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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

238
ABPZ20 KNHC 270530
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon May 26 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. While recent satellite wind
data indicates the system does not yet have a well-defined
circulation, environmental conditions are favorable for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the
next day or two as the low moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

MD 1004 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335... FOR SOUTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1004 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Areas affected...south TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335... Valid 270420Z - 270545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335 continues. SUMMARY...Uncertainty exists over the longevity and potential evolution of ongoing strong to severe storms in south Texas, especially to the south of WW 335 overnight. DISCUSSION...Deep convective cores have largely been relegated along and north of the southward-sagging outflow boundary associated with the extensive MCS arcing across east to south TX. Large buoyancy and a 45-50 kt low-level jet per CRP VWP data are positives to maintaining a potential severe threat overnight across parts of the Brush Country. But the west/east-orientation of the convective cluster along with stout MLCIN with southern extent into the Lower Rio Grande Valley casts considerable uncertainty on cold pool acceleration. It is possible that convection may remain strong to locally severe as it ripples south along the sagging large-scale outflow. ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29069855 28579821 28249786 28069758 27729764 27549786 27669866 27999942 28580008 28989982 29069855 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1003 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335... FOR SOUTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1003 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Areas affected...southeast TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335... Valid 270357Z - 270530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe gusts should persist overnight with the forward-propagating portion of an extensive QLCS moving east across southeast Texas. DISCUSSION...The eastern flank of a broad arcing QLCS has been steadily progressing east at 35-40 kts. Despite earlier intense radar wind signatures, measured severe gusts have seemingly peaked around 50 kts with numerous strong, sub-severe gusts along the line. The forward-propagating portion of the QLCS may become detached from the trailing very deep convective cores along its southwest flank over the Brush Country of south TX. Prior convective overturning from earlier in the day activity, well sampled by the 00Z LCH/SHV soundings, suggests the northeast portion of the QLCS should struggle amid weak instability. Modification atop the prior outflow is underway per strong low-level southerlies in the CRP VWP and moderate southwesterlies in the HGX VWP. This suggests the greatest damaging wind potential may lie to the cool side of the pronounced MLCAPE gradient across northern parts of the Houston Metro towards Beaumont. ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX... LAT...LON 31649514 31589426 30989360 30819358 30049381 29849405 29509459 29579519 29589572 29739634 30009665 30479617 31009574 31649514 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0335 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 335 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE AUS TO 10 SSE CLL TO 35 NNE CLL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1003/1004. ..GRAMS..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 335 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-025-039-057-071-089-123-149-157-167-175-177-185-201-225- 239-255-283-285-291-297-311-313-321-339-373-407-455-469-471-473- 477-481-270540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BEE BRAZORIA CALHOUN CHAMBERS COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GALVESTON GOLIAD GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON JACKSON KARNES LA SALLE LAVACA LIBERTY LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MADISON MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY VICTORIA WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON GMZ237-330-335-270540- CW Read more

MD 1002 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1002 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Areas affected...west-central OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 270306Z - 270430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A pair of well-established supercells may continue to pose a large hail threat across west-central Oklahoma through about midnight, before likely subsiding overnight. DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell that started producing significant severe hail over Roger Mills County has now moved into Custer County, with a separate strong supercell over Dewey County. This activity has seemingly overachieved relative to the anticipated environment to the south of an MCV now in southern KS. Given how well-established this pair of supercells has become, the moist low-levels sampled in the 00Z OUN sounding suggest that MLCIN will remain slow to increase. But decreasing MLCAPE within the weak buoyancy range (below 1000 J/kg) and lack of appreciable low-level ascent do suggest that the large hail threat should subside overnight. ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 36019886 35839813 35519784 34979797 34789838 34829867 34979905 35309938 35589947 36019886 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW LBB TO 15 ESE PVW. WW 333 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 270500Z. ..GRAMS..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC045-065-075-087-107-129-153-169-179-191-211-303-305-393-483- 270500- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH CROSBY DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALL HEMPHILL LUBBOCK LYNN ROBERTS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW LBB TO 15 ESE PVW. WW 333 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 270500Z. ..GRAMS..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC045-065-075-087-107-129-153-169-179-191-211-303-305-393-483- 270500- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH CROSBY DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALL HEMPHILL LUBBOCK LYNN ROBERTS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW LBB TO 15 ESE PVW. WW 333 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 270500Z. ..GRAMS..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC045-065-075-087-107-129-153-169-179-191-211-303-305-393-483- 270500- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH CROSBY DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALL HEMPHILL LUBBOCK LYNN ROBERTS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW LBB TO 15 ESE PVW. WW 333 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 270500Z. ..GRAMS..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC045-065-075-087-107-129-153-169-179-191-211-303-305-393-483- 270500- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH CROSBY DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALL HEMPHILL LUBBOCK LYNN ROBERTS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more