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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED FROM OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI...AND INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible from late afternoon into tonight from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri and over small parts of adjacent states. ...Discussion... An upper trough will remain over much of the central and northern Plains, with cool midlevel temperatures extending as far south as northern TX. An upper disturbance will move across OK and KS during the day, pivoting into IA/MO/AR during the evening. Cooling aloft/height falls associated with this feature should aid daytime destabilization. At the surface, a weak boundary should extend from the TX Panhandle into northern OK, and into the eastern KS/western MO vicinity. Daytime heating will combine with the cool air aloft and a marginally moist boundary layer to produce MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Early day rain/storms may occur over KS beneath midlevel cold pocket, and some of this activity could eventually produce small hail. By late afternoon and as the low-level lapse rate plume is established, renewed development is expected from eastern KS into OK, with activity pushing into western MO and northwest AR through evening. Overall, deep layer shear will be marginal, however, strong high-level flow may support a greater chance of hail from the TX Panhandle into OK, while the coldest midlevel temperatures also support hail from eastern KS into MO. ..Jewell.. 09/18/2025 Read more

Warm and very dry conditions persisted across West Central Texas, with fire danger becoming a concern for many. Cooler temperatures arrived, but more rain was needed. Conditions remained decent, with cooler, cloudy mornings and clear days, lower nighttime temperatures, and an occasional sprinkle of rain. Wheat fields were plowed and ready for planting, but in some cases, it was too dry to plant. Topsoil moisture was better than expected in some areas, and several producers began planting wheat. The pecan crop was inconsistent depending on location. Cotton was maturing quickly, and sorghum harvest neared completion. Cotton was in poor shape in some areas due to the lack of moisture. Rangeland and pasture conditions declined due to a lack of moisture. Most forages had matured and gone to seed, and there was still plenty of grazing available for livestock. Livestock were in fair condition, but many producers were feeding hay. Cattle were still in good shape, but pastures were starting to turn brown. The cattle market remained active, with stocker steers selling steadily. Lighter-weight stocker steers were $4 to $5 higher per hundredweight, while some were $1 to $2 lower per hundredweight. Stocker heifers were steady to $2 higher. Feeder steers were $2 to $4 lower per hundredweight. Feeder heifers were steady to $4 lower per hundredweight. Packer cows were $2 higher per hundredweight. Prices for bulls, pairs and bred cows were steady. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sep 16, 2025 Area conditions remained dry overall in West Central, with a few localized showers dropping a half inch or less of rain. Some hay was being cut and baled. Field preparation continued for small grain planting. Cotton needed moisture. The corn harvest was complete, and sorghum harvest was starting as fields mature. Grasses and pasture forages had almost stopped growing due to hot, dry weather. Rangeland was still good after July rains. Livestock were in good condition as well. Packer cows and bulls both sold steady. Pairs and bred cows remained in good demand. AgriLife Today (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Sep 3, 2025

Hot and dry conditions persisted in Central Texas, with some cooler temperatures at night. The wildland fire threat increased daily. Warm-season forages showed visible drought stress. Pasture growth slowed significantly, and some producers reported early signs of dormancy in Bermuda grass stands. Weed pressure increased where the forage canopy was thin. Stock tanks were at favorable levels all summer. Hay was still being cut, and plenty of feed should be available this winter. Corn and sorghum harvests were expected to wrap up soon. Cotton bolls were opening and nearing harvest. Several small grain farmers started to prepare fields and seedbeds for planting, and some ranchers were planting winter forage for grazing. Second-crop corn silage looked good with little evidence of red stunt disease. Armyworms were present in some locations. Fly pressure remained moderate. Livestock were in good condition. The cattle market softened slightly over the past week. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sep 16, 2025 Hot temperatures prevailed, but a large part of Central Texas saw a few showers, ranging from 0.5-1.2 inches. Corn and sorghum harvests were beginning to wrap up, with record-setting corn yields reported. The corn harvest was slowed by storage and grain handling issues as some producers had more than doubled their grain production. Grain sorghum acres were low, but yields were high. Cotton harvest began on a limited basis, with above-average yields reported. There were some quality concerns with wet conditions and potential staining. Producers were hopeful that forecasted rain would extend pasture conditions into fall. Forage was being cut and baled, and many producers have large amounts of barn-stored hay. Pasture and range conditions looked good. Stock tank levels were full. Livestock were in good condition, with some producers still implementing supplemental feeding. Record cattle prices have many producers selling calves earlier than normal. AgriLife Today (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Sep 3, 2025

Hot and dry conditions persisted in Southwest Texas, but recent rains improved rangeland conditions. Daytime high temperatures averaged in the mid-90s, with mornings in the mid-60s. Soil moisture levels were declining. Cotton harvest was expected to begin soon, while other row crop harvests were finishing. Pasture and rangeland conditions remained good. Farmers were preparing for fall and winter crops. Winter wheat planting was likely to be delayed until November. Hay production was winding down, and producers were preparing for the fall season. Livestock prices remained steady to strong. The cool morning temperatures provided relief to heat and drought-stressed plants and livestock; however, grazing was still limited due to drought. Rams and bucks were being turned in for breeding season. Livestock and wildlife were in good condition. Supplemental feeding resumed in many locations due to limited available forage. Pecans continued to flesh out, and less desirable nuts were dropped. Walnut caterpillar activity was noted on pecans. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sep 16, 2025 Dry and very hot conditions in Southwest Texas were followed by a cold front, with gusty winds and rainfall averaging 1.6 inches. The moisture should improve rangeland conditions. Sorghum and corn harvests continued. A few producers were still baling their second cutting of hay. Pasture conditions continued to decline in drier areas, and rangeland showed signs of stress. Livestock and wildlife remained in fair to good condition. Livestock markets were steady to high. Whitetail deer activity tapered off due to the heat. The opening weekend of dove season saw good conditions overall. AgriLife Today (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Sep 3, 2025

Dry, hot weather continued in the Coastal Bend with temperatures in the upper 90s and no significant rainfall. Soil moisture was declining, though some areas saw forage growth from the previous week’s rain. Cotton harvest was nearly complete with good yields reported, though low commodity prices remained a concern. Some field preparation was underway for winter pastures. Rangeland and pasture conditions were mixed — there was some improvement where rain had fallen, but an overall decline with continued dryness. Supplemental hay feeding began in dry areas, and livestock water levels were becoming a concern. Livestock remained in good condition, with calves hitting the ground and doing well. Cattle prices remained strong, helping offset higher input costs. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sep 16, 2025 Hot, dry weather continued to deteriorate soil moisture and range and pasture conditions in the Coastal Bend. Scattered showers provided limited relief, briefly delaying cotton harvest in some areas. Rice, corn and sorghum harvests were almost complete with average to slightly above-average yields. Cotton saw above-average yields of 2-3.5 bales per acre. The gin yards were full and running around the clock. Haying had slowed due to drought, though recent showers may allow some regrowth. The quality of standing forages was declining. Livestock remained in generally good condition, but supplemental feeding was increasing. Fall calving started, and calf runs at sale barns were seasonally larger. Markets remained strong. AgriLife Today (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Sep 3, 2025

Conditions in South Texas the past week included seasonal and above-average temperatures, with some light to moderate rainfall and rain in the forecast. Topsoil and subsoil conditions remained very short in some areas. Falcon Lake levels remained extremely low. Cotton bolls opened, and harvest was underway. Bermuda grass hay fields were cut and baled. Vegetable growers continued to harvest okra and squash, and soil was being prepped for strawberries. The fall corn crop was progressing well, especially in areas where moisture was received. Citrus fruit continued to mature as producers monitored for potential pest and disease issues. A few late-planted sesame fields remained. Grain sorghum and corn yields were below average. Peanut crops continued to mature under irrigation, and digging was scheduled to begin in the coming weeks. Vegetable farmers were planting cabbage, parsley, and leafy greens, and preparing for carrots and onions. High temperatures impacted pasture and rangeland conditions, but conditions improved in areas that received rain. Rain was needed for fall forage planting and a possible final cutting of hay. Ranchers were culling cattle herds and selling calves at lighter weights, but prices remained high. Producers supplemented feed to help maintain animal health and performance. Local feed stores reported increased supplemental feed sales. Deer producers were supplementing with protein, corn and cottonseed. The hunting season began, with a strong presence of both white-wing and mourning doves reported in some areas. Turkeys and quail were notably abundant. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sep 16, 2025 South Texas weather conditions continued to be dry, breezy and hot with occasional light scattered showers. Surface and bottom soil conditions remained dry. Hay producers continued to cut and bale. Some vegetable growers were harvesting okra, summer squash and fall tomatoes. Other producers continued to prepare to plant fall vegetables and corn. The last grain sorghum fields were being harvested, with most showing signs of bird damage. Most cotton was harvested, and the sesame harvest continued. Yields were above average on both cotton and sesame crops. Citrus orchards continued to be irrigated with both flood and drip irrigation. Range and pasture conditions continued to deteriorate. Livestock and wildlife were in good condition overall with proper feeding and supplementation. Beef cattle prices remained high. Feed and hay were in great demand at a high cost. Wildlife managers reported a good fawn crop and quail numbers. Deer producers were supplementing extra and providing water to their ponds. AgriLife Today (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Sep 3, 2025

MD 2095 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613... FOR SOUTHEAST CO TO TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2095 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0928 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Areas affected...Southeast CO to TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613... Valid 180228Z - 180430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613 continues. SUMMARY...Strong-locally severe thunderstorms will continue along a corridor from southeast Colorado to the Texas Panhandle. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the primary concerns. DISCUSSION...Primary frontal zone continues to sag south across the central High Plains this evening, currently arcing from southwest KS-OK Panhandle-northeast NM. Ahead of this front, a convectively enhanced boundary extends across the TX Panhandle into western OK. Over the last few hours buoyancy has gradually decreased across much of the High Plains, partially due to nocturnal cooling, but also due to substantial convective overturning. Post-frontal convection should continue propagating southeast across southeast CO, but this activity is advancing through an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg. The more concentrated corridor of convection over the next few hours will likely be across the TX Panhandle, but this activity too may struggle within a limited-buoyancy regime. A new severe thunderstorm watch is not currently anticipated. ..Darrow.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 35150087 35790270 37000414 38330494 38400356 37210238 36070038 35150087 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E TCC TO 35 NW RTN TO 35 WSW COS. ..SPC..09/18/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-025-041-043-055-061-071-089-099-101-119-180340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CROWLEY EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO TELLER KSC129-180340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORTON NMC007-059-180340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX UNION Read more

WW 613 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 172055Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Southwest Kansas Northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially isolated severe storms including some supercells will continue to develop initially across southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico including Front Range areas and Raton Mesa. Bouts of large hail can be expected as the most probable hazard, with stronger winds also possible and perhaps a brief tornado risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Pueblo CO to 75 miles southwest of Dalhart TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/18/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-025-027-041-043-055-061-071-089-099-101-119-180240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CROWLEY CUSTER EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO TELLER KSC129-180240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORTON NMC007-021-033-037-047-059-180240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX HARDING MORA Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the south-central High Plains, with hail and localized severe gust potential. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered strong to severe cells with hail potential currently extend from the Colorado Springs area southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as easterly low-level winds veering to westerly aloft are supporting the cellular storm mode with longevity. Height falls with the weak upper trough will continue overnight, and southerly winds around 850 mb may support weak theta-e advection for a few hours this evening. Given substantial instability noted on the 00Z DDC sounding, an isolated hail threat may eventually develop from the west. Elsewhere, a cluster of storms persists over south-central KS near the OK border, and near a warm front. Isolated hail or wind may persist in this area as well, and perhaps affect the rest of south-central KS later this evening with marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the south-central High Plains, with hail and localized severe gust potential. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered strong to severe cells with hail potential currently extend from the Colorado Springs area southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as easterly low-level winds veering to westerly aloft are supporting the cellular storm mode with longevity. Height falls with the weak upper trough will continue overnight, and southerly winds around 850 mb may support weak theta-e advection for a few hours this evening. Given substantial instability noted on the 00Z DDC sounding, an isolated hail threat may eventually develop from the west. Elsewhere, a cluster of storms persists over south-central KS near the OK border, and near a warm front. Isolated hail or wind may persist in this area as well, and perhaps affect the rest of south-central KS later this evening with marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the south-central High Plains, with hail and localized severe gust potential. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered strong to severe cells with hail potential currently extend from the Colorado Springs area southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as easterly low-level winds veering to westerly aloft are supporting the cellular storm mode with longevity. Height falls with the weak upper trough will continue overnight, and southerly winds around 850 mb may support weak theta-e advection for a few hours this evening. Given substantial instability noted on the 00Z DDC sounding, an isolated hail threat may eventually develop from the west. Elsewhere, a cluster of storms persists over south-central KS near the OK border, and near a warm front. Isolated hail or wind may persist in this area as well, and perhaps affect the rest of south-central KS later this evening with marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the south-central High Plains, with hail and localized severe gust potential. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered strong to severe cells with hail potential currently extend from the Colorado Springs area southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as easterly low-level winds veering to westerly aloft are supporting the cellular storm mode with longevity. Height falls with the weak upper trough will continue overnight, and southerly winds around 850 mb may support weak theta-e advection for a few hours this evening. Given substantial instability noted on the 00Z DDC sounding, an isolated hail threat may eventually develop from the west. Elsewhere, a cluster of storms persists over south-central KS near the OK border, and near a warm front. Isolated hail or wind may persist in this area as well, and perhaps affect the rest of south-central KS later this evening with marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the south-central High Plains, with hail and localized severe gust potential. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered strong to severe cells with hail potential currently extend from the Colorado Springs area southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as easterly low-level winds veering to westerly aloft are supporting the cellular storm mode with longevity. Height falls with the weak upper trough will continue overnight, and southerly winds around 850 mb may support weak theta-e advection for a few hours this evening. Given substantial instability noted on the 00Z DDC sounding, an isolated hail threat may eventually develop from the west. Elsewhere, a cluster of storms persists over south-central KS near the OK border, and near a warm front. Isolated hail or wind may persist in this area as well, and perhaps affect the rest of south-central KS later this evening with marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the south-central High Plains, with hail and localized severe gust potential. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered strong to severe cells with hail potential currently extend from the Colorado Springs area southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as easterly low-level winds veering to westerly aloft are supporting the cellular storm mode with longevity. Height falls with the weak upper trough will continue overnight, and southerly winds around 850 mb may support weak theta-e advection for a few hours this evening. Given substantial instability noted on the 00Z DDC sounding, an isolated hail threat may eventually develop from the west. Elsewhere, a cluster of storms persists over south-central KS near the OK border, and near a warm front. Isolated hail or wind may persist in this area as well, and perhaps affect the rest of south-central KS later this evening with marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the south-central High Plains, with hail and localized severe gust potential. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered strong to severe cells with hail potential currently extend from the Colorado Springs area southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as easterly low-level winds veering to westerly aloft are supporting the cellular storm mode with longevity. Height falls with the weak upper trough will continue overnight, and southerly winds around 850 mb may support weak theta-e advection for a few hours this evening. Given substantial instability noted on the 00Z DDC sounding, an isolated hail threat may eventually develop from the west. Elsewhere, a cluster of storms persists over south-central KS near the OK border, and near a warm front. Isolated hail or wind may persist in this area as well, and perhaps affect the rest of south-central KS later this evening with marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the south-central High Plains, with hail and localized severe gust potential. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered strong to severe cells with hail potential currently extend from the Colorado Springs area southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as easterly low-level winds veering to westerly aloft are supporting the cellular storm mode with longevity. Height falls with the weak upper trough will continue overnight, and southerly winds around 850 mb may support weak theta-e advection for a few hours this evening. Given substantial instability noted on the 00Z DDC sounding, an isolated hail threat may eventually develop from the west. Elsewhere, a cluster of storms persists over south-central KS near the OK border, and near a warm front. Isolated hail or wind may persist in this area as well, and perhaps affect the rest of south-central KS later this evening with marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the south-central High Plains, with hail and localized severe gust potential. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered strong to severe cells with hail potential currently extend from the Colorado Springs area southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as easterly low-level winds veering to westerly aloft are supporting the cellular storm mode with longevity. Height falls with the weak upper trough will continue overnight, and southerly winds around 850 mb may support weak theta-e advection for a few hours this evening. Given substantial instability noted on the 00Z DDC sounding, an isolated hail threat may eventually develop from the west. Elsewhere, a cluster of storms persists over south-central KS near the OK border, and near a warm front. Isolated hail or wind may persist in this area as well, and perhaps affect the rest of south-central KS later this evening with marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 09/18/2025 Read more

MD 2094 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613... FOR SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM INTO THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 2094 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Areas affected...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into the western OK/TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613... Valid 172247Z - 180045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613 continues. SUMMARY...Hail and gusty winds remain possible with thunderstorms this evening. DISCUSSION...Upper trough is settling south across the central Rockies early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is digging southeast across CO, which appears to be influencing convection along the Front Range, south to the CO/NM border, just east of Raton. Strongest buoyancy extends across the OK Panhandle into central portions of the watch, and latest radar data suggests several robust updrafts are likely generating severe hail east of Raton. This activity will continue to propagate southeast along a frontal zone that arcs from north of Clayton NM-south of Guymon OK. Other more isolated activity should spread southeast off the Palmer Divide along the northern fringe of ww613. Hail and wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35240491 38640551 38630255 35230206 35240491 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more