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MD 0792 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 251... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0792 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...Portions of northwest Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 251... Valid 152000Z - 152130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 251 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado potential, including a strong tornado, will shift into portions of northwest Wisconsin over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells continues north and east. These storms will move across the River and into northwest Wisconsin shortly. Temperatures have risen into low 80s F with dewpoints remaining near 64 F. Given the storm mode, low-level thermodynamics, and backed surface winds, this area will be the primary focus for tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours. Storms have remained in close proximity to one another, but still sufficiently discrete that overall inflow quality remains favorable for low-level mesocyclone intensification. With objective mesoanalysis showing STP of 2-3, a strong tornado remains possible. ..Wendt.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44379245 44999324 45259323 45449277 45489242 45349185 45219156 44959147 44539175 44279217 44379245 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0254 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 254 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/15/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 254 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-013-015-029-033-041-053-055-063-065-067-069-073-077-079- 081-083-091-095-101-117-127-131-135-139-143-145-147-157-169-177- 181-183-185-187-191-195-152240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CASWELL CHOWAN CURRITUCK DARE DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT ROCKINGHAM STOKES TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC003-005-007-009-011-015-017-019-023-025-029-031-033-037-041- 045-047-049-053-063-065-067-071-075-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 109-111-113-117-121-125-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-157-161- 163-165-171-175-177-183-530-540-570-580-590-595-620-660-670-678- Read more

WW 0254 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 254 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/15/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 254 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-013-015-029-033-041-053-055-063-065-067-069-073-077-079- 081-083-091-095-101-117-127-131-135-139-143-145-147-157-169-177- 181-183-185-187-191-195-152240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CASWELL CHOWAN CURRITUCK DARE DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT ROCKINGHAM STOKES TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC003-005-007-009-011-015-017-019-023-025-029-031-033-037-041- 045-047-049-053-063-065-067-071-075-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 109-111-113-117-121-125-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-157-161- 163-165-171-175-177-183-530-540-570-580-590-595-620-660-670-678- Read more

WW 254 SEVERE TSTM NC VA WV CW 152105Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 254 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-Central/Northeast North Carolina Central and Eastern Virginia Far Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the next few hours. Environmental conditions across the region favor a cellular mode, including the potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north of Lynchburg VA to 40 miles south southwest of Roanoke Rapids NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 251...WW 252...WW 253... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-085-111-177-201-152240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE JO DAVIESS MCHENRY STEPHENSON WINNEBAGO WIC001-009-015-021-023-025-027-029-039-043-045-047-049-055-057- 059-061-065-067-069-071-073-077-078-079-083-087-089-097-101-103- 105-111-115-117-123-127-131-133-135-137-139-141-152240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE DODGE DOOR FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA JEFFERSON JUNEAU KENOSHA KEWAUNEE LAFAYETTE LANGLADE LINCOLN MANITOWOC MARATHON MARQUETTE MENOMINEE MILWAUKEE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE OZAUKEE PORTAGE RACINE Read more

WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-085-111-177-201-152240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE JO DAVIESS MCHENRY STEPHENSON WINNEBAGO WIC001-009-015-021-023-025-027-029-039-043-045-047-049-055-057- 059-061-065-067-069-071-073-077-078-079-083-087-089-097-101-103- 105-111-115-117-123-127-131-133-135-137-139-141-152240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE DODGE DOOR FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA JEFFERSON JUNEAU KENOSHA KEWAUNEE LAFAYETTE LANGLADE LINCOLN MANITOWOC MARATHON MARQUETTE MENOMINEE MILWAUKEE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE OZAUKEE PORTAGE RACINE Read more

WW 253 TORNADO IL WI 152005Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Northern Illinois Central/Eastern/Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a warm front and move into the region over the next several hours. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large to very large hail and tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of Wausau WI to 20 miles south southwest of Janesville WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 251...WW 252... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21030. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0252 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 252 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LIT TO 25 W ARG TO 35 SSW FAM. ..THORNTON..05/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 252 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-037-055-063-067-075-093-111-121-145-147-152240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CROSS GREENE INDEPENDENCE JACKSON LAWRENCE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT RANDOLPH WHITE WOODRUFF KYC039-075-105-152240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARLISLE FULTON HICKMAN MOC023-069-133-143-155-181-207-223-152240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI Read more

WW 0252 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 252 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LIT TO 25 W ARG TO 35 SSW FAM. ..THORNTON..05/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 252 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-037-055-063-067-075-093-111-121-145-147-152240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CROSS GREENE INDEPENDENCE JACKSON LAWRENCE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT RANDOLPH WHITE WOODRUFF KYC039-075-105-152240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARLISLE FULTON HICKMAN MOC023-069-133-143-155-181-207-223-152240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI Read more

WW 252 SEVERE TSTM AR KY MO TN 151855Z - 160000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-Central into Northeast Arkansas Far Western Kentucky Far Southeast Missouri Far Northwest Tennessee * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Line of storms moving through north-central Arkansas continues to organize as it moves quickly eastward. The downstream airmass is warm and buoyant, suggesting the potential for this cluster to continue over the next few hours. Strong gusts and large to very large hail are possible with this cluster, as well any other storms that develop across the region. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east northeast of Poplar Bluff MO to 55 miles east southeast of Russellville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 251... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0251 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 251 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE LSE TO 30 N LSE TO 25 WSW EAU TO 20 ESE STC TO 25 NNW STC TO 15 E DTL. ..THORNTON..05/15/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 251 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-003-009-021-025-035-059-065-095-097-115-153-159-152240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON CASS CHISAGO CROW WING ISANTI KANABEC MILLE LACS MORRISON PINE TODD WADENA WIC003-005-007-013-017-019-031-033-035-051-053-081-095-099-107- 109-113-119-129-152240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD BURNETT CHIPPEWA CLARK DOUGLAS DUNN EAU CLAIRE IRON JACKSON MONROE POLK PRICE RUSK ST. CROIX SAWYER TAYLOR WASHBURN Read more

WW 0251 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 251 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE LSE TO 30 N LSE TO 25 WSW EAU TO 20 ESE STC TO 25 NNW STC TO 15 E DTL. ..THORNTON..05/15/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 251 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-003-009-021-025-035-059-065-095-097-115-153-159-152240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON CASS CHISAGO CROW WING ISANTI KANABEC MILLE LACS MORRISON PINE TODD WADENA WIC003-005-007-013-017-019-031-033-035-051-053-081-095-099-107- 109-113-119-129-152240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD BURNETT CHIPPEWA CLARK DOUGLAS DUNN EAU CLAIRE IRON JACKSON MONROE POLK PRICE RUSK ST. CROIX SAWYER TAYLOR WASHBURN Read more

WW 251 TORNADO MN WI 151745Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Minnesota West-Central Wisconsin * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Rapid thunderstorm development is anticipated within a narrow warm sector moving into the region. Strong buoyancy and robust deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail from 2" to 3" in diameter, strong gusts, and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south southwest of Alexandria MN to 55 miles east of Eau Claire WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 20035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0791 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0791 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151914Z - 152115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed this afternoon. Supercells capable of all severe hazards are expected within the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Cumulus continue to deepen both along a dryline and an area of confluence within the Mississippi Valley. Whether storms develop within the confluence or when the dryline reaches the Mississippi River remains a question. 40-50 kts of effective shear across these surface convergence zones will favor supercells as storms develop. Large to very large hail will be a concern as well as severe wind gusts. The 18Z DVN sounding sampled very steep mid-level lapse rates and a long hodograph. Tornado potential will also be present. Surface temperature/dewpoint spreads are near 20 F, but low-level shear and a supercellular mode will favor low-level rotation. The time frame of greater tornado potential will likely be 22-00Z when the low-level jet increases in southern Wisconsin. ..Wendt/Mosier.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 41418999 41579025 41819042 42309082 42909119 43299134 43549126 44009048 44358993 44438931 43978880 43168862 42128827 41798867 41418999 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0251 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 251 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE RST TO 15 E MSP TO 20 SSE STC TO 30 W STC TO 25 NNW AXN TO 20 S FAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792 ..WENDT..05/15/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 251 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-003-009-021-025-035-059-065-095-097-111-115-141-145-153- 157-159-163-169-152140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON CASS CHISAGO CROW WING ISANTI KANABEC MILLE LACS MORRISON OTTER TAIL PINE SHERBURNE STEARNS TODD WABASHA WADENA WASHINGTON WINONA WIC005-011-013-017-019-033-035-053-063-081-091-093-095-099-107- 109-113-119-121-129-152140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRON BUFFALO BURNETT CHIPPEWA CLARK DUNN Read more

WW 0252 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 252 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RUE TO 30 NE RUE TO 35 ENE UNO. ..THORNTON..05/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 252 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-023-029-031-037-045-049-055-063-065-067-075-093-105-111- 115-121-135-137-141-145-147-152140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CROSS FAULKNER FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE MISSISSIPPI PERRY POINSETT POPE RANDOLPH SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF KYC039-075-105-152140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARLISLE FULTON HICKMAN MOC023-035-069-133-143-149-155-181-207-223-152140- Read more

MD 0790 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0790 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and northeast North Carolina into far southeast Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151857Z - 152030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat may be increasing across portions of central and northeast NC into far southeast VA. If storms can mature and sustain themselves, severe wind/hail may occur. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. DISCUSSION...An agitated CU field is evident across portions of central NC, where a heated/mixed boundary layer beneath the eastward extent of an EML supports over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong west-northwesterly mid-level flow is also beginning to overspread the region, contributing to over 35 kts of effective bulk shear, which should only increase further into the afternoon. Kinematic and thermodynamic fields in place support multicells and supercells should storms mature and become sustained, with severe hail/wind being the main concerns. Questions remain how robust and widespread convective coverage will become. As such, convective trends are being monitored for greater storm coverage and the subsequent need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 35477604 35247656 35177711 35217754 35517841 35797908 35987923 36247888 36607796 36907730 36767636 36167587 35477604 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0253 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0788 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0788 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern West Virginia and much of Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151823Z - 152000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase over the next few hours. Multicells and supercells will be the primary storm mode, with severe wind and hail the main threats. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows agitated cumulus along the WV/VA border, driven primarily by boundary layer destabilization, along with orographic lift associated with the Appalachians. Surface temperatures have already warmed into the mid to upper 70s F to the immediate lee of the Appalachians, where upper 60s F dewpoints, beneath the eastward extent of an EML plume, supports 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. The 17Z RNK observed sounding shows 8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and the freezing level around 600 mb, beneath where most of the CAPE resides, along with modestly elongated hodographs. Such conditions support supercells capable of severe gusts and large hail, including a few instances of 2+ inch in diameter stones. Given a gradually increasing severe threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX... LAT...LON 36608017 36768076 37298113 37938092 38388044 38797971 38967837 38617777 37937732 37257730 36797770 36637848 36608017 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more