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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail is possible in parts of west-central/south-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The primary change for this forecast update is the introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (Slight risk) for portions of east-central New Mexico into western Oklahoma. Across eastern NM/western TX, clearing skies over the past several hours have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s within a modifying cold pool in the wake of prior convection. Further upstream, low-level upslope flow and steep mid-level lapse rates are promoting strengthening convection within the southern Rockies. This activity is expected to propagate eastward through late afternoon and intensify as it migrates into the destabilizing and modestly sheared air mass. Recent CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of strong to severe winds will emerge as convection grows upscale this evening. Given the observed destabilizing trends, developing upstream convection, and consistent wind signal across multiple model runs/cores, confidence appears sufficiently high to introduce higher probabilities. Further east across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, deep, organized convection is emerging ahead of a pronounced MCV over the northern TX/OK Panhandles. A somewhat more widespread severe hail risk (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) may emerge through the evening hours downstream ahead of this feature. For additional details, see recently issued MCD #992 Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 05/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025/ ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and South-central Texas... Post-MCS outflow continues to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas at midday. Strong daytime heating is anticipated across west-central Texas including the Edwards Plateau vicinity as a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. The front and stalling composite outflow boundary will influence anticipated deep convective development later today. Strong to locally extreme instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy. Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon along/near the boundaries across the Concho Valley/eastern Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau and quickly become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain modest, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) appears likely. Some tornado potential will exist as well. With time, clustering/upscale growth is anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with an increasing severe wind potential into this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A well-organized convective line extends late this morning across the ArkLaMiss into southwest Louisiana, which the most organized/strongest portion of the line coincident with areas along/north of a modifying residual boundary as a byproduct of yesterday's convection. Damaging wind potential may modestly increase as the boundary layer diurnally warms. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 988. Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside, an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such potential. ...Southern/Central High Plains... A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional large hail and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas. This scenario will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for any potential Slight Risk upgrade. Read more