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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

MD 0991 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
Mesoscale Discussion 0991 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Areas affected...portions of south-central Texas and the Texas Hill Country Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 261903Z - 262030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to develop early this afternoon along a rapidly modifying remnant outflow across south-central TX. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely. A WW is likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Across portions of south-central TX and the western Hill Country, early afternoon observations showed strong diurnal heating was allowing for rapid air mass recovery along and north of a remnant outflow boundary. A wavy dryline was also analyzed from the TX Big Bend region northwestward into southeastern NM and should continue to slowly mix eastward through the early afternoon. As broad scale ascent from a southern stream shortwave trough overspreads these surface features, a combination of low-level convergence and near convective temperatures should result in scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. As surface temperatures near 90 degrees, initial incipient convective attempts were evident from visible imagery along the boundary. The warm temperatures with low 70-s F dewpoints beneath 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates are allowing for large buoyancy with 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles are in place and should continue to strengthen into this evening with the approach of the shortwave trough. With supercells expected in moderate shear and strong buoyancy, large to very large hail (2.5-3.5 in) is likely with a few intense storms. Some tornado risk may also develop with backed low-level flow near the outflow, and any supercells able to persist near the boundary. Damaging wind potential may increase as storms begin to cluster. Severe potential should increase rapidly early this afternoon as storms develop along the dryline and near the modified outflow. Storms moving northeastward will mainly pose a hail risk as they move deeper into the cooler surface air mass, with surface-based storms likely farther south and west. A weather watch will likely be needed. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29260084 29630147 30110157 30650163 31410237 31460236 32250181 31900010 31189855 30479818 29379823 28859868 28790029 29120052 29260084 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather threat remains limited with building ridge across the western CONUS promoting lighter winds across the Southwest. A few thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central New Mexico mountains into the Southern High Plains for Tuesday. However, convection anchoring to terrain features via slow storm motions should prolong rain core residence times preventing a more widespread dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. Generally light winds will prevail across the Southwest where the driest fuels reside, though temperatures will warm with continued dry surface conditions. Widespread rainfall has improved fuels across much of the Southern Plains. Some dry/windy conditions may briefly overlap across far western Texas, but recent fuels guidance suggests new growth and available fuels remain limited across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more