Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek as an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. The flow pattern will transition to stronger zonal flow through the weekend and into next week. The increase in dry/windy conditions should support an increase in fire-weather potential. ...Northwest and Northern Great Basin... With shortwave ridging in place through the remainder of the week, a significant warming trend is expected into the weekend. Initially dry conditions beneath the ridge will gradually change as mid-level moisture will begin to move into the area late D2/Thursday continuing through D3/Friday and into the weekend. While details remain scant, some chance for isolated thunderstorms appears likely across northern CA into southern OR and the northern Great Basin into the weekend. A primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, the low-end potential for lightning over the drier areas could support some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D4/Saturday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will return to the area through the weekend and into next week as a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet move onshore. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. This seem especially likely D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday where 40% critical probabilities have been added. With fuels expected to dry over the preceding days, some increase in fire-weather threat is expected despite the limited dry fuels. Thereafter, model uncertainty and the potential for rainfall suggest fire-weather concerns will be lower. ...Eastern US... Associated with an upper low and surface cold front moving offshore across parts of the Northeast later this week, gusty northwest winds and some brief low humidity are possible D3/Friday. Continued dry but less windy conditions are also possible within the post-frontal air mass into D4/Saturday. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend given ongoing drought. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek as an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. The flow pattern will transition to stronger zonal flow through the weekend and into next week. The increase in dry/windy conditions should support an increase in fire-weather potential. ...Northwest and Northern Great Basin... With shortwave ridging in place through the remainder of the week, a significant warming trend is expected into the weekend. Initially dry conditions beneath the ridge will gradually change as mid-level moisture will begin to move into the area late D2/Thursday continuing through D3/Friday and into the weekend. While details remain scant, some chance for isolated thunderstorms appears likely across northern CA into southern OR and the northern Great Basin into the weekend. A primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, the low-end potential for lightning over the drier areas could support some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D4/Saturday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will return to the area through the weekend and into next week as a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet move onshore. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. This seem especially likely D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday where 40% critical probabilities have been added. With fuels expected to dry over the preceding days, some increase in fire-weather threat is expected despite the limited dry fuels. Thereafter, model uncertainty and the potential for rainfall suggest fire-weather concerns will be lower. ...Eastern US... Associated with an upper low and surface cold front moving offshore across parts of the Northeast later this week, gusty northwest winds and some brief low humidity are possible D3/Friday. Continued dry but less windy conditions are also possible within the post-frontal air mass into D4/Saturday. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend given ongoing drought. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek as an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. The flow pattern will transition to stronger zonal flow through the weekend and into next week. The increase in dry/windy conditions should support an increase in fire-weather potential. ...Northwest and Northern Great Basin... With shortwave ridging in place through the remainder of the week, a significant warming trend is expected into the weekend. Initially dry conditions beneath the ridge will gradually change as mid-level moisture will begin to move into the area late D2/Thursday continuing through D3/Friday and into the weekend. While details remain scant, some chance for isolated thunderstorms appears likely across northern CA into southern OR and the northern Great Basin into the weekend. A primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, the low-end potential for lightning over the drier areas could support some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D4/Saturday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will return to the area through the weekend and into next week as a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet move onshore. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. This seem especially likely D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday where 40% critical probabilities have been added. With fuels expected to dry over the preceding days, some increase in fire-weather threat is expected despite the limited dry fuels. Thereafter, model uncertainty and the potential for rainfall suggest fire-weather concerns will be lower. ...Eastern US... Associated with an upper low and surface cold front moving offshore across parts of the Northeast later this week, gusty northwest winds and some brief low humidity are possible D3/Friday. Continued dry but less windy conditions are also possible within the post-frontal air mass into D4/Saturday. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend given ongoing drought. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek as an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. The flow pattern will transition to stronger zonal flow through the weekend and into next week. The increase in dry/windy conditions should support an increase in fire-weather potential. ...Northwest and Northern Great Basin... With shortwave ridging in place through the remainder of the week, a significant warming trend is expected into the weekend. Initially dry conditions beneath the ridge will gradually change as mid-level moisture will begin to move into the area late D2/Thursday continuing through D3/Friday and into the weekend. While details remain scant, some chance for isolated thunderstorms appears likely across northern CA into southern OR and the northern Great Basin into the weekend. A primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, the low-end potential for lightning over the drier areas could support some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D4/Saturday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will return to the area through the weekend and into next week as a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet move onshore. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. This seem especially likely D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday where 40% critical probabilities have been added. With fuels expected to dry over the preceding days, some increase in fire-weather threat is expected despite the limited dry fuels. Thereafter, model uncertainty and the potential for rainfall suggest fire-weather concerns will be lower. ...Eastern US... Associated with an upper low and surface cold front moving offshore across parts of the Northeast later this week, gusty northwest winds and some brief low humidity are possible D3/Friday. Continued dry but less windy conditions are also possible within the post-frontal air mass into D4/Saturday. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend given ongoing drought. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

A farmer near Wilton was feeding his second crop of hay to his livestock because the grass had not grown fast enough. Corn grown near Turner was less than 5 feet tall, although it ought to be 10 to 12 feet tall. An apple orchard has irrigation, but there were still areas where the water did not reach. Some apples were small and shriveled. WMTW-TV ABC 8 (Portland, Maine), Sep 17, 2025

MD 2091 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Areas affected...southern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 171916Z - 172145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of locally strong to severe downbursts through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing in coverage across portions on southern Louisiana, with occasional echo tops to 40-50 kft. Strong daytime heating amid upper 60s dew points has yielded MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg (MUCAPE >3000 J/kg) across the region. In addition, 18z observed soundings from LCH and SHV depict a steep low to mid-level lapse rate plume in place across this region. Though moderately unstable profiles are in place, deep layer shear for organization remains weak. This will likely favor pulse type thunderstorms with potential for locally strong to severe downburst winds. As this threat is expected to remain localized, a watch is unlikely. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30519408 30899274 30979122 30369098 29829127 29619199 29589310 29769411 30109438 30519408 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0613 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Aqua issued a water conservation request for residents in Marion to curb their nonessential water consumption by washing only full loads of laundry or dishes, taking shorter showers and avoiding landscape watering and vehicle washing. The Columbus Dispatch (Ohio), Sep 17, 2025

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 17 20:17:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery and regional radar mosaics show convective initiation underway across the TX Panhandle into western OK along a diffuse frontal zone. This activity will likely pose some hail/wind threat as it spreads northeast into a well-mixed, but modestly sheared environment. Further west across the High Plains, low-level winds are becoming easterly as anticipated by morning guidance. This increasing upslope flow regime will promote thunderstorm development by early evening as well as aid in convective organization via elongation of low/mid-level hodographs. Recent CAM guidance continues to depict the best signal for robust convection across southeast CO into adjacent portions of NM/OK/TX within the Slight risk corridor. See the previous discussion below and MCD #2091 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery and regional radar mosaics show convective initiation underway across the TX Panhandle into western OK along a diffuse frontal zone. This activity will likely pose some hail/wind threat as it spreads northeast into a well-mixed, but modestly sheared environment. Further west across the High Plains, low-level winds are becoming easterly as anticipated by morning guidance. This increasing upslope flow regime will promote thunderstorm development by early evening as well as aid in convective organization via elongation of low/mid-level hodographs. Recent CAM guidance continues to depict the best signal for robust convection across southeast CO into adjacent portions of NM/OK/TX within the Slight risk corridor. See the previous discussion below and MCD #2091 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery and regional radar mosaics show convective initiation underway across the TX Panhandle into western OK along a diffuse frontal zone. This activity will likely pose some hail/wind threat as it spreads northeast into a well-mixed, but modestly sheared environment. Further west across the High Plains, low-level winds are becoming easterly as anticipated by morning guidance. This increasing upslope flow regime will promote thunderstorm development by early evening as well as aid in convective organization via elongation of low/mid-level hodographs. Recent CAM guidance continues to depict the best signal for robust convection across southeast CO into adjacent portions of NM/OK/TX within the Slight risk corridor. See the previous discussion below and MCD #2091 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery and regional radar mosaics show convective initiation underway across the TX Panhandle into western OK along a diffuse frontal zone. This activity will likely pose some hail/wind threat as it spreads northeast into a well-mixed, but modestly sheared environment. Further west across the High Plains, low-level winds are becoming easterly as anticipated by morning guidance. This increasing upslope flow regime will promote thunderstorm development by early evening as well as aid in convective organization via elongation of low/mid-level hodographs. Recent CAM guidance continues to depict the best signal for robust convection across southeast CO into adjacent portions of NM/OK/TX within the Slight risk corridor. See the previous discussion below and MCD #2091 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery and regional radar mosaics show convective initiation underway across the TX Panhandle into western OK along a diffuse frontal zone. This activity will likely pose some hail/wind threat as it spreads northeast into a well-mixed, but modestly sheared environment. Further west across the High Plains, low-level winds are becoming easterly as anticipated by morning guidance. This increasing upslope flow regime will promote thunderstorm development by early evening as well as aid in convective organization via elongation of low/mid-level hodographs. Recent CAM guidance continues to depict the best signal for robust convection across southeast CO into adjacent portions of NM/OK/TX within the Slight risk corridor. See the previous discussion below and MCD #2091 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery and regional radar mosaics show convective initiation underway across the TX Panhandle into western OK along a diffuse frontal zone. This activity will likely pose some hail/wind threat as it spreads northeast into a well-mixed, but modestly sheared environment. Further west across the High Plains, low-level winds are becoming easterly as anticipated by morning guidance. This increasing upslope flow regime will promote thunderstorm development by early evening as well as aid in convective organization via elongation of low/mid-level hodographs. Recent CAM guidance continues to depict the best signal for robust convection across southeast CO into adjacent portions of NM/OK/TX within the Slight risk corridor. See the previous discussion below and MCD #2091 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery and regional radar mosaics show convective initiation underway across the TX Panhandle into western OK along a diffuse frontal zone. This activity will likely pose some hail/wind threat as it spreads northeast into a well-mixed, but modestly sheared environment. Further west across the High Plains, low-level winds are becoming easterly as anticipated by morning guidance. This increasing upslope flow regime will promote thunderstorm development by early evening as well as aid in convective organization via elongation of low/mid-level hodographs. Recent CAM guidance continues to depict the best signal for robust convection across southeast CO into adjacent portions of NM/OK/TX within the Slight risk corridor. See the previous discussion below and MCD #2091 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery and regional radar mosaics show convective initiation underway across the TX Panhandle into western OK along a diffuse frontal zone. This activity will likely pose some hail/wind threat as it spreads northeast into a well-mixed, but modestly sheared environment. Further west across the High Plains, low-level winds are becoming easterly as anticipated by morning guidance. This increasing upslope flow regime will promote thunderstorm development by early evening as well as aid in convective organization via elongation of low/mid-level hodographs. Recent CAM guidance continues to depict the best signal for robust convection across southeast CO into adjacent portions of NM/OK/TX within the Slight risk corridor. See the previous discussion below and MCD #2091 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery and regional radar mosaics show convective initiation underway across the TX Panhandle into western OK along a diffuse frontal zone. This activity will likely pose some hail/wind threat as it spreads northeast into a well-mixed, but modestly sheared environment. Further west across the High Plains, low-level winds are becoming easterly as anticipated by morning guidance. This increasing upslope flow regime will promote thunderstorm development by early evening as well as aid in convective organization via elongation of low/mid-level hodographs. Recent CAM guidance continues to depict the best signal for robust convection across southeast CO into adjacent portions of NM/OK/TX within the Slight risk corridor. See the previous discussion below and MCD #2091 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery and regional radar mosaics show convective initiation underway across the TX Panhandle into western OK along a diffuse frontal zone. This activity will likely pose some hail/wind threat as it spreads northeast into a well-mixed, but modestly sheared environment. Further west across the High Plains, low-level winds are becoming easterly as anticipated by morning guidance. This increasing upslope flow regime will promote thunderstorm development by early evening as well as aid in convective organization via elongation of low/mid-level hodographs. Recent CAM guidance continues to depict the best signal for robust convection across southeast CO into adjacent portions of NM/OK/TX within the Slight risk corridor. See the previous discussion below and MCD #2091 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery and regional radar mosaics show convective initiation underway across the TX Panhandle into western OK along a diffuse frontal zone. This activity will likely pose some hail/wind threat as it spreads northeast into a well-mixed, but modestly sheared environment. Further west across the High Plains, low-level winds are becoming easterly as anticipated by morning guidance. This increasing upslope flow regime will promote thunderstorm development by early evening as well as aid in convective organization via elongation of low/mid-level hodographs. Recent CAM guidance continues to depict the best signal for robust convection across southeast CO into adjacent portions of NM/OK/TX within the Slight risk corridor. See the previous discussion below and MCD #2091 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. Read more