Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

WW 0268 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0268 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0268 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0268 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 268 SEVERE TSTM IL IN OH 162245Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 268 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Illinois Northern Indiana Far Northwest Ohio * Effective this Friday night from 645 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms should pose a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds through the evening. Peak gusts may reach up to 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Fort Wayne IN to 85 miles west southwest of Fort Wayne IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 262...WW 263...WW 264...WW 265...WW 266...WW 267... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0266 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 266 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 266 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-162340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC011-029-035-041-162340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-021-029-033-162340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER MERCER OCEAN SALEM Read more

WW 0263 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 263 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE NHK TO 10 WSW CXY TO 15 ESE UNV. ..THORNTON..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 263 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC003-005-015-025-510-162340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CECIL HARFORD MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY PAC043-071-075-099-133-162340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAUPHIN LANCASTER LEBANON PERRY YORK ANZ530-531-532-538-539-540-541-543-162340- Read more

WW 0263 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 263 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE NHK TO 10 WSW CXY TO 15 ESE UNV. ..THORNTON..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 263 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC003-005-015-025-510-162340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CECIL HARFORD MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY PAC043-071-075-099-133-162340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAUPHIN LANCASTER LEBANON PERRY YORK ANZ530-531-532-538-539-540-541-543-162340- Read more

WW 263 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 161820Z - 170200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Western and Central Maryland Southwest and South-Central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Far Northern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region this afternoon. Environmental conditions support strong to severe storms capable of damaging gust and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Wheeling WV to 10 miles east southeast of Baltimore MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 260...WW 261...WW 262... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0264 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 264 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW RDU TO 5 SE AVC TO 20 ENE AVC TO 25 SE RIC TO 30 N ORF TO 30 SE NHK. ..THORNTON..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...MHX...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 264 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC019-039-045-047-162340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DORCHESTER SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NCC013-015-029-041-053-055-065-069-073-083-091-095-117-127-131- 139-143-147-177-181-185-187-162340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK DARE EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL VANCE WARREN WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0265 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DEC TO 20 WSW MTO TO 20 ESE CMI TO 5 NNE DNV. ..THORNTON..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-023-025-029-033-035-045-047-049-055-059-065-069-079-081- 087-101-127-151-153-159-165-181-185-191-193-199-162340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE MASSAC POPE PULASKI RICHLAND SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC005-011-013-015-019-021-023-025-027-031-035-037-043-045-051- 055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-101- 105-107-109-117-119-121-123-125-129-133-135-139-143-145-147-153- 157-159-163-165-167-171-173-175-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0262 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 262 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW RKR TO 20 NNW RUE TO 20 N FLP TO 15 ENE UNO TO 35 SW FAM TO 15 S BLV TO 35 SSW DEC. ..THORNTON..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...PAH...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 262 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-023-029-049-063-065-067-075-083-089-115-121-127-129-135- 137-141-149-162340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLEBURNE CONWAY FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LOGAN MARION POPE RANDOLPH SCOTT SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN YELL ILC005-027-051-077-121-145-157-189-162340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CLINTON FAYETTE JACKSON MARION PERRY RANDOLPH WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0262 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 262 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW RKR TO 20 NNW RUE TO 20 N FLP TO 15 ENE UNO TO 35 SW FAM TO 15 S BLV TO 35 SSW DEC. ..THORNTON..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...PAH...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 262 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-023-029-049-063-065-067-075-083-089-115-121-127-129-135- 137-141-149-162340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLEBURNE CONWAY FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LOGAN MARION POPE RANDOLPH SCOTT SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN YELL ILC005-027-051-077-121-145-157-189-162340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CLINTON FAYETTE JACKSON MARION PERRY RANDOLPH WASHINGTON Read more

WW 262 TORNADO AR IL MO OK 161655Z - 170000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southwestern Illinois Central and Eastern Missouri Far Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1155 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...The airmass across the region continues to destabilize amid strong low-level moisture advection and daytime heating. Robust thunderstorm development is anticipated over the next few hours as an approaching cold front interacts with this strong buoyant airmass. Strong vertical shear is also in place, supporting supercells as the primary storm mode. All severe hazards are possible with these supercells, including very large hail up to 4" in diameter and strong tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles south of Harrison AR to 35 miles north northwest of Saint Louis MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 260...WW 261... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0267 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0267 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0261 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 261 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW HKY TO 25 SW BLF TO 15 SE PSK. ..GRAMS..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...GSP...RNK...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-005-009-027-171-189-193-197-162140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE CALDWELL SURRY WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN VAC035-063-077-141-173-197-640-162140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL FLOYD GRAYSON PATRICK SMYTH WYTHE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE GALAX Read more

WW 0261 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 261 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW HKY TO 25 SW BLF TO 15 SE PSK. ..GRAMS..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...GSP...RNK...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-005-009-027-171-189-193-197-162140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE CALDWELL SURRY WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN VAC035-063-077-141-173-197-640-162140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL FLOYD GRAYSON PATRICK SMYTH WYTHE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE GALAX Read more

WW 0261 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 261 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW HKY TO 25 SW BLF TO 15 SE PSK. ..GRAMS..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...GSP...RNK...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-005-009-027-171-189-193-197-162140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE CALDWELL SURRY WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN VAC035-063-077-141-173-197-640-162140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL FLOYD GRAYSON PATRICK SMYTH WYTHE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE GALAX Read more

WW 0261 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 261 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW HKY TO 25 SW BLF TO 15 SE PSK. ..GRAMS..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...GSP...RNK...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-005-009-027-171-189-193-197-162140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE CALDWELL SURRY WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN VAC035-063-077-141-173-197-640-162140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL FLOYD GRAYSON PATRICK SMYTH WYTHE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE GALAX Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger over the weekend and into early next week across parts of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to depict the amplification of an upper trough over the Southwest this weekend before ejecting into the Plains early next week. As this occurs, dry southwesterly flow should overspread much of the Southwest/southern High Plains, which will promote multiple days of fire weather concerns. After the ejection of this wave, ensemble guidance suggests low-amplitude long-wave ridging will become established over the central CONUS. This should promote muted surface pressure gradient winds along with isolated rain chances for most regions with the exception of the Great Basin and Southwest. ...D3/Sunday and D4/Monday - Southern High Plains... Southwesterly flow over the southern/central Rockies will promote lee troughing along the southern High Plains through early next week. To the west of a sharpening dryline, west/southwesterly downslope flow will promote multiple days of dry/windy conditions with afternoon RH values expected to fall into the single digits to low teens with 15-25 mph winds. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected both afternoons as mid-level impulses propagate into the Plains and result in an eastward surge of the dryline. The fire weather threat should be greatest across south-central NM into far West TX where ERCs are currently between the 80th to 95th percentile. With northward and eastward extent, ongoing spring green up should modulate the potential for fire spread. ...D3/Sunday and D4/Monday - Sacramento Valley... Dry northerly winds are expected through the Sacramento Valley both D3/Sun and D4/Mon. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH values falling into the 20-30% range. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, and some fire threat may materialize given ERCs increasing to near the 80th percentile. However, confidence in sustained/widespread critical conditions remains too limited for highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger over the weekend and into early next week across parts of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to depict the amplification of an upper trough over the Southwest this weekend before ejecting into the Plains early next week. As this occurs, dry southwesterly flow should overspread much of the Southwest/southern High Plains, which will promote multiple days of fire weather concerns. After the ejection of this wave, ensemble guidance suggests low-amplitude long-wave ridging will become established over the central CONUS. This should promote muted surface pressure gradient winds along with isolated rain chances for most regions with the exception of the Great Basin and Southwest. ...D3/Sunday and D4/Monday - Southern High Plains... Southwesterly flow over the southern/central Rockies will promote lee troughing along the southern High Plains through early next week. To the west of a sharpening dryline, west/southwesterly downslope flow will promote multiple days of dry/windy conditions with afternoon RH values expected to fall into the single digits to low teens with 15-25 mph winds. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected both afternoons as mid-level impulses propagate into the Plains and result in an eastward surge of the dryline. The fire weather threat should be greatest across south-central NM into far West TX where ERCs are currently between the 80th to 95th percentile. With northward and eastward extent, ongoing spring green up should modulate the potential for fire spread. ...D3/Sunday and D4/Monday - Sacramento Valley... Dry northerly winds are expected through the Sacramento Valley both D3/Sun and D4/Mon. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH values falling into the 20-30% range. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, and some fire threat may materialize given ERCs increasing to near the 80th percentile. However, confidence in sustained/widespread critical conditions remains too limited for highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more