Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0990 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0990 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Areas affected...portions of north-central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261840Z - 261945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Elevated supercells may pose some hail risk along I-20 and into the DFW Metroplex early this afternoon. A more widespread severe risk is expected farther south later this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...As of 1830 UTC, regional radar imagery showed new thunderstorm development had occurred across the I-20 corridor west of DFW. These storms are likely rooted above the surface, developing atop a stable surface air mass in the wake of an early morning MCS. While some diurnal heating is occurring, it is likely these storms will remain elevated as the move northeastward atop the old surface cold pool. MUCAPE parcels between 700 and 800 MB are supporting 1000-1500 J/kg of elevated buoyancy with 35-40 kt of effective shear sufficient for supercells. While not expected to be overly intense, the buoyancy/shear profiles and supercell mode are favorable for severe hail across north-central TX early this afternoon. The lack of deeper buoyancy, especially with northeastward extent, suggests the severe threat should remain fairly isolated initially. A greater severe risk is likely to evolve along and south of I-20 with stronger convection emanating from central TX later this afternoon and evening. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 33199692 32909633 32419610 32259609 31509662 31469667 31399748 31609835 32109914 32529911 32999844 33199692 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0989 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 330... FOR WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0989 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Areas affected...west-central and south-central MS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 330... Valid 261747Z - 261945Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 330 continues. SUMMARY...The greatest risk for strong/locally severe damaging gusts (50-65 mph) appears focused from near I-20 southward into southern MS through 3pm CDT (20 UTC). DISCUSSION...Surface observations during the 15-17 UTC timeframe have shown temperatures warming from the the lower-mid 70s deg F to the mid 70s to lower 80s from south to north. Coincidentally, the cumulus field is slowly moving northward over southern MS and generally corresponds to the delineation of moderate instability south of the cumulus fine-line. Continued warming due in part to scattered to broken cloud cover will further steepen 0-2 km lapse rates. Despite modest to moderate 850-300 mb mean flow, an attendant MCV located near the ArkLaMiss will aid in squall line maintenance through the afternoon. The 18 UTC Slidell, Louisiana raob showed a lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio of 16.6 g/kg. Water-loaded downdrafts and surges in the squall line will act to facilitate stronger gusts to the surface as the squall line moves east this afternoon across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #330. ..Smith.. 05/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 32339111 32539090 32548952 32418943 31428956 31168983 31159129 31309141 32339111 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0331 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0331 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0331 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0331 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more