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WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0253 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0788 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0788 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern West Virginia and much of Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151823Z - 152000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase over the next few hours. Multicells and supercells will be the primary storm mode, with severe wind and hail the main threats. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows agitated cumulus along the WV/VA border, driven primarily by boundary layer destabilization, along with orographic lift associated with the Appalachians. Surface temperatures have already warmed into the mid to upper 70s F to the immediate lee of the Appalachians, where upper 60s F dewpoints, beneath the eastward extent of an EML plume, supports 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. The 17Z RNK observed sounding shows 8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and the freezing level around 600 mb, beneath where most of the CAPE resides, along with modestly elongated hodographs. Such conditions support supercells capable of severe gusts and large hail, including a few instances of 2+ inch in diameter stones. Given a gradually increasing severe threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX... LAT...LON 36608017 36768076 37298113 37938092 38388044 38797971 38967837 38617777 37937732 37257730 36797770 36637848 36608017 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential for Friday. ..Williams.. 05/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest. However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely. This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise, increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more