Aggregator

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/18/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-025-027-041-043-055-061-071-089-099-101-119-180140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CROWLEY CUSTER EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO TELLER KSC129-180140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORTON NMC007-021-033-037-047-059-180140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX HARDING MORA Read more

MD 2094 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613... FOR SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM INTO THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 2094 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Areas affected...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into the western OK/TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613... Valid 172247Z - 180045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613 continues. SUMMARY...Hail and gusty winds remain possible with thunderstorms this evening. DISCUSSION...Upper trough is settling south across the central Rockies early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is digging southeast across CO, which appears to be influencing convection along the Front Range, south to the CO/NM border, just east of Raton. Strongest buoyancy extends across the OK Panhandle into central portions of the watch, and latest radar data suggests several robust updrafts are likely generating severe hail east of Raton. This activity will continue to propagate southeast along a frontal zone that arcs from north of Clayton NM-south of Guymon OK. Other more isolated activity should spread southeast off the Palmer Divide along the northern fringe of ww613. Hail and wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35240491 38640551 38630255 35230206 35240491 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/17/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-025-027-041-043-055-061-071-089-099-101-119-180040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CROWLEY CUSTER EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO TELLER KSC129-180040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORTON NMC007-021-033-037-047-059-180040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX HARDING MORA Read more

MD 2093 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2093 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern into central Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172201Z - 172330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of additional severe gusts are possible over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...An organized multicellular cluster has developed over southern IA, with a recent history of producing at least one measured severe gust. This cluster is showing slight bowing tendencies as it progresses through an ambient environment characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical wind shear is weak, and buoyancy does decrease downstream, likely because of preceding showers and thunderstorms. As such, the severe threat should remain sparse and localized. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 41039416 41559385 41729323 41709269 41419240 41119238 40819244 40689271 40679318 40729387 41039416 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 613 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 172055Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Southwest Kansas Northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially isolated severe storms including some supercells will continue to develop initially across southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico including Front Range areas and Raton Mesa. Bouts of large hail can be expected as the most probable hazard, with stronger winds also possible and perhaps a brief tornado risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Pueblo CO to 75 miles southwest of Dalhart TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that
the circulation appears to be becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
day or two while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over
the central portion of the eastern Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/17/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-025-027-041-043-055-061-071-089-099-101-119-172340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CROWLEY CUSTER EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO TELLER KSC129-172340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORTON NMC007-021-033-037-047-059-172340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX HARDING MORA Read more

MD 2092 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...FAR WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 2092 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico...far western OK/TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 172015Z - 172215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds will be possible with initial supercells. With time a cluster or two may move into the southern High Plains with an attendant wind threat. A watch is possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Cumulus development has become more prominent from near Colorado Springs southward to the Raton Mesa this afternoon--with recent thunderstorm initiation noted in NLDN data. At least some MLCIN remains within the Plains to the east, but this should erode within the next couple of hours and certainly by late afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow around the High Plains upper trough has promoted 30-40 kts of effective shear across the terrain. Low 50s F dewpoints at this elevation supports near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms should at least initially be supercells capable of large hail and severe gusts. Given the easterly winds and presence of a weak boundary, a brief tornado is also possible. Over time, some upscale growth can be expected with the well-mixed boundary layer and weak low-level shear leading to propagating outflow. A cluster or two could persist into the evening and move into parts of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 36820460 37480488 38250516 38850516 39060487 38760423 38400385 37880314 37340276 36810268 36240294 36180372 36820460 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/17/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-025-027-041-043-055-061-071-089-099-101-119-172240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CROWLEY CUSTER EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO TELLER KSC129-172240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORTON NMC007-021-033-037-047-059-172240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX HARDING MORA Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek as an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. The flow pattern will transition to stronger zonal flow through the weekend and into next week. The increase in dry/windy conditions should support an increase in fire-weather potential. ...Northwest and Northern Great Basin... With shortwave ridging in place through the remainder of the week, a significant warming trend is expected into the weekend. Initially dry conditions beneath the ridge will gradually change as mid-level moisture will begin to move into the area late D2/Thursday continuing through D3/Friday and into the weekend. While details remain scant, some chance for isolated thunderstorms appears likely across northern CA into southern OR and the northern Great Basin into the weekend. A primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, the low-end potential for lightning over the drier areas could support some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D4/Saturday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will return to the area through the weekend and into next week as a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet move onshore. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. This seem especially likely D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday where 40% critical probabilities have been added. With fuels expected to dry over the preceding days, some increase in fire-weather threat is expected despite the limited dry fuels. Thereafter, model uncertainty and the potential for rainfall suggest fire-weather concerns will be lower. ...Eastern US... Associated with an upper low and surface cold front moving offshore across parts of the Northeast later this week, gusty northwest winds and some brief low humidity are possible D3/Friday. Continued dry but less windy conditions are also possible within the post-frontal air mass into D4/Saturday. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend given ongoing drought. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek as an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. The flow pattern will transition to stronger zonal flow through the weekend and into next week. The increase in dry/windy conditions should support an increase in fire-weather potential. ...Northwest and Northern Great Basin... With shortwave ridging in place through the remainder of the week, a significant warming trend is expected into the weekend. Initially dry conditions beneath the ridge will gradually change as mid-level moisture will begin to move into the area late D2/Thursday continuing through D3/Friday and into the weekend. While details remain scant, some chance for isolated thunderstorms appears likely across northern CA into southern OR and the northern Great Basin into the weekend. A primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, the low-end potential for lightning over the drier areas could support some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D4/Saturday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will return to the area through the weekend and into next week as a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet move onshore. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. This seem especially likely D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday where 40% critical probabilities have been added. With fuels expected to dry over the preceding days, some increase in fire-weather threat is expected despite the limited dry fuels. Thereafter, model uncertainty and the potential for rainfall suggest fire-weather concerns will be lower. ...Eastern US... Associated with an upper low and surface cold front moving offshore across parts of the Northeast later this week, gusty northwest winds and some brief low humidity are possible D3/Friday. Continued dry but less windy conditions are also possible within the post-frontal air mass into D4/Saturday. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend given ongoing drought. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek as an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. The flow pattern will transition to stronger zonal flow through the weekend and into next week. The increase in dry/windy conditions should support an increase in fire-weather potential. ...Northwest and Northern Great Basin... With shortwave ridging in place through the remainder of the week, a significant warming trend is expected into the weekend. Initially dry conditions beneath the ridge will gradually change as mid-level moisture will begin to move into the area late D2/Thursday continuing through D3/Friday and into the weekend. While details remain scant, some chance for isolated thunderstorms appears likely across northern CA into southern OR and the northern Great Basin into the weekend. A primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, the low-end potential for lightning over the drier areas could support some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D4/Saturday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will return to the area through the weekend and into next week as a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet move onshore. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. This seem especially likely D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday where 40% critical probabilities have been added. With fuels expected to dry over the preceding days, some increase in fire-weather threat is expected despite the limited dry fuels. Thereafter, model uncertainty and the potential for rainfall suggest fire-weather concerns will be lower. ...Eastern US... Associated with an upper low and surface cold front moving offshore across parts of the Northeast later this week, gusty northwest winds and some brief low humidity are possible D3/Friday. Continued dry but less windy conditions are also possible within the post-frontal air mass into D4/Saturday. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend given ongoing drought. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek as an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. The flow pattern will transition to stronger zonal flow through the weekend and into next week. The increase in dry/windy conditions should support an increase in fire-weather potential. ...Northwest and Northern Great Basin... With shortwave ridging in place through the remainder of the week, a significant warming trend is expected into the weekend. Initially dry conditions beneath the ridge will gradually change as mid-level moisture will begin to move into the area late D2/Thursday continuing through D3/Friday and into the weekend. While details remain scant, some chance for isolated thunderstorms appears likely across northern CA into southern OR and the northern Great Basin into the weekend. A primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, the low-end potential for lightning over the drier areas could support some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D4/Saturday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will return to the area through the weekend and into next week as a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet move onshore. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. This seem especially likely D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday where 40% critical probabilities have been added. With fuels expected to dry over the preceding days, some increase in fire-weather threat is expected despite the limited dry fuels. Thereafter, model uncertainty and the potential for rainfall suggest fire-weather concerns will be lower. ...Eastern US... Associated with an upper low and surface cold front moving offshore across parts of the Northeast later this week, gusty northwest winds and some brief low humidity are possible D3/Friday. Continued dry but less windy conditions are also possible within the post-frontal air mass into D4/Saturday. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend given ongoing drought. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek as an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. The flow pattern will transition to stronger zonal flow through the weekend and into next week. The increase in dry/windy conditions should support an increase in fire-weather potential. ...Northwest and Northern Great Basin... With shortwave ridging in place through the remainder of the week, a significant warming trend is expected into the weekend. Initially dry conditions beneath the ridge will gradually change as mid-level moisture will begin to move into the area late D2/Thursday continuing through D3/Friday and into the weekend. While details remain scant, some chance for isolated thunderstorms appears likely across northern CA into southern OR and the northern Great Basin into the weekend. A primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, the low-end potential for lightning over the drier areas could support some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D4/Saturday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will return to the area through the weekend and into next week as a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet move onshore. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. This seem especially likely D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday where 40% critical probabilities have been added. With fuels expected to dry over the preceding days, some increase in fire-weather threat is expected despite the limited dry fuels. Thereafter, model uncertainty and the potential for rainfall suggest fire-weather concerns will be lower. ...Eastern US... Associated with an upper low and surface cold front moving offshore across parts of the Northeast later this week, gusty northwest winds and some brief low humidity are possible D3/Friday. Continued dry but less windy conditions are also possible within the post-frontal air mass into D4/Saturday. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend given ongoing drought. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek as an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. The flow pattern will transition to stronger zonal flow through the weekend and into next week. The increase in dry/windy conditions should support an increase in fire-weather potential. ...Northwest and Northern Great Basin... With shortwave ridging in place through the remainder of the week, a significant warming trend is expected into the weekend. Initially dry conditions beneath the ridge will gradually change as mid-level moisture will begin to move into the area late D2/Thursday continuing through D3/Friday and into the weekend. While details remain scant, some chance for isolated thunderstorms appears likely across northern CA into southern OR and the northern Great Basin into the weekend. A primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, the low-end potential for lightning over the drier areas could support some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D4/Saturday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will return to the area through the weekend and into next week as a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet move onshore. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. This seem especially likely D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday where 40% critical probabilities have been added. With fuels expected to dry over the preceding days, some increase in fire-weather threat is expected despite the limited dry fuels. Thereafter, model uncertainty and the potential for rainfall suggest fire-weather concerns will be lower. ...Eastern US... Associated with an upper low and surface cold front moving offshore across parts of the Northeast later this week, gusty northwest winds and some brief low humidity are possible D3/Friday. Continued dry but less windy conditions are also possible within the post-frontal air mass into D4/Saturday. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend given ongoing drought. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek as an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. The flow pattern will transition to stronger zonal flow through the weekend and into next week. The increase in dry/windy conditions should support an increase in fire-weather potential. ...Northwest and Northern Great Basin... With shortwave ridging in place through the remainder of the week, a significant warming trend is expected into the weekend. Initially dry conditions beneath the ridge will gradually change as mid-level moisture will begin to move into the area late D2/Thursday continuing through D3/Friday and into the weekend. While details remain scant, some chance for isolated thunderstorms appears likely across northern CA into southern OR and the northern Great Basin into the weekend. A primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, the low-end potential for lightning over the drier areas could support some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D4/Saturday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will return to the area through the weekend and into next week as a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet move onshore. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. This seem especially likely D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday where 40% critical probabilities have been added. With fuels expected to dry over the preceding days, some increase in fire-weather threat is expected despite the limited dry fuels. Thereafter, model uncertainty and the potential for rainfall suggest fire-weather concerns will be lower. ...Eastern US... Associated with an upper low and surface cold front moving offshore across parts of the Northeast later this week, gusty northwest winds and some brief low humidity are possible D3/Friday. Continued dry but less windy conditions are also possible within the post-frontal air mass into D4/Saturday. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend given ongoing drought. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek as an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. The flow pattern will transition to stronger zonal flow through the weekend and into next week. The increase in dry/windy conditions should support an increase in fire-weather potential. ...Northwest and Northern Great Basin... With shortwave ridging in place through the remainder of the week, a significant warming trend is expected into the weekend. Initially dry conditions beneath the ridge will gradually change as mid-level moisture will begin to move into the area late D2/Thursday continuing through D3/Friday and into the weekend. While details remain scant, some chance for isolated thunderstorms appears likely across northern CA into southern OR and the northern Great Basin into the weekend. A primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, the low-end potential for lightning over the drier areas could support some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D4/Saturday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will return to the area through the weekend and into next week as a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet move onshore. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. This seem especially likely D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday where 40% critical probabilities have been added. With fuels expected to dry over the preceding days, some increase in fire-weather threat is expected despite the limited dry fuels. Thereafter, model uncertainty and the potential for rainfall suggest fire-weather concerns will be lower. ...Eastern US... Associated with an upper low and surface cold front moving offshore across parts of the Northeast later this week, gusty northwest winds and some brief low humidity are possible D3/Friday. Continued dry but less windy conditions are also possible within the post-frontal air mass into D4/Saturday. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend given ongoing drought. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek as an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. The flow pattern will transition to stronger zonal flow through the weekend and into next week. The increase in dry/windy conditions should support an increase in fire-weather potential. ...Northwest and Northern Great Basin... With shortwave ridging in place through the remainder of the week, a significant warming trend is expected into the weekend. Initially dry conditions beneath the ridge will gradually change as mid-level moisture will begin to move into the area late D2/Thursday continuing through D3/Friday and into the weekend. While details remain scant, some chance for isolated thunderstorms appears likely across northern CA into southern OR and the northern Great Basin into the weekend. A primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, the low-end potential for lightning over the drier areas could support some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D4/Saturday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will return to the area through the weekend and into next week as a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet move onshore. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. This seem especially likely D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday where 40% critical probabilities have been added. With fuels expected to dry over the preceding days, some increase in fire-weather threat is expected despite the limited dry fuels. Thereafter, model uncertainty and the potential for rainfall suggest fire-weather concerns will be lower. ...Eastern US... Associated with an upper low and surface cold front moving offshore across parts of the Northeast later this week, gusty northwest winds and some brief low humidity are possible D3/Friday. Continued dry but less windy conditions are also possible within the post-frontal air mass into D4/Saturday. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend given ongoing drought. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek as an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. The flow pattern will transition to stronger zonal flow through the weekend and into next week. The increase in dry/windy conditions should support an increase in fire-weather potential. ...Northwest and Northern Great Basin... With shortwave ridging in place through the remainder of the week, a significant warming trend is expected into the weekend. Initially dry conditions beneath the ridge will gradually change as mid-level moisture will begin to move into the area late D2/Thursday continuing through D3/Friday and into the weekend. While details remain scant, some chance for isolated thunderstorms appears likely across northern CA into southern OR and the northern Great Basin into the weekend. A primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, the low-end potential for lightning over the drier areas could support some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D4/Saturday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will return to the area through the weekend and into next week as a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet move onshore. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. This seem especially likely D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday where 40% critical probabilities have been added. With fuels expected to dry over the preceding days, some increase in fire-weather threat is expected despite the limited dry fuels. Thereafter, model uncertainty and the potential for rainfall suggest fire-weather concerns will be lower. ...Eastern US... Associated with an upper low and surface cold front moving offshore across parts of the Northeast later this week, gusty northwest winds and some brief low humidity are possible D3/Friday. Continued dry but less windy conditions are also possible within the post-frontal air mass into D4/Saturday. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend given ongoing drought. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek as an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. The flow pattern will transition to stronger zonal flow through the weekend and into next week. The increase in dry/windy conditions should support an increase in fire-weather potential. ...Northwest and Northern Great Basin... With shortwave ridging in place through the remainder of the week, a significant warming trend is expected into the weekend. Initially dry conditions beneath the ridge will gradually change as mid-level moisture will begin to move into the area late D2/Thursday continuing through D3/Friday and into the weekend. While details remain scant, some chance for isolated thunderstorms appears likely across northern CA into southern OR and the northern Great Basin into the weekend. A primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, the low-end potential for lightning over the drier areas could support some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D4/Saturday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will return to the area through the weekend and into next week as a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet move onshore. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. This seem especially likely D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday where 40% critical probabilities have been added. With fuels expected to dry over the preceding days, some increase in fire-weather threat is expected despite the limited dry fuels. Thereafter, model uncertainty and the potential for rainfall suggest fire-weather concerns will be lower. ...Eastern US... Associated with an upper low and surface cold front moving offshore across parts of the Northeast later this week, gusty northwest winds and some brief low humidity are possible D3/Friday. Continued dry but less windy conditions are also possible within the post-frontal air mass into D4/Saturday. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend given ongoing drought. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more