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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase into this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. Supercells are ongoing across Missouri producing large hail (up to 3-4 in). These storms will continue eastward through time across the Moderate Risk. The area ahead of these storms is continuing to warm and destabilize rapidly, with some increase in low level shear expected through the evening with an increase in the low level jet. This will support increasing potential for tornadoes, a couple of which may be intense and long-track across eastern Missouri into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and western Kentucky. See MCD#817 for more information on the short term risk. Elsewhere, a cluster of storms continue across portions of the eastern US from West Virginia to eastern Kentucky which will slowly move into Virginia and North Carolina. See MCD#816 for more information on the short term risk. For more information on the potential risk across southeast Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon/evening, see previous discussion below. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 05/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through tonight... An occluded 984 mb cyclone will move slowly eastward toward the upper Great Lakes and fill through tonight, as a trailing cold front progresses across MO/IL/IN/MI. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters will likely persist through the afternoon along the primary moisture/buoyancy gradient into the northern Mid-Atlantic, and with a developing cold pool from TN/KY into VA/NC within the warm sector. MLCAPE increasing to 2000 J/kg or greater, steepening low-level lapse rates, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt) will maintain a mix of embedded supercells and bowing segments capable of producing very large hail (2 inch diameter or larger), thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes. Farther west and in the wake of the ongoing TN/KY storms, rapid recovery is underway across southern MO where moisture advection and strong surface heating will result in rapid destabilization. Visible imagery shows evidence of ascent over northwest AR/southwest MO that will soon interact with the destabilizing warm sector. Supercell development is expected by midday into early afternoon from south central into east central MO, and storms will subsequently expand in coverage while spreading quickly east-northeastward across southern/central IL this afternoon and into IN late this afternoon/evening. The initial storms in MO will likely remain semi-discrete with the potential to producing very large hail (in excess of 3 inches in diameter) and a couple of strong tornadoes given very long hodograph with sufficient low-level shear. Gradual upscale growth into clusters/line segments is expected through storm interactions, with an increase in the potential for swaths of 65-85 mph gusts into this evening. More isolated supercell development may also occur later this afternoon along the modifying outflow boundary into KY, where all hazards are expected. ...Northern IL into Lower MI this afternoon/evening... An embedded speed max and associated zone of ascent now over northern MO will eject quickly east-northeastward toward Lower MI by early tonight. The degree of moistening/destabilization will be modulated by how quickly storms form and how widespread coverage is this afternoon farther to the south from IL into IN. ...AR into southeast OK and northeast/central TX this afternoon... Despite some cloud cover, surface heating in cloud breaks is allowing surface temperatures to warm into the 80s with low-mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints, beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along the primary wind shift from AR/southeast OK into northeast and potentially central TX. MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and long hodographs with strong deep-layer shear will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (3-4 inches in diameter) with the initial discrete storms, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. The tornado threat is less certain given relatively weak low-level shear (as a result of the primary mass response/low-level jet into the TN/OH Valleys), and will likely rely on favorable storm interactions. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase into this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. Supercells are ongoing across Missouri producing large hail (up to 3-4 in). These storms will continue eastward through time across the Moderate Risk. The area ahead of these storms is continuing to warm and destabilize rapidly, with some increase in low level shear expected through the evening with an increase in the low level jet. This will support increasing potential for tornadoes, a couple of which may be intense and long-track across eastern Missouri into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and western Kentucky. See MCD#817 for more information on the short term risk. Elsewhere, a cluster of storms continue across portions of the eastern US from West Virginia to eastern Kentucky which will slowly move into Virginia and North Carolina. See MCD#816 for more information on the short term risk. For more information on the potential risk across southeast Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon/evening, see previous discussion below. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 05/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through tonight... An occluded 984 mb cyclone will move slowly eastward toward the upper Great Lakes and fill through tonight, as a trailing cold front progresses across MO/IL/IN/MI. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters will likely persist through the afternoon along the primary moisture/buoyancy gradient into the northern Mid-Atlantic, and with a developing cold pool from TN/KY into VA/NC within the warm sector. MLCAPE increasing to 2000 J/kg or greater, steepening low-level lapse rates, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt) will maintain a mix of embedded supercells and bowing segments capable of producing very large hail (2 inch diameter or larger), thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes. Farther west and in the wake of the ongoing TN/KY storms, rapid recovery is underway across southern MO where moisture advection and strong surface heating will result in rapid destabilization. Visible imagery shows evidence of ascent over northwest AR/southwest MO that will soon interact with the destabilizing warm sector. Supercell development is expected by midday into early afternoon from south central into east central MO, and storms will subsequently expand in coverage while spreading quickly east-northeastward across southern/central IL this afternoon and into IN late this afternoon/evening. The initial storms in MO will likely remain semi-discrete with the potential to producing very large hail (in excess of 3 inches in diameter) and a couple of strong tornadoes given very long hodograph with sufficient low-level shear. Gradual upscale growth into clusters/line segments is expected through storm interactions, with an increase in the potential for swaths of 65-85 mph gusts into this evening. More isolated supercell development may also occur later this afternoon along the modifying outflow boundary into KY, where all hazards are expected. ...Northern IL into Lower MI this afternoon/evening... An embedded speed max and associated zone of ascent now over northern MO will eject quickly east-northeastward toward Lower MI by early tonight. The degree of moistening/destabilization will be modulated by how quickly storms form and how widespread coverage is this afternoon farther to the south from IL into IN. ...AR into southeast OK and northeast/central TX this afternoon... Despite some cloud cover, surface heating in cloud breaks is allowing surface temperatures to warm into the 80s with low-mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints, beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along the primary wind shift from AR/southeast OK into northeast and potentially central TX. MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and long hodographs with strong deep-layer shear will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (3-4 inches in diameter) with the initial discrete storms, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. The tornado threat is less certain given relatively weak low-level shear (as a result of the primary mass response/low-level jet into the TN/OH Valleys), and will likely rely on favorable storm interactions. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase into this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. Supercells are ongoing across Missouri producing large hail (up to 3-4 in). These storms will continue eastward through time across the Moderate Risk. The area ahead of these storms is continuing to warm and destabilize rapidly, with some increase in low level shear expected through the evening with an increase in the low level jet. This will support increasing potential for tornadoes, a couple of which may be intense and long-track across eastern Missouri into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and western Kentucky. See MCD#817 for more information on the short term risk. Elsewhere, a cluster of storms continue across portions of the eastern US from West Virginia to eastern Kentucky which will slowly move into Virginia and North Carolina. See MCD#816 for more information on the short term risk. For more information on the potential risk across southeast Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon/evening, see previous discussion below. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 05/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through tonight... An occluded 984 mb cyclone will move slowly eastward toward the upper Great Lakes and fill through tonight, as a trailing cold front progresses across MO/IL/IN/MI. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters will likely persist through the afternoon along the primary moisture/buoyancy gradient into the northern Mid-Atlantic, and with a developing cold pool from TN/KY into VA/NC within the warm sector. MLCAPE increasing to 2000 J/kg or greater, steepening low-level lapse rates, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt) will maintain a mix of embedded supercells and bowing segments capable of producing very large hail (2 inch diameter or larger), thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes. Farther west and in the wake of the ongoing TN/KY storms, rapid recovery is underway across southern MO where moisture advection and strong surface heating will result in rapid destabilization. Visible imagery shows evidence of ascent over northwest AR/southwest MO that will soon interact with the destabilizing warm sector. Supercell development is expected by midday into early afternoon from south central into east central MO, and storms will subsequently expand in coverage while spreading quickly east-northeastward across southern/central IL this afternoon and into IN late this afternoon/evening. The initial storms in MO will likely remain semi-discrete with the potential to producing very large hail (in excess of 3 inches in diameter) and a couple of strong tornadoes given very long hodograph with sufficient low-level shear. Gradual upscale growth into clusters/line segments is expected through storm interactions, with an increase in the potential for swaths of 65-85 mph gusts into this evening. More isolated supercell development may also occur later this afternoon along the modifying outflow boundary into KY, where all hazards are expected. ...Northern IL into Lower MI this afternoon/evening... An embedded speed max and associated zone of ascent now over northern MO will eject quickly east-northeastward toward Lower MI by early tonight. The degree of moistening/destabilization will be modulated by how quickly storms form and how widespread coverage is this afternoon farther to the south from IL into IN. ...AR into southeast OK and northeast/central TX this afternoon... Despite some cloud cover, surface heating in cloud breaks is allowing surface temperatures to warm into the 80s with low-mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints, beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along the primary wind shift from AR/southeast OK into northeast and potentially central TX. MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and long hodographs with strong deep-layer shear will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (3-4 inches in diameter) with the initial discrete storms, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. The tornado threat is less certain given relatively weak low-level shear (as a result of the primary mass response/low-level jet into the TN/OH Valleys), and will likely rely on favorable storm interactions. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period. Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization. Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime. Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this activity. During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail, or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO. ...Deep South to GA/SC Coast... Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but any storms that develop could become strong/severe. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period. Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization. Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime. Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this activity. During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail, or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO. ...Deep South to GA/SC Coast... Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but any storms that develop could become strong/severe. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period. Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization. Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime. Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this activity. During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail, or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO. ...Deep South to GA/SC Coast... Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but any storms that develop could become strong/severe. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period. Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization. Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime. Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this activity. During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail, or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO. ...Deep South to GA/SC Coast... Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but any storms that develop could become strong/severe. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period. Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization. Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime. Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this activity. During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail, or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO. ...Deep South to GA/SC Coast... Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but any storms that develop could become strong/severe. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period. Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization. Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime. Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this activity. During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail, or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO. ...Deep South to GA/SC Coast... Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but any storms that develop could become strong/severe. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period. Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization. Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime. Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this activity. During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail, or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO. ...Deep South to GA/SC Coast... Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but any storms that develop could become strong/severe. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period. Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization. Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime. Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this activity. During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail, or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO. ...Deep South to GA/SC Coast... Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but any storms that develop could become strong/severe. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period. Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization. Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime. Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this activity. During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail, or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO. ...Deep South to GA/SC Coast... Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but any storms that develop could become strong/severe. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period. Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization. Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime. Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this activity. During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail, or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO. ...Deep South to GA/SC Coast... Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but any storms that develop could become strong/severe. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period. Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization. Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime. Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this activity. During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail, or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO. ...Deep South to GA/SC Coast... Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but any storms that develop could become strong/severe. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period. Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization. Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime. Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this activity. During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail, or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO. ...Deep South to GA/SC Coast... Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but any storms that develop could become strong/severe. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

WW 0260 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 260 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ILG TO 15 WSW ACY TO 20 E ACY. ..GRAMS..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 260 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-161940- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-029-035-041-161940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-009-011-161940- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND Read more

WW 0260 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 260 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ILG TO 15 WSW ACY TO 20 E ACY. ..GRAMS..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 260 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-161940- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-029-035-041-161940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-009-011-161940- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The primary adjustment for this forecast update was an expansion of the Elevated risk area into parts of western TX and eastern AZ. Recent guidance shows relatively good agreement in widespread 15-25 mph winds across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Given antecedent dry conditions (17 UTC relative humidity values in the single digits to low teens with no appreciable moisture recovery anticipated), widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated. Expansion of the Critical risk area was considered for parts of west/southwest TX, but ERC values remain near to just below seasonal values. One and ten-hour fuel moisture values below 10% suggest that the fire threat will primarily be driven by dead dry grasses, but ongoing green up should also limit fire spread potential to some degree, especially with east and northward extent. Consequently, only elevated highlights appear warranted. Similarly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected along the Mogollon Rim in eastern AZ where ERCs are generally near seasonal levels, but some fire activity within the past week suggests that at least elevated highlights are needed. ..Moore.. 05/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by a 60-kt southwesterly speed maximum, will advance northeastward from northern MX across southern NM during the afternoon. In response, a weak lee cyclone/trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico... Along the northern periphery of mid/high-level clouds extending from north-central MX into West TX, mostly clear skies and dry/downslope trajectories will support deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across southern NM. Additionally, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These strong/gusty winds, combined with single-digit RH and middle 80s F temperatures, will yield critical fire-weather conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The primary adjustment for this forecast update was an expansion of the Elevated risk area into parts of western TX and eastern AZ. Recent guidance shows relatively good agreement in widespread 15-25 mph winds across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Given antecedent dry conditions (17 UTC relative humidity values in the single digits to low teens with no appreciable moisture recovery anticipated), widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated. Expansion of the Critical risk area was considered for parts of west/southwest TX, but ERC values remain near to just below seasonal values. One and ten-hour fuel moisture values below 10% suggest that the fire threat will primarily be driven by dead dry grasses, but ongoing green up should also limit fire spread potential to some degree, especially with east and northward extent. Consequently, only elevated highlights appear warranted. Similarly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected along the Mogollon Rim in eastern AZ where ERCs are generally near seasonal levels, but some fire activity within the past week suggests that at least elevated highlights are needed. ..Moore.. 05/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by a 60-kt southwesterly speed maximum, will advance northeastward from northern MX across southern NM during the afternoon. In response, a weak lee cyclone/trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico... Along the northern periphery of mid/high-level clouds extending from north-central MX into West TX, mostly clear skies and dry/downslope trajectories will support deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across southern NM. Additionally, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These strong/gusty winds, combined with single-digit RH and middle 80s F temperatures, will yield critical fire-weather conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The primary adjustment for this forecast update was an expansion of the Elevated risk area into parts of western TX and eastern AZ. Recent guidance shows relatively good agreement in widespread 15-25 mph winds across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Given antecedent dry conditions (17 UTC relative humidity values in the single digits to low teens with no appreciable moisture recovery anticipated), widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated. Expansion of the Critical risk area was considered for parts of west/southwest TX, but ERC values remain near to just below seasonal values. One and ten-hour fuel moisture values below 10% suggest that the fire threat will primarily be driven by dead dry grasses, but ongoing green up should also limit fire spread potential to some degree, especially with east and northward extent. Consequently, only elevated highlights appear warranted. Similarly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected along the Mogollon Rim in eastern AZ where ERCs are generally near seasonal levels, but some fire activity within the past week suggests that at least elevated highlights are needed. ..Moore.. 05/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by a 60-kt southwesterly speed maximum, will advance northeastward from northern MX across southern NM during the afternoon. In response, a weak lee cyclone/trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico... Along the northern periphery of mid/high-level clouds extending from north-central MX into West TX, mostly clear skies and dry/downslope trajectories will support deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across southern NM. Additionally, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These strong/gusty winds, combined with single-digit RH and middle 80s F temperatures, will yield critical fire-weather conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more