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These strong/gusty winds, combined with single-digit RH and middle 80s F temperatures, will yield critical fire-weather conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The primary adjustment for this forecast update was an expansion of the Elevated risk area into parts of western TX and eastern AZ. Recent guidance shows relatively good agreement in widespread 15-25 mph winds across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Given antecedent dry conditions (17 UTC relative humidity values in the single digits to low teens with no appreciable moisture recovery anticipated), widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated. Expansion of the Critical risk area was considered for parts of west/southwest TX, but ERC values remain near to just below seasonal values. One and ten-hour fuel moisture values below 10% suggest that the fire threat will primarily be driven by dead dry grasses, but ongoing green up should also limit fire spread potential to some degree, especially with east and northward extent. Consequently, only elevated highlights appear warranted. Similarly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected along the Mogollon Rim in eastern AZ where ERCs are generally near seasonal levels, but some fire activity within the past week suggests that at least elevated highlights are needed. ..Moore.. 05/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by a 60-kt southwesterly speed maximum, will advance northeastward from northern MX across southern NM during the afternoon. In response, a weak lee cyclone/trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico... Along the northern periphery of mid/high-level clouds extending from north-central MX into West TX, mostly clear skies and dry/downslope trajectories will support deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across southern NM. Additionally, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These strong/gusty winds, combined with single-digit RH and middle 80s F temperatures, will yield critical fire-weather conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The primary adjustment for this forecast update was an expansion of the Elevated risk area into parts of western TX and eastern AZ. Recent guidance shows relatively good agreement in widespread 15-25 mph winds across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Given antecedent dry conditions (17 UTC relative humidity values in the single digits to low teens with no appreciable moisture recovery anticipated), widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated. Expansion of the Critical risk area was considered for parts of west/southwest TX, but ERC values remain near to just below seasonal values. One and ten-hour fuel moisture values below 10% suggest that the fire threat will primarily be driven by dead dry grasses, but ongoing green up should also limit fire spread potential to some degree, especially with east and northward extent. Consequently, only elevated highlights appear warranted. Similarly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected along the Mogollon Rim in eastern AZ where ERCs are generally near seasonal levels, but some fire activity within the past week suggests that at least elevated highlights are needed. ..Moore.. 05/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by a 60-kt southwesterly speed maximum, will advance northeastward from northern MX across southern NM during the afternoon. In response, a weak lee cyclone/trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico... Along the northern periphery of mid/high-level clouds extending from north-central MX into West TX, mostly clear skies and dry/downslope trajectories will support deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across southern NM. Additionally, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These strong/gusty winds, combined with single-digit RH and middle 80s F temperatures, will yield critical fire-weather conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161716
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Avoca was under a boil order, and residents were urged to restrict their water use as drought has left regional water wells low. A local grocery store was expecting another shipment of water soon in an effort to keep up with residents’ demand for bottled water. The boil water order was expected to last about ten days until water can be pumped to Avoca from Council Bluffs. KMTV 3 News Now (Omaha, Neb.), May 15, 2025

MD 0796 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0796 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254... Valid 152242Z - 160015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254 continues. SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will propagate toward coastal North Carolina this evening. Some risk for wind and hail continue. DISCUSSION...Northwesterly deep-layer flow is firmly established across the Middle Atlantic early this evening. Modest boundary-layer heating has contributed to substantial air mass destabilization and 3000 J/kg SBCAPE has yet to be overturned across much of eastern North Carolina. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed from east of RWI to the Outer Banks region, and mean northwesterly flow should encourage this activity to continue propagating toward coastal regions. Latest radar data suggests the primary corridor of organized convection will continue along this axis into the mid-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 36217723 35747461 34917523 35727761 36217723 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0795 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 253... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0795 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0536 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 253... Valid 152236Z - 160000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253 continues. SUMMARY...Arcing band of supercells will continue to pose a risk of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...An arcing band of semi-discrete supercells continues tracking northeastward across parts of central/eastern WI this evening -- generally focused along an occluded surface front. Around 40-50 kt of effective shear oriented off the boundary should maintain the semi-discrete mode, especially in the near-term. Ahead of these storms, backed surface winds in the sheltered boundary layer beneath a warm-advection plume is yielding upwards of 400 m2/s2 0-1km SRH (per MKX VWP). Given middle 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (and surface-based inflow layers), this enhanced low-level streamwise vorticity will continue to support a supercell tornado threat for the next couple hours -- before storms move too far east into more stable low-level air. The most concerning area appears to be at the southern end of the line in south-central WI, where SRH and surface-based inflow is maximized amid a more discrete supercell mode. Large hail and damaging winds will also remain possible with this activity. ..Weinman.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 43018873 43968955 44619031 45019061 45289039 45418983 45198920 45028886 44508832 43878794 43398782 43058794 42838829 43018873 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 15 22:24:07 UTC 2025.

WW 0255 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0255 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 255 TORNADO IL IN LM 152215Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 255 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and Central Illinois Far Northwest Indiana Lake Michigan * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 515 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will pose a threat for large to very large hail this evening as they move east-northeastward. The largest hailstones may reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter. A few tornadoes are also possible, and a strong tornado may occur. Otherwise, scattered severe/damaging winds should also be a threat, especially if thunderstorms can congeal into clusters later this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Marseilles IL to 35 miles west southwest of Champaign IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 251...WW 252...WW 253...WW 254... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 0794 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0794 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152022Z - 152215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible with supercells that can develop later this afternoon. Watch timing is uncertain but is possible later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Cumulus are developing along an eastward moving dryline near the Mississippi River. Ahead of this boundary, a strongly unstable airmass is in place (low 90s F temperatures and mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints). With the strongest mid-level ascent to the northwest of the region, timing of storm initiation as well as storm coverage are uncertain. However, given the lack of MLCIN, a isolated to widely scattered development appears possible later this afternoon. 45-55 kts of effective shear will support supercells. The primary hazards will be large to very large hail and severe winds. The tornado threat is expected to be less than farther north given the slightly veered low-level winds and more sizable temperature/dewpoint spreads at the surface. ..Wendt/Mosier.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 39418987 41039031 41568999 41998852 42058826 41548812 40218818 39388856 39158871 39048891 39418987 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S. on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday while an upper-low translates eastward into the northeastern U.S. A preceding short wave and enhanced mid-level flow will eject into the Southwest on Day 3/Saturday signaling the start of a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of Arizona/New Mexico. A jet max on the southern periphery of the larger scale trough will support stronger winds across Arizona/New Mexico this weekend amid dry fuels and low relative humidity. Broad ridging is expected to setup across the western U.S. Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday. This will bring generally subdued fire weather conditions but rising temperatures which will aid in curing/drying of fuels, particularly across the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southwest... An upper-level short wave arriving Day 3/Saturday into southern Arizona/New Mexico is still expected to bring Critical fire weather conditions to southern New Mexico where fuels continue to dry. Stronger southwest winds arrive Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday as a jet max rounds the base of the trough, which will coincide with a very dry, well mixed boundary layer supporting single digit relative humidity values. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to mainly far southern New Mexico with model guidance consensus yielding higher forecast confidence. Conditions improve Day 6/Tuesday and especially by midweek as ridging begins to take hold ushering in lighter winds but continued dry conditions. ...Sacramento Valley... Dry, post-frontal north winds funneling through the Sacramento valley combined with recently cured fine fuels at lower elevations could promote an increased fire spread potential for Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of winds so left Critical probabilities out for now. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S. on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday while an upper-low translates eastward into the northeastern U.S. A preceding short wave and enhanced mid-level flow will eject into the Southwest on Day 3/Saturday signaling the start of a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of Arizona/New Mexico. A jet max on the southern periphery of the larger scale trough will support stronger winds across Arizona/New Mexico this weekend amid dry fuels and low relative humidity. Broad ridging is expected to setup across the western U.S. Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday. This will bring generally subdued fire weather conditions but rising temperatures which will aid in curing/drying of fuels, particularly across the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southwest... An upper-level short wave arriving Day 3/Saturday into southern Arizona/New Mexico is still expected to bring Critical fire weather conditions to southern New Mexico where fuels continue to dry. Stronger southwest winds arrive Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday as a jet max rounds the base of the trough, which will coincide with a very dry, well mixed boundary layer supporting single digit relative humidity values. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to mainly far southern New Mexico with model guidance consensus yielding higher forecast confidence. Conditions improve Day 6/Tuesday and especially by midweek as ridging begins to take hold ushering in lighter winds but continued dry conditions. ...Sacramento Valley... Dry, post-frontal north winds funneling through the Sacramento valley combined with recently cured fine fuels at lower elevations could promote an increased fire spread potential for Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of winds so left Critical probabilities out for now. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S. on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday while an upper-low translates eastward into the northeastern U.S. A preceding short wave and enhanced mid-level flow will eject into the Southwest on Day 3/Saturday signaling the start of a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of Arizona/New Mexico. A jet max on the southern periphery of the larger scale trough will support stronger winds across Arizona/New Mexico this weekend amid dry fuels and low relative humidity. Broad ridging is expected to setup across the western U.S. Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday. This will bring generally subdued fire weather conditions but rising temperatures which will aid in curing/drying of fuels, particularly across the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southwest... An upper-level short wave arriving Day 3/Saturday into southern Arizona/New Mexico is still expected to bring Critical fire weather conditions to southern New Mexico where fuels continue to dry. Stronger southwest winds arrive Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday as a jet max rounds the base of the trough, which will coincide with a very dry, well mixed boundary layer supporting single digit relative humidity values. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to mainly far southern New Mexico with model guidance consensus yielding higher forecast confidence. Conditions improve Day 6/Tuesday and especially by midweek as ridging begins to take hold ushering in lighter winds but continued dry conditions. ...Sacramento Valley... Dry, post-frontal north winds funneling through the Sacramento valley combined with recently cured fine fuels at lower elevations could promote an increased fire spread potential for Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of winds so left Critical probabilities out for now. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S. on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday while an upper-low translates eastward into the northeastern U.S. A preceding short wave and enhanced mid-level flow will eject into the Southwest on Day 3/Saturday signaling the start of a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of Arizona/New Mexico. A jet max on the southern periphery of the larger scale trough will support stronger winds across Arizona/New Mexico this weekend amid dry fuels and low relative humidity. Broad ridging is expected to setup across the western U.S. Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday. This will bring generally subdued fire weather conditions but rising temperatures which will aid in curing/drying of fuels, particularly across the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southwest... An upper-level short wave arriving Day 3/Saturday into southern Arizona/New Mexico is still expected to bring Critical fire weather conditions to southern New Mexico where fuels continue to dry. Stronger southwest winds arrive Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday as a jet max rounds the base of the trough, which will coincide with a very dry, well mixed boundary layer supporting single digit relative humidity values. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to mainly far southern New Mexico with model guidance consensus yielding higher forecast confidence. Conditions improve Day 6/Tuesday and especially by midweek as ridging begins to take hold ushering in lighter winds but continued dry conditions. ...Sacramento Valley... Dry, post-frontal north winds funneling through the Sacramento valley combined with recently cured fine fuels at lower elevations could promote an increased fire spread potential for Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of winds so left Critical probabilities out for now. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S. on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday while an upper-low translates eastward into the northeastern U.S. A preceding short wave and enhanced mid-level flow will eject into the Southwest on Day 3/Saturday signaling the start of a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of Arizona/New Mexico. A jet max on the southern periphery of the larger scale trough will support stronger winds across Arizona/New Mexico this weekend amid dry fuels and low relative humidity. Broad ridging is expected to setup across the western U.S. Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday. This will bring generally subdued fire weather conditions but rising temperatures which will aid in curing/drying of fuels, particularly across the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southwest... An upper-level short wave arriving Day 3/Saturday into southern Arizona/New Mexico is still expected to bring Critical fire weather conditions to southern New Mexico where fuels continue to dry. Stronger southwest winds arrive Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday as a jet max rounds the base of the trough, which will coincide with a very dry, well mixed boundary layer supporting single digit relative humidity values. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to mainly far southern New Mexico with model guidance consensus yielding higher forecast confidence. Conditions improve Day 6/Tuesday and especially by midweek as ridging begins to take hold ushering in lighter winds but continued dry conditions. ...Sacramento Valley... Dry, post-frontal north winds funneling through the Sacramento valley combined with recently cured fine fuels at lower elevations could promote an increased fire spread potential for Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of winds so left Critical probabilities out for now. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S. on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday while an upper-low translates eastward into the northeastern U.S. A preceding short wave and enhanced mid-level flow will eject into the Southwest on Day 3/Saturday signaling the start of a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of Arizona/New Mexico. A jet max on the southern periphery of the larger scale trough will support stronger winds across Arizona/New Mexico this weekend amid dry fuels and low relative humidity. Broad ridging is expected to setup across the western U.S. Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday. This will bring generally subdued fire weather conditions but rising temperatures which will aid in curing/drying of fuels, particularly across the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southwest... An upper-level short wave arriving Day 3/Saturday into southern Arizona/New Mexico is still expected to bring Critical fire weather conditions to southern New Mexico where fuels continue to dry. Stronger southwest winds arrive Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday as a jet max rounds the base of the trough, which will coincide with a very dry, well mixed boundary layer supporting single digit relative humidity values. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to mainly far southern New Mexico with model guidance consensus yielding higher forecast confidence. Conditions improve Day 6/Tuesday and especially by midweek as ridging begins to take hold ushering in lighter winds but continued dry conditions. ...Sacramento Valley... Dry, post-frontal north winds funneling through the Sacramento valley combined with recently cured fine fuels at lower elevations could promote an increased fire spread potential for Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of winds so left Critical probabilities out for now. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Auburn Board of Public Works has drilled 174 test holes in search of groundwater but has not found any good sites. Auburn, like its neighbor, Peru, remained in a stage 3 water emergency. News Channel Nebraska (Grand Island, Neb.), May 15, 2025

MD 0793 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0793 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of central Arkansas into western Tennessee...far southeast Missouri...far southwestern Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252... Valid 152007Z - 152130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing storms may still reach severe limits, with damaging gusts and large hail the main concerns. These storms may persist downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252, so a local extension of the ongoing watch, or the issuance of a new downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch, may be needed. DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms (still possibly elevated) continue across AR amid a pronounced EML atop rich low-level moisture and strong deep-layer shear. As such, any storm cores that can intensify will continue to pose at least a severe hail threat. Severe gusts are also possible if ongoing storms can become surface based by either rooting into the boundary layer, or establishing a strong cold pool, which could lift surface-based parcels to the LFC along the cold pool leading edge. It remains uncertain if these storms have peaked in intensity or if greater severe potential exists downstream. As such, an eastward extension of the ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch, or the issuance of a new watch, may be needed pending favorable convective trends. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 34939340 36199176 36989020 37528788 37338714 36848734 36298804 35678882 35288982 35009097 34939340 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more