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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe storms are not currently expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place across the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves eastward across SD. Scattered diurnal storm development will be possible from the ArkLaTex into much of the MS Valley, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. With weak deep-layer flow/shear expected across this region, the threat for organized severe storms currently appears low. Late in the period, elevated storms may develop within a low-level warm advection regime across parts of KS/OK. Farther west, a midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from central CA toward the Great Basin, while a broader mid/upper-level trough remains offshore of southern CA. This pattern will favor potential for scattered storms across parts of the Southwest, with at least isolated storm development possible from central/northern CA into adjacent parts of NV. ..Dean.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe storms are not currently expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place across the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves eastward across SD. Scattered diurnal storm development will be possible from the ArkLaTex into much of the MS Valley, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. With weak deep-layer flow/shear expected across this region, the threat for organized severe storms currently appears low. Late in the period, elevated storms may develop within a low-level warm advection regime across parts of KS/OK. Farther west, a midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from central CA toward the Great Basin, while a broader mid/upper-level trough remains offshore of southern CA. This pattern will favor potential for scattered storms across parts of the Southwest, with at least isolated storm development possible from central/northern CA into adjacent parts of NV. ..Dean.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon update... Predominately wet thunderstorms associated with the remnants of TS Mario are expected over much of central and Southern CA D2/Thursday. More isolated storms may develop across parts of northern CA and southern OR into early D3/Friday. However, weak CAPE and rapidly increasing humidity suggest any risk for lightning ignitions will be short-lived and localized. Thereafter, higher chances of wetting rainfall are expected to continue to temper fuels. Otherwise, no changes were made, overall fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon update... Predominately wet thunderstorms associated with the remnants of TS Mario are expected over much of central and Southern CA D2/Thursday. More isolated storms may develop across parts of northern CA and southern OR into early D3/Friday. However, weak CAPE and rapidly increasing humidity suggest any risk for lightning ignitions will be short-lived and localized. Thereafter, higher chances of wetting rainfall are expected to continue to temper fuels. Otherwise, no changes were made, overall fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon update... Predominately wet thunderstorms associated with the remnants of TS Mario are expected over much of central and Southern CA D2/Thursday. More isolated storms may develop across parts of northern CA and southern OR into early D3/Friday. However, weak CAPE and rapidly increasing humidity suggest any risk for lightning ignitions will be short-lived and localized. Thereafter, higher chances of wetting rainfall are expected to continue to temper fuels. Otherwise, no changes were made, overall fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon update... Predominately wet thunderstorms associated with the remnants of TS Mario are expected over much of central and Southern CA D2/Thursday. More isolated storms may develop across parts of northern CA and southern OR into early D3/Friday. However, weak CAPE and rapidly increasing humidity suggest any risk for lightning ignitions will be short-lived and localized. Thereafter, higher chances of wetting rainfall are expected to continue to temper fuels. Otherwise, no changes were made, overall fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon update... Predominately wet thunderstorms associated with the remnants of TS Mario are expected over much of central and Southern CA D2/Thursday. More isolated storms may develop across parts of northern CA and southern OR into early D3/Friday. However, weak CAPE and rapidly increasing humidity suggest any risk for lightning ignitions will be short-lived and localized. Thereafter, higher chances of wetting rainfall are expected to continue to temper fuels. Otherwise, no changes were made, overall fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon update... Predominately wet thunderstorms associated with the remnants of TS Mario are expected over much of central and Southern CA D2/Thursday. More isolated storms may develop across parts of northern CA and southern OR into early D3/Friday. However, weak CAPE and rapidly increasing humidity suggest any risk for lightning ignitions will be short-lived and localized. Thereafter, higher chances of wetting rainfall are expected to continue to temper fuels. Otherwise, no changes were made, overall fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon update... Predominately wet thunderstorms associated with the remnants of TS Mario are expected over much of central and Southern CA D2/Thursday. More isolated storms may develop across parts of northern CA and southern OR into early D3/Friday. However, weak CAPE and rapidly increasing humidity suggest any risk for lightning ignitions will be short-lived and localized. Thereafter, higher chances of wetting rainfall are expected to continue to temper fuels. Otherwise, no changes were made, overall fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon update... Predominately wet thunderstorms associated with the remnants of TS Mario are expected over much of central and Southern CA D2/Thursday. More isolated storms may develop across parts of northern CA and southern OR into early D3/Friday. However, weak CAPE and rapidly increasing humidity suggest any risk for lightning ignitions will be short-lived and localized. Thereafter, higher chances of wetting rainfall are expected to continue to temper fuels. Otherwise, no changes were made, overall fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon update... Predominately wet thunderstorms associated with the remnants of TS Mario are expected over much of central and Southern CA D2/Thursday. More isolated storms may develop across parts of northern CA and southern OR into early D3/Friday. However, weak CAPE and rapidly increasing humidity suggest any risk for lightning ignitions will be short-lived and localized. Thereafter, higher chances of wetting rainfall are expected to continue to temper fuels. Otherwise, no changes were made, overall fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon update... Predominately wet thunderstorms associated with the remnants of TS Mario are expected over much of central and Southern CA D2/Thursday. More isolated storms may develop across parts of northern CA and southern OR into early D3/Friday. However, weak CAPE and rapidly increasing humidity suggest any risk for lightning ignitions will be short-lived and localized. Thereafter, higher chances of wetting rainfall are expected to continue to temper fuels. Otherwise, no changes were made, overall fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon update... Predominately wet thunderstorms associated with the remnants of TS Mario are expected over much of central and Southern CA D2/Thursday. More isolated storms may develop across parts of northern CA and southern OR into early D3/Friday. However, weak CAPE and rapidly increasing humidity suggest any risk for lightning ignitions will be short-lived and localized. Thereafter, higher chances of wetting rainfall are expected to continue to temper fuels. Otherwise, no changes were made, overall fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon update... Predominately wet thunderstorms associated with the remnants of TS Mario are expected over much of central and Southern CA D2/Thursday. More isolated storms may develop across parts of northern CA and southern OR into early D3/Friday. However, weak CAPE and rapidly increasing humidity suggest any risk for lightning ignitions will be short-lived and localized. Thereafter, higher chances of wetting rainfall are expected to continue to temper fuels. Otherwise, no changes were made, overall fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 17 18:59:02 UTC 2025.

Dry weather in the Spencerport area has made pumpkin-growing a challenge. The harvest took longer, and the pumpkins were smaller than normal. WROC-TV CBS 8 Rochester (N.Y.), Sep 15, 2025

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN MO...EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST AR...OK...AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the Midwest into the east-central and southern Plains on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Little change to the overall pattern is expected on Thursday, with a mid/upper-level trough expected to persist over the northern/central Plains. Within the broader trough, distinct mid/upper-level lows initially over northeast MT and central SD may begin to consolidate by Thursday night, as a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the central Plains into the lower MO Valley vicinity. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough related to the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Mario will move across parts of southern/central CA through the period. ...Parts of the east-central and southern Plains into the Ozarks and Upper Midwest... A weak surface low is forecast to move eastward across eastern SD on Thursday. A weak surface front will extend southward from the low across western MN/IA into eastern KS, and then southwestward into parts of OK and the TX Panhandle. The south and east extent of this front will be influenced by rather extensive early-morning convection. To the east of any remnant morning convection and cloud debris, moderate destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates will be possible from northeast OK into parts of MO/IA. Scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak, but a few weakly organized cells or clusters could evolve and pose some threat of locally damaging wind. Farther southwest along the trailing portion of the front, deep-layer shear will be somewhat stronger across parts of OK into the TX Panhandle, as midlevel winds veer to west-northwesterly. Storm coverage with southwest extent is rather uncertain, with the primary midlevel shortwave trough becoming increasingly removed from the region, but an isolated organized cell or two may evolve and pose some threat for hail and/or strong gusts. ...Southwest... Increasing moisture and the approaching mid/upper-level trough will support at least scattered storms across parts of southern/central AZ into southeast CA and far southern NV. Some modest enhancement to midlevel flow may overspread this region during the afternoon, but deep-layer shear is currently expected to remain rather weak. As a result, storms may remain disorganized, but localized downbursts cannot be ruled out, especially where stronger pre-storm heating occurs. ..Dean.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN MO...EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST AR...OK...AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the Midwest into the east-central and southern Plains on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Little change to the overall pattern is expected on Thursday, with a mid/upper-level trough expected to persist over the northern/central Plains. Within the broader trough, distinct mid/upper-level lows initially over northeast MT and central SD may begin to consolidate by Thursday night, as a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the central Plains into the lower MO Valley vicinity. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough related to the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Mario will move across parts of southern/central CA through the period. ...Parts of the east-central and southern Plains into the Ozarks and Upper Midwest... A weak surface low is forecast to move eastward across eastern SD on Thursday. A weak surface front will extend southward from the low across western MN/IA into eastern KS, and then southwestward into parts of OK and the TX Panhandle. The south and east extent of this front will be influenced by rather extensive early-morning convection. To the east of any remnant morning convection and cloud debris, moderate destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates will be possible from northeast OK into parts of MO/IA. Scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak, but a few weakly organized cells or clusters could evolve and pose some threat of locally damaging wind. Farther southwest along the trailing portion of the front, deep-layer shear will be somewhat stronger across parts of OK into the TX Panhandle, as midlevel winds veer to west-northwesterly. Storm coverage with southwest extent is rather uncertain, with the primary midlevel shortwave trough becoming increasingly removed from the region, but an isolated organized cell or two may evolve and pose some threat for hail and/or strong gusts. ...Southwest... Increasing moisture and the approaching mid/upper-level trough will support at least scattered storms across parts of southern/central AZ into southeast CA and far southern NV. Some modest enhancement to midlevel flow may overspread this region during the afternoon, but deep-layer shear is currently expected to remain rather weak. As a result, storms may remain disorganized, but localized downbursts cannot be ruled out, especially where stronger pre-storm heating occurs. ..Dean.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN MO...EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST AR...OK...AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the Midwest into the east-central and southern Plains on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Little change to the overall pattern is expected on Thursday, with a mid/upper-level trough expected to persist over the northern/central Plains. Within the broader trough, distinct mid/upper-level lows initially over northeast MT and central SD may begin to consolidate by Thursday night, as a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the central Plains into the lower MO Valley vicinity. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough related to the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Mario will move across parts of southern/central CA through the period. ...Parts of the east-central and southern Plains into the Ozarks and Upper Midwest... A weak surface low is forecast to move eastward across eastern SD on Thursday. A weak surface front will extend southward from the low across western MN/IA into eastern KS, and then southwestward into parts of OK and the TX Panhandle. The south and east extent of this front will be influenced by rather extensive early-morning convection. To the east of any remnant morning convection and cloud debris, moderate destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates will be possible from northeast OK into parts of MO/IA. Scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak, but a few weakly organized cells or clusters could evolve and pose some threat of locally damaging wind. Farther southwest along the trailing portion of the front, deep-layer shear will be somewhat stronger across parts of OK into the TX Panhandle, as midlevel winds veer to west-northwesterly. Storm coverage with southwest extent is rather uncertain, with the primary midlevel shortwave trough becoming increasingly removed from the region, but an isolated organized cell or two may evolve and pose some threat for hail and/or strong gusts. ...Southwest... Increasing moisture and the approaching mid/upper-level trough will support at least scattered storms across parts of southern/central AZ into southeast CA and far southern NV. Some modest enhancement to midlevel flow may overspread this region during the afternoon, but deep-layer shear is currently expected to remain rather weak. As a result, storms may remain disorganized, but localized downbursts cannot be ruled out, especially where stronger pre-storm heating occurs. ..Dean.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN MO...EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST AR...OK...AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the Midwest into the east-central and southern Plains on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Little change to the overall pattern is expected on Thursday, with a mid/upper-level trough expected to persist over the northern/central Plains. Within the broader trough, distinct mid/upper-level lows initially over northeast MT and central SD may begin to consolidate by Thursday night, as a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the central Plains into the lower MO Valley vicinity. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough related to the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Mario will move across parts of southern/central CA through the period. ...Parts of the east-central and southern Plains into the Ozarks and Upper Midwest... A weak surface low is forecast to move eastward across eastern SD on Thursday. A weak surface front will extend southward from the low across western MN/IA into eastern KS, and then southwestward into parts of OK and the TX Panhandle. The south and east extent of this front will be influenced by rather extensive early-morning convection. To the east of any remnant morning convection and cloud debris, moderate destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates will be possible from northeast OK into parts of MO/IA. Scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak, but a few weakly organized cells or clusters could evolve and pose some threat of locally damaging wind. Farther southwest along the trailing portion of the front, deep-layer shear will be somewhat stronger across parts of OK into the TX Panhandle, as midlevel winds veer to west-northwesterly. Storm coverage with southwest extent is rather uncertain, with the primary midlevel shortwave trough becoming increasingly removed from the region, but an isolated organized cell or two may evolve and pose some threat for hail and/or strong gusts. ...Southwest... Increasing moisture and the approaching mid/upper-level trough will support at least scattered storms across parts of southern/central AZ into southeast CA and far southern NV. Some modest enhancement to midlevel flow may overspread this region during the afternoon, but deep-layer shear is currently expected to remain rather weak. As a result, storms may remain disorganized, but localized downbursts cannot be ruled out, especially where stronger pre-storm heating occurs. ..Dean.. 09/17/2025 Read more