Aggregator

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW UNO TO 10 WSW TBN TO 15 S JEF TO 25 NE COU TO 40 SSE IRK. WW 614 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190300Z. ..HALBERT..09/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC007-027-125-151-161-169-215-190300- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN CALLAWAY MARIES OSAGE PHELPS PULASKI TEXAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 614 SEVERE TSTM MO 182100Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...The influence of an upper trough and a warm/moist air mass that precedes it will allow for intensifying thunderstorms through late afternoon, with wind damage/some hail possible through early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Knob Noster MO to 55 miles south southeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2099 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614... FOR MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Areas affected...Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614... Valid 182303Z - 190100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated wind/hail can be expected with convection as it spreads east this evening. DISCUSSION...A well-defined short-wave trough is advancing east across NE/KS early this evening. In response to this short wave, a weak surface boundary is serving as the focus for a broken line of robust convection, currently extending from Livingston County MO-Barry County MO-Crawford County AR. This activity is propagating through a modestly buoyant corridor of instability characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated severe winds and marginally severe hail have been reported with these storms, but 0-6km shear is seasonally weak and 500mb flow is on the order of 20-25kt. As a result, gusty winds should be the primary threat with this frontal convection as it propagates toward the eastern edge of ww614. ..Darrow.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 36489407 39449427 39449201 36499192 36489407 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N FLP TO 35 SW TBN TO 40 NW TBN TO 25 WSW JEF TO 25 WNW COU TO 45 SSW IRK. ..HALBERT..09/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC007-019-027-029-051-067-089-105-125-131-135-151-153-161-169- 175-215-229-190140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN COLE DOUGLAS HOWARD LACLEDE MARIES MILLER MONITEAU OSAGE OZARK PHELPS PULASKI RANDOLPH TEXAS WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

154
ABPZ20 KNHC 182332
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of the Southern Tip of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms remain displaced well to the west of a
broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Although a tropical
depression is still likely to form during the next day or so, the
system is forecast to encounter progressively cooler waters and a
drier, stable airmass over the weekend, which will inhibit any
further development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves generally west-northwestward at 5
to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

MD 2099 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614... FOR MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Areas affected...Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614... Valid 182303Z - 190100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated wind/hail can be expected with convection as it spreads east this evening. DISCUSSION...A well-defined short-wave trough is advancing east across NE/KS early this evening. In response to this short wave, a weak surface boundary is serving as the focus for a broken line of robust convection, currently extending from Livingston County MO-Barry County MO-Crawford County AR. This activity is propagating through a modestly buoyant corridor of instability characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated severe winds and marginally severe hail have been reported with these storms, but 0-6km shear is seasonally weak and 500mb flow is on the order of 20-25kt. As a result, gusty winds should be the primary threat with this frontal convection as it propagates toward the eastern edge of ww614. ..Darrow.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 36489407 39449427 39449201 36499192 36489407 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW SZL TO 35 S SZL TO 5 WSW SZL TO 20 N SZL TO 35 N SZL TO 20 SW CDJ AND 20 ENE HRO TO 15 ENE SGF TO 30 SE SZL TO 10 E SZL TO 20 NNE SZL TO 20 SSE CDJ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2099 ..HALBERT..09/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC007-019-027-029-041-051-053-059-067-089-105-125-131-135-141- 151-153-159-161-169-175-195-215-225-229-190040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN CHARITON COLE COOPER DALLAS DOUGLAS HOWARD LACLEDE MARIES MILLER MONITEAU MORGAN OSAGE OZARK PETTIS PHELPS PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 614 SEVERE TSTM MO 182100Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...The influence of an upper trough and a warm/moist air mass that precedes it will allow for intensifying thunderstorms through late afternoon, with wind damage/some hail possible through early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Knob Noster MO to 55 miles south southeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Guyer Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 18 22:48:10 UTC 2025.

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW SZL TO 35 S SZL TO 5 WSW SZL TO 20 N SZL TO 35 N SZL TO 20 SW CDJ. ..HALBERT..09/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC007-009-015-019-027-029-033-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-067- 077-085-089-105-109-125-131-135-141-151-153-159-161-167-169-175- 185-195-209-213-215-225-229-182340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BARRY BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN CARROLL CEDAR CHARITON CHRISTIAN COLE COOPER DADE DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY HOWARD LACLEDE LAWRENCE MARIES MILLER MONITEAU MORGAN OSAGE OZARK PETTIS PHELPS POLK PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SALINE STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more