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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

WW 0330 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 330 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE LFT TO 20 NNW MCB TO 55 SSW GWO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0989 ..SMITH..05/26/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 330 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC033-037-063-077-091-103-105-117-121-125-262000- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-023-029-031-035-039-041-045-047-049-059-061-065-067-069- 073-075-077-079-085-089-091-099-101-109-111-113-121-123-127-129- 131-147-153-262000- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON HINDS JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER Read more

WW 0330 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 330 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0989 ..SMITH..05/26/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 330 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC033-037-063-077-091-103-105-117-121-125-261940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-021-023-029-031-035-037-039-041-045-047-049-059-061-063- 065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085-089-091-099-101-109-111-113-121- 123-127-129-131-147-149-153-157-163-261940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON HINDS JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN MADISON Read more

MD 0988 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST-CENTRAL LA...SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0988 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Areas affected...east-central LA...southwest into southern MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261557Z - 261800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A limited threat for strong/locally damaging gusts seemingly exists in the near term through midday. The risk for damaging gusts may increase this afternoon in the vicinity of prior outflow/differential heating boundary, but the prospect for damaging gusts remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a squall line extending from far southeast AR south-southwestward into west-central LA. Surface analysis places a remnant outflow boundary/differential heating zone draped from east to west over the southern tier of counties in southern MS westward into east-central LA. South of the boundary temperatures are warming into the mid 80s deg F with mid 70s dewpoints, and rain-cooled temperatures are in the lower 70s north of the boundary in northeast LA and adjacent portions of western MS. An MCV associated with the linear MCS will continue eastward through the lower MS Valley this afternoon. Some filtered heating through a thin cirrus canopy ahead of the line will act to slowly destabilize the boundary layer near and south of I-20. Given a gradual increase in instability through the early to mid afternoon, expecting a slow strengthening in storm intensity along the gust front. A few of the stronger storms may pose an isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph). There remains some uncertainty on the spatial extent and magnitude of the potential strong/severe risk during the afternoon. Will monitor convective trends for the possibility of a small and targeted severe thunderstorm watch across portions of southern MS. ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 32259226 32489187 32268965 31978924 31368923 30928973 31009263 31169280 32259226 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The greatest threat of large hail and wind damage will be over parts of southwest and south-central Texas. A locally greater threat for wind damage could also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley. ...TX to GA... A blocking pattern will persist across the CONUS, with ridging from the northern High Plains into the Prairie provinces, and a downstream closed low over the upper MS Valley. Broad cyclonic flow will likewise persist from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians, atop a mean baroclinic zone from TX to the Carolina coastal plain. Outflow from an ongoing storm cluster across the Ark-La-Miss and additional storms later D1 (today) in TX will likely modulate the effective frontal zone tomorrow. The more probable corridor for severe-storm development Tuesday will be along the effective front from southwest into south central TX, though the usual forecast biases are a concern with convective outflow progressing farther southwest than explicitly forecast by model guidance. Where the boundary is established by afternoon, the richest moisture/warm temperatures beneath the elevated mixed layer will result in large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg). The boundary will also be coincident with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for supercells with very large hail, while any tornado threat will likely need to be focused with the stronger low-level shear along the modifying front/outflow with early storm development. Upscale growth into a larger cluster/MCS appears likely through the evening as convection spreads southeastward with an attendant threat for damaging winds/large hail. Farther east, the layered influences of ongoing and upcoming (D1) convection will largely drive the severe threat tomorrow across the Southeast. There will be some potential for a remnant MCV from convection tonight to move along the residual front/outflow tomorrow, potentially from MS to GA. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any convective clusters. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The greatest threat of large hail and wind damage will be over parts of southwest and south-central Texas. A locally greater threat for wind damage could also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley. ...TX to GA... A blocking pattern will persist across the CONUS, with ridging from the northern High Plains into the Prairie provinces, and a downstream closed low over the upper MS Valley. Broad cyclonic flow will likewise persist from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians, atop a mean baroclinic zone from TX to the Carolina coastal plain. Outflow from an ongoing storm cluster across the Ark-La-Miss and additional storms later D1 (today) in TX will likely modulate the effective frontal zone tomorrow. The more probable corridor for severe-storm development Tuesday will be along the effective front from southwest into south central TX, though the usual forecast biases are a concern with convective outflow progressing farther southwest than explicitly forecast by model guidance. Where the boundary is established by afternoon, the richest moisture/warm temperatures beneath the elevated mixed layer will result in large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg). The boundary will also be coincident with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for supercells with very large hail, while any tornado threat will likely need to be focused with the stronger low-level shear along the modifying front/outflow with early storm development. Upscale growth into a larger cluster/MCS appears likely through the evening as convection spreads southeastward with an attendant threat for damaging winds/large hail. Farther east, the layered influences of ongoing and upcoming (D1) convection will largely drive the severe threat tomorrow across the Southeast. There will be some potential for a remnant MCV from convection tonight to move along the residual front/outflow tomorrow, potentially from MS to GA. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any convective clusters. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The greatest threat of large hail and wind damage will be over parts of southwest and south-central Texas. A locally greater threat for wind damage could also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley. ...TX to GA... A blocking pattern will persist across the CONUS, with ridging from the northern High Plains into the Prairie provinces, and a downstream closed low over the upper MS Valley. Broad cyclonic flow will likewise persist from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians, atop a mean baroclinic zone from TX to the Carolina coastal plain. Outflow from an ongoing storm cluster across the Ark-La-Miss and additional storms later D1 (today) in TX will likely modulate the effective frontal zone tomorrow. The more probable corridor for severe-storm development Tuesday will be along the effective front from southwest into south central TX, though the usual forecast biases are a concern with convective outflow progressing farther southwest than explicitly forecast by model guidance. Where the boundary is established by afternoon, the richest moisture/warm temperatures beneath the elevated mixed layer will result in large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg). The boundary will also be coincident with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for supercells with very large hail, while any tornado threat will likely need to be focused with the stronger low-level shear along the modifying front/outflow with early storm development. Upscale growth into a larger cluster/MCS appears likely through the evening as convection spreads southeastward with an attendant threat for damaging winds/large hail. Farther east, the layered influences of ongoing and upcoming (D1) convection will largely drive the severe threat tomorrow across the Southeast. There will be some potential for a remnant MCV from convection tonight to move along the residual front/outflow tomorrow, potentially from MS to GA. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any convective clusters. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The greatest threat of large hail and wind damage will be over parts of southwest and south-central Texas. A locally greater threat for wind damage could also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley. ...TX to GA... A blocking pattern will persist across the CONUS, with ridging from the northern High Plains into the Prairie provinces, and a downstream closed low over the upper MS Valley. Broad cyclonic flow will likewise persist from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians, atop a mean baroclinic zone from TX to the Carolina coastal plain. Outflow from an ongoing storm cluster across the Ark-La-Miss and additional storms later D1 (today) in TX will likely modulate the effective frontal zone tomorrow. The more probable corridor for severe-storm development Tuesday will be along the effective front from southwest into south central TX, though the usual forecast biases are a concern with convective outflow progressing farther southwest than explicitly forecast by model guidance. Where the boundary is established by afternoon, the richest moisture/warm temperatures beneath the elevated mixed layer will result in large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg). The boundary will also be coincident with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for supercells with very large hail, while any tornado threat will likely need to be focused with the stronger low-level shear along the modifying front/outflow with early storm development. Upscale growth into a larger cluster/MCS appears likely through the evening as convection spreads southeastward with an attendant threat for damaging winds/large hail. Farther east, the layered influences of ongoing and upcoming (D1) convection will largely drive the severe threat tomorrow across the Southeast. There will be some potential for a remnant MCV from convection tonight to move along the residual front/outflow tomorrow, potentially from MS to GA. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any convective clusters. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The greatest threat of large hail and wind damage will be over parts of southwest and south-central Texas. A locally greater threat for wind damage could also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley. ...TX to GA... A blocking pattern will persist across the CONUS, with ridging from the northern High Plains into the Prairie provinces, and a downstream closed low over the upper MS Valley. Broad cyclonic flow will likewise persist from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians, atop a mean baroclinic zone from TX to the Carolina coastal plain. Outflow from an ongoing storm cluster across the Ark-La-Miss and additional storms later D1 (today) in TX will likely modulate the effective frontal zone tomorrow. The more probable corridor for severe-storm development Tuesday will be along the effective front from southwest into south central TX, though the usual forecast biases are a concern with convective outflow progressing farther southwest than explicitly forecast by model guidance. Where the boundary is established by afternoon, the richest moisture/warm temperatures beneath the elevated mixed layer will result in large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg). The boundary will also be coincident with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for supercells with very large hail, while any tornado threat will likely need to be focused with the stronger low-level shear along the modifying front/outflow with early storm development. Upscale growth into a larger cluster/MCS appears likely through the evening as convection spreads southeastward with an attendant threat for damaging winds/large hail. Farther east, the layered influences of ongoing and upcoming (D1) convection will largely drive the severe threat tomorrow across the Southeast. There will be some potential for a remnant MCV from convection tonight to move along the residual front/outflow tomorrow, potentially from MS to GA. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any convective clusters. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The greatest threat of large hail and wind damage will be over parts of southwest and south-central Texas. A locally greater threat for wind damage could also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley. ...TX to GA... A blocking pattern will persist across the CONUS, with ridging from the northern High Plains into the Prairie provinces, and a downstream closed low over the upper MS Valley. Broad cyclonic flow will likewise persist from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians, atop a mean baroclinic zone from TX to the Carolina coastal plain. Outflow from an ongoing storm cluster across the Ark-La-Miss and additional storms later D1 (today) in TX will likely modulate the effective frontal zone tomorrow. The more probable corridor for severe-storm development Tuesday will be along the effective front from southwest into south central TX, though the usual forecast biases are a concern with convective outflow progressing farther southwest than explicitly forecast by model guidance. Where the boundary is established by afternoon, the richest moisture/warm temperatures beneath the elevated mixed layer will result in large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg). The boundary will also be coincident with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for supercells with very large hail, while any tornado threat will likely need to be focused with the stronger low-level shear along the modifying front/outflow with early storm development. Upscale growth into a larger cluster/MCS appears likely through the evening as convection spreads southeastward with an attendant threat for damaging winds/large hail. Farther east, the layered influences of ongoing and upcoming (D1) convection will largely drive the severe threat tomorrow across the Southeast. There will be some potential for a remnant MCV from convection tonight to move along the residual front/outflow tomorrow, potentially from MS to GA. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any convective clusters. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The greatest threat of large hail and wind damage will be over parts of southwest and south-central Texas. A locally greater threat for wind damage could also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley. ...TX to GA... A blocking pattern will persist across the CONUS, with ridging from the northern High Plains into the Prairie provinces, and a downstream closed low over the upper MS Valley. Broad cyclonic flow will likewise persist from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians, atop a mean baroclinic zone from TX to the Carolina coastal plain. Outflow from an ongoing storm cluster across the Ark-La-Miss and additional storms later D1 (today) in TX will likely modulate the effective frontal zone tomorrow. The more probable corridor for severe-storm development Tuesday will be along the effective front from southwest into south central TX, though the usual forecast biases are a concern with convective outflow progressing farther southwest than explicitly forecast by model guidance. Where the boundary is established by afternoon, the richest moisture/warm temperatures beneath the elevated mixed layer will result in large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg). The boundary will also be coincident with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for supercells with very large hail, while any tornado threat will likely need to be focused with the stronger low-level shear along the modifying front/outflow with early storm development. Upscale growth into a larger cluster/MCS appears likely through the evening as convection spreads southeastward with an attendant threat for damaging winds/large hail. Farther east, the layered influences of ongoing and upcoming (D1) convection will largely drive the severe threat tomorrow across the Southeast. There will be some potential for a remnant MCV from convection tonight to move along the residual front/outflow tomorrow, potentially from MS to GA. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any convective clusters. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The greatest threat of large hail and wind damage will be over parts of southwest and south-central Texas. A locally greater threat for wind damage could also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley. ...TX to GA... A blocking pattern will persist across the CONUS, with ridging from the northern High Plains into the Prairie provinces, and a downstream closed low over the upper MS Valley. Broad cyclonic flow will likewise persist from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians, atop a mean baroclinic zone from TX to the Carolina coastal plain. Outflow from an ongoing storm cluster across the Ark-La-Miss and additional storms later D1 (today) in TX will likely modulate the effective frontal zone tomorrow. The more probable corridor for severe-storm development Tuesday will be along the effective front from southwest into south central TX, though the usual forecast biases are a concern with convective outflow progressing farther southwest than explicitly forecast by model guidance. Where the boundary is established by afternoon, the richest moisture/warm temperatures beneath the elevated mixed layer will result in large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg). The boundary will also be coincident with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for supercells with very large hail, while any tornado threat will likely need to be focused with the stronger low-level shear along the modifying front/outflow with early storm development. Upscale growth into a larger cluster/MCS appears likely through the evening as convection spreads southeastward with an attendant threat for damaging winds/large hail. Farther east, the layered influences of ongoing and upcoming (D1) convection will largely drive the severe threat tomorrow across the Southeast. There will be some potential for a remnant MCV from convection tonight to move along the residual front/outflow tomorrow, potentially from MS to GA. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any convective clusters. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more