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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/27/2025 Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ASD TO 35 N GPT TO 35 S MEI TO 25 ENE MEI. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-271640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PERRY STONE WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ASD TO 35 N GPT TO 35 S MEI TO 25 ENE MEI. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-271640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PERRY STONE WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ASD TO 35 N GPT TO 35 S MEI TO 25 ENE MEI. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-271640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PERRY STONE WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ASD TO 35 N GPT TO 35 S MEI TO 25 ENE MEI. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-271640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PERRY STONE WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ASD TO 35 N GPT TO 35 S MEI TO 25 ENE MEI. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-271640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PERRY STONE WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ASD TO 35 N GPT TO 35 S MEI TO 25 ENE MEI. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-271640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PERRY STONE WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 336 SEVERE TSTM LA MS CW 271005Z - 271800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 336 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East and Southeast Louisiana Southern and Central Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 505 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A small bowing cluster of thunderstorms should continue to pose some threat for scattered damaging winds this morning into the early afternoon. Isolated hail may occur with cells ahead of the cluster, and a brief tornado also appears possible with circulations embedded within the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Natchez MS to 50 miles east of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 N MSY TO ASD TO 25 SSW PIB TO 30 SW MEI TO 10 W MEI TO 30 N MEI. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC103-271640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ST. TAMMANY MSC023-035-039-041-045-047-059-061-067-075-109-111-131-147-153- 271640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE FORREST GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON JASPER JONES LAUDERDALE PEARL RIVER PERRY STONE WALTHALL WAYNE GMZ530-271640- CW Read more

MD 1007 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1007 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0855 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana...southeastern Mississippi...southern Alabama...and the western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271355Z - 271530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An increasingly unstable airmass is developing ahead of ongoing storms. A downstream watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...An ongoing cluster/line of storms moving across southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana has had occasional reports of wind damage. Ahead of this line, a very moist airmass is in place with low to mid 70s dewpoints. In addition, mostly clear skies are present which has allowed for temperatures to warm into the low 80s. Additional heating is anticipated with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg expected. Mid-level flow around 30 to 35 knots (sampled by HDC VWP) should provide ample shear for maintenance of the ongoing cluster. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from this activity through the late morning and into the afternoon. A downstream severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to address this threat. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30919014 31598979 32558862 32968793 33308693 33088596 32538551 31368523 30478587 30308669 30228762 30198834 30028875 29498895 29028900 28938975 28979075 29159117 30279076 30919014 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MSY TO 40 NNW MSY TO 20 E MCB TO 30 NE MCB TO 65 NW PIB TO 60 S GWO. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC093-095-103-105-117-271440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC023-031-035-039-041-045-047-059-061-065-067-073-075-077-091- 101-109-111-121-123-127-129-131-147-153-271440- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE MARION NEWTON PEARL RIVER PERRY RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH STONE WALTHALL WAYNE Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE LFT TO 30 SW MCB TO 25 NW MCB TO 60 NNE HEZ. ..LEITMAN..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-063-091-093-095-103-105-117-271340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC023-029-031-035-039-041-045-047-049-059-061-065-067-073-075- 077-085-091-101-109-111-113-121-123-127-129-131-147-149-153- 271340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON HINDS JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LINCOLN MARION NEWTON PEARL RIVER PERRY PIKE RANKIN SCOTT Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more