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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

WW 0264 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 264 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HSE TO 35 NNE ORF. WW 264 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 170300Z. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...MHX...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 264 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AMZ231-170300- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more