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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas. ...Southern High Plains into the Southeast... The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL. Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated severe gusts. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025 Read more