Aggregator

WW 0331 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 331 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE 6R6 TO 40 W AUS. ..GRAMS..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 331 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-137-163-187-209-259-265-287- 325-385-453-463-491-493-507-270240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP BEXAR BLANCO BURNET CALDWELL COMAL EDWARDS FRIO GUADALUPE HAYS KENDALL KERR LEE MEDINA REAL TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON WILSON ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0331 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 331 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE 6R6 TO 40 W AUS. ..GRAMS..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 331 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-137-163-187-209-259-265-287- 325-385-453-463-491-493-507-270240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP BEXAR BLANCO BURNET CALDWELL COMAL EDWARDS FRIO GUADALUPE HAYS KENDALL KERR LEE MEDINA REAL TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON WILSON ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 331 TORNADO TX 261935Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 331 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-Central and West-Central Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorm development including supercells will increasingly occur through mid/late afternoon across the Edwards Plateau/Concho Valley southeastward along a boundary toward the Hill Country and I-35 corridor of south-central Texas. Very large hail is expected with the most intense storms given the magnitude of the instability, while some tornado threat will exist as well. Clusters of east/southeastward-moving storms may evolve by early evening with a heightened severe-wind potential toward the Hill Country/I-35 vicinity. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of San Angelo TX to 50 miles south southeast of Hondo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 330... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0332 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CEW TO 35 SE BHM. WW 332 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270300Z. ..THORNTON..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-017-081-087-109-113-123-270300- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS LEE MACON PIKE RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0332 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CEW TO 35 SE BHM. WW 332 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270300Z. ..THORNTON..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-017-081-087-109-113-123-270300- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS LEE MACON PIKE RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0332 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CEW TO 35 SE BHM. WW 332 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270300Z. ..THORNTON..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-017-081-087-109-113-123-270300- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS LEE MACON PIKE RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0332 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CEW TO 35 SE BHM. WW 332 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270300Z. ..THORNTON..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-017-081-087-109-113-123-270300- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS LEE MACON PIKE RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0332 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CEW TO 35 SE BHM. WW 332 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270300Z. ..THORNTON..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-017-081-087-109-113-123-270300- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS LEE MACON PIKE RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0332 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CEW TO 35 SE BHM. WW 332 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270300Z. ..THORNTON..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-017-081-087-109-113-123-270300- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS LEE MACON PIKE RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 332 SEVERE TSTM AL 262100Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 332 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and South-Central Alabama * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A linear cluster of storms will continue generally eastward into and across southwest/south-central Alabama through early/mid-evening, with damaging winds as the most likely impact. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 90 miles west southwest of Selma AL to 10 miles east southeast of Montgomery AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 330...WW 331... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0334 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0334 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0334 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0334 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will propagate across south central Texas this evening. Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary severe threats. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a slow-moving upper trough over the High Plains. This feature appears to be handled reasonably well by earlier model guidance and will prove to be partially influential in maintaining several thunderstorm clusters through the evening, into the overnight hours. Of greatest concern is the complex of deep convection that has developed over the Hill Country of central TX. Several supercells are embedded within the larger complex. Very large hail has been noted with these supercells, and perhaps a half dozen updrafts are likely generating large hail at this time. 00z sounding from DRT exhibits seasonally strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and modest 0-6km shear. Latest diagnostic data suggests a reservoir of at least 4000 J/kg MLCAPE resides across south central TX ahead of this activity. Some nocturnal increase to the LLJ is forecast across the middle TX Coast, and this may encourage an MCS to mature as it advances downstream ahead of the larger trough. Damaging winds may become more common as this cluster organizes. Farther north across the southern TX Panhandle region into western OK, isolated thunderstorms may continue to generate some hail. 00z sounding from AMA suggests ample deep-layer shear for the maintenance of ongoing activity, at least for several more hours. With time, nocturnal cooling may result in less robust updrafts; however, a few strong storms may continue through the overnight hours across this portion of the southern Plains. ..Darrow.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will propagate across south central Texas this evening. Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary severe threats. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a slow-moving upper trough over the High Plains. This feature appears to be handled reasonably well by earlier model guidance and will prove to be partially influential in maintaining several thunderstorm clusters through the evening, into the overnight hours. Of greatest concern is the complex of deep convection that has developed over the Hill Country of central TX. Several supercells are embedded within the larger complex. Very large hail has been noted with these supercells, and perhaps a half dozen updrafts are likely generating large hail at this time. 00z sounding from DRT exhibits seasonally strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and modest 0-6km shear. Latest diagnostic data suggests a reservoir of at least 4000 J/kg MLCAPE resides across south central TX ahead of this activity. Some nocturnal increase to the LLJ is forecast across the middle TX Coast, and this may encourage an MCS to mature as it advances downstream ahead of the larger trough. Damaging winds may become more common as this cluster organizes. Farther north across the southern TX Panhandle region into western OK, isolated thunderstorms may continue to generate some hail. 00z sounding from AMA suggests ample deep-layer shear for the maintenance of ongoing activity, at least for several more hours. With time, nocturnal cooling may result in less robust updrafts; however, a few strong storms may continue through the overnight hours across this portion of the southern Plains. ..Darrow.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will propagate across south central Texas this evening. Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary severe threats. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a slow-moving upper trough over the High Plains. This feature appears to be handled reasonably well by earlier model guidance and will prove to be partially influential in maintaining several thunderstorm clusters through the evening, into the overnight hours. Of greatest concern is the complex of deep convection that has developed over the Hill Country of central TX. Several supercells are embedded within the larger complex. Very large hail has been noted with these supercells, and perhaps a half dozen updrafts are likely generating large hail at this time. 00z sounding from DRT exhibits seasonally strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and modest 0-6km shear. Latest diagnostic data suggests a reservoir of at least 4000 J/kg MLCAPE resides across south central TX ahead of this activity. Some nocturnal increase to the LLJ is forecast across the middle TX Coast, and this may encourage an MCS to mature as it advances downstream ahead of the larger trough. Damaging winds may become more common as this cluster organizes. Farther north across the southern TX Panhandle region into western OK, isolated thunderstorms may continue to generate some hail. 00z sounding from AMA suggests ample deep-layer shear for the maintenance of ongoing activity, at least for several more hours. With time, nocturnal cooling may result in less robust updrafts; however, a few strong storms may continue through the overnight hours across this portion of the southern Plains. ..Darrow.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will propagate across south central Texas this evening. Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary severe threats. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a slow-moving upper trough over the High Plains. This feature appears to be handled reasonably well by earlier model guidance and will prove to be partially influential in maintaining several thunderstorm clusters through the evening, into the overnight hours. Of greatest concern is the complex of deep convection that has developed over the Hill Country of central TX. Several supercells are embedded within the larger complex. Very large hail has been noted with these supercells, and perhaps a half dozen updrafts are likely generating large hail at this time. 00z sounding from DRT exhibits seasonally strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and modest 0-6km shear. Latest diagnostic data suggests a reservoir of at least 4000 J/kg MLCAPE resides across south central TX ahead of this activity. Some nocturnal increase to the LLJ is forecast across the middle TX Coast, and this may encourage an MCS to mature as it advances downstream ahead of the larger trough. Damaging winds may become more common as this cluster organizes. Farther north across the southern TX Panhandle region into western OK, isolated thunderstorms may continue to generate some hail. 00z sounding from AMA suggests ample deep-layer shear for the maintenance of ongoing activity, at least for several more hours. With time, nocturnal cooling may result in less robust updrafts; however, a few strong storms may continue through the overnight hours across this portion of the southern Plains. ..Darrow.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will propagate across south central Texas this evening. Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary severe threats. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a slow-moving upper trough over the High Plains. This feature appears to be handled reasonably well by earlier model guidance and will prove to be partially influential in maintaining several thunderstorm clusters through the evening, into the overnight hours. Of greatest concern is the complex of deep convection that has developed over the Hill Country of central TX. Several supercells are embedded within the larger complex. Very large hail has been noted with these supercells, and perhaps a half dozen updrafts are likely generating large hail at this time. 00z sounding from DRT exhibits seasonally strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and modest 0-6km shear. Latest diagnostic data suggests a reservoir of at least 4000 J/kg MLCAPE resides across south central TX ahead of this activity. Some nocturnal increase to the LLJ is forecast across the middle TX Coast, and this may encourage an MCS to mature as it advances downstream ahead of the larger trough. Damaging winds may become more common as this cluster organizes. Farther north across the southern TX Panhandle region into western OK, isolated thunderstorms may continue to generate some hail. 00z sounding from AMA suggests ample deep-layer shear for the maintenance of ongoing activity, at least for several more hours. With time, nocturnal cooling may result in less robust updrafts; however, a few strong storms may continue through the overnight hours across this portion of the southern Plains. ..Darrow.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will propagate across south central Texas this evening. Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary severe threats. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a slow-moving upper trough over the High Plains. This feature appears to be handled reasonably well by earlier model guidance and will prove to be partially influential in maintaining several thunderstorm clusters through the evening, into the overnight hours. Of greatest concern is the complex of deep convection that has developed over the Hill Country of central TX. Several supercells are embedded within the larger complex. Very large hail has been noted with these supercells, and perhaps a half dozen updrafts are likely generating large hail at this time. 00z sounding from DRT exhibits seasonally strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and modest 0-6km shear. Latest diagnostic data suggests a reservoir of at least 4000 J/kg MLCAPE resides across south central TX ahead of this activity. Some nocturnal increase to the LLJ is forecast across the middle TX Coast, and this may encourage an MCS to mature as it advances downstream ahead of the larger trough. Damaging winds may become more common as this cluster organizes. Farther north across the southern TX Panhandle region into western OK, isolated thunderstorms may continue to generate some hail. 00z sounding from AMA suggests ample deep-layer shear for the maintenance of ongoing activity, at least for several more hours. With time, nocturnal cooling may result in less robust updrafts; however, a few strong storms may continue through the overnight hours across this portion of the southern Plains. ..Darrow.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will propagate across south central Texas this evening. Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary severe threats. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a slow-moving upper trough over the High Plains. This feature appears to be handled reasonably well by earlier model guidance and will prove to be partially influential in maintaining several thunderstorm clusters through the evening, into the overnight hours. Of greatest concern is the complex of deep convection that has developed over the Hill Country of central TX. Several supercells are embedded within the larger complex. Very large hail has been noted with these supercells, and perhaps a half dozen updrafts are likely generating large hail at this time. 00z sounding from DRT exhibits seasonally strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and modest 0-6km shear. Latest diagnostic data suggests a reservoir of at least 4000 J/kg MLCAPE resides across south central TX ahead of this activity. Some nocturnal increase to the LLJ is forecast across the middle TX Coast, and this may encourage an MCS to mature as it advances downstream ahead of the larger trough. Damaging winds may become more common as this cluster organizes. Farther north across the southern TX Panhandle region into western OK, isolated thunderstorms may continue to generate some hail. 00z sounding from AMA suggests ample deep-layer shear for the maintenance of ongoing activity, at least for several more hours. With time, nocturnal cooling may result in less robust updrafts; however, a few strong storms may continue through the overnight hours across this portion of the southern Plains. ..Darrow.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will propagate across south central Texas this evening. Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary severe threats. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a slow-moving upper trough over the High Plains. This feature appears to be handled reasonably well by earlier model guidance and will prove to be partially influential in maintaining several thunderstorm clusters through the evening, into the overnight hours. Of greatest concern is the complex of deep convection that has developed over the Hill Country of central TX. Several supercells are embedded within the larger complex. Very large hail has been noted with these supercells, and perhaps a half dozen updrafts are likely generating large hail at this time. 00z sounding from DRT exhibits seasonally strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and modest 0-6km shear. Latest diagnostic data suggests a reservoir of at least 4000 J/kg MLCAPE resides across south central TX ahead of this activity. Some nocturnal increase to the LLJ is forecast across the middle TX Coast, and this may encourage an MCS to mature as it advances downstream ahead of the larger trough. Damaging winds may become more common as this cluster organizes. Farther north across the southern TX Panhandle region into western OK, isolated thunderstorms may continue to generate some hail. 00z sounding from AMA suggests ample deep-layer shear for the maintenance of ongoing activity, at least for several more hours. With time, nocturnal cooling may result in less robust updrafts; however, a few strong storms may continue through the overnight hours across this portion of the southern Plains. ..Darrow.. 05/27/2025 Read more