Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

878
ABPZ20 KNHC 190553
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms remain displaced to the west of a broad
area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Although a
tropical depression is still likely to form during the next day or
so, the system is forecast to encounter progressively cooler waters
and a drier, stable airmass over the weekend, which will inhibit any
further development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle portions
of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10
mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday with ridging across the eastern CONUS and the Rockies. A weak surface low will accompany this trough across the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending southwestward into southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. South of this front, a moist airmass will be present with moderate instability anticipated. A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Kansas on the nose of the low-level jet. As this cluster of storms moves east through the day, additional storms are possible in its wake (across Oklahoma, southern Kansas and the TX/OK Panhandles) where moderate instability and weak isentropic ascent remains. These storms may pose a threat for isolated hail or wind gusts. However, while this area poses the greatest threat, the overall threat for organized storms remains low given weak (less than 20 knots) mid-level flow and a lack of more focused ascent. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday with ridging across the eastern CONUS and the Rockies. A weak surface low will accompany this trough across the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending southwestward into southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. South of this front, a moist airmass will be present with moderate instability anticipated. A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Kansas on the nose of the low-level jet. As this cluster of storms moves east through the day, additional storms are possible in its wake (across Oklahoma, southern Kansas and the TX/OK Panhandles) where moderate instability and weak isentropic ascent remains. These storms may pose a threat for isolated hail or wind gusts. However, while this area poses the greatest threat, the overall threat for organized storms remains low given weak (less than 20 knots) mid-level flow and a lack of more focused ascent. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday with ridging across the eastern CONUS and the Rockies. A weak surface low will accompany this trough across the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending southwestward into southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. South of this front, a moist airmass will be present with moderate instability anticipated. A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Kansas on the nose of the low-level jet. As this cluster of storms moves east through the day, additional storms are possible in its wake (across Oklahoma, southern Kansas and the TX/OK Panhandles) where moderate instability and weak isentropic ascent remains. These storms may pose a threat for isolated hail or wind gusts. However, while this area poses the greatest threat, the overall threat for organized storms remains low given weak (less than 20 knots) mid-level flow and a lack of more focused ascent. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday with ridging across the eastern CONUS and the Rockies. A weak surface low will accompany this trough across the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending southwestward into southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. South of this front, a moist airmass will be present with moderate instability anticipated. A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Kansas on the nose of the low-level jet. As this cluster of storms moves east through the day, additional storms are possible in its wake (across Oklahoma, southern Kansas and the TX/OK Panhandles) where moderate instability and weak isentropic ascent remains. These storms may pose a threat for isolated hail or wind gusts. However, while this area poses the greatest threat, the overall threat for organized storms remains low given weak (less than 20 knots) mid-level flow and a lack of more focused ascent. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday with ridging across the eastern CONUS and the Rockies. A weak surface low will accompany this trough across the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending southwestward into southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. South of this front, a moist airmass will be present with moderate instability anticipated. A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Kansas on the nose of the low-level jet. As this cluster of storms moves east through the day, additional storms are possible in its wake (across Oklahoma, southern Kansas and the TX/OK Panhandles) where moderate instability and weak isentropic ascent remains. These storms may pose a threat for isolated hail or wind gusts. However, while this area poses the greatest threat, the overall threat for organized storms remains low given weak (less than 20 knots) mid-level flow and a lack of more focused ascent. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday with ridging across the eastern CONUS and the Rockies. A weak surface low will accompany this trough across the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending southwestward into southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. South of this front, a moist airmass will be present with moderate instability anticipated. A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Kansas on the nose of the low-level jet. As this cluster of storms moves east through the day, additional storms are possible in its wake (across Oklahoma, southern Kansas and the TX/OK Panhandles) where moderate instability and weak isentropic ascent remains. These storms may pose a threat for isolated hail or wind gusts. However, while this area poses the greatest threat, the overall threat for organized storms remains low given weak (less than 20 knots) mid-level flow and a lack of more focused ascent. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Little change to the larger-scale pattern is forecast through this period, with the stronger/more amplified flow remaining confined to the northern mid-latitudes. This includes a significant, slow moving trough with several embedded perturbations pivoting around a mid-level circulation digging through the Canadian Maritimes. It appears that this will support renewed offshore cyclogenesis, with trailing intrusions of cool air continuing to overspread the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Upstream, the exit region of a strong mid/upper jet may continue to nose across the northeastern Pacific through British Columbia coast vicinity. In between, and at lower latitudes, weaker split flow will persist across much of the U.S., with embedded troughing in one branch slowly shifting east of the northern Great Plains, while troughing in another remains quasi-stationary across the Southeast and offshore of the California coast. ...Central Great Plains... On the southwestern flank of the troughing slowly shifting toward/into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, a notable smaller-scale perturbation is generally forecast to continue digging southwest through south of the Black Hills vicinity, before turning eastward near/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley later today through tonight. It appears that this will be accompanied by moderate strengthening of northwesterly mid-level level flow (to 30-50 kt around 500 mb), near the southern periphery of a modest mid-level cold pool (-12 to -14 C around 500 mb). With sufficient destabilization, associated strengthening of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent may become at least conditionally supportive of supercells and perhaps an organized upscale growing cluster. Although there is notable spread among the various model output, a zone of strengthening differential surface heating, to the northeast of a modest developing lee surface low, may provide the focus for destabilization and thunderstorm initiation across parts of southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. By this evening, as convection progresses toward west central/central Kansas, forcing for ascent on the nose of a modestly strengthening southwesterly low-level jet (in excess of 30 kt around 850 mb) may maintain convective development and support an upscale growing, east-southeastward propagating cluster into the overnight hours. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Little change to the larger-scale pattern is forecast through this period, with the stronger/more amplified flow remaining confined to the northern mid-latitudes. This includes a significant, slow moving trough with several embedded perturbations pivoting around a mid-level circulation digging through the Canadian Maritimes. It appears that this will support renewed offshore cyclogenesis, with trailing intrusions of cool air continuing to overspread the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Upstream, the exit region of a strong mid/upper jet may continue to nose across the northeastern Pacific through British Columbia coast vicinity. In between, and at lower latitudes, weaker split flow will persist across much of the U.S., with embedded troughing in one branch slowly shifting east of the northern Great Plains, while troughing in another remains quasi-stationary across the Southeast and offshore of the California coast. ...Central Great Plains... On the southwestern flank of the troughing slowly shifting toward/into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, a notable smaller-scale perturbation is generally forecast to continue digging southwest through south of the Black Hills vicinity, before turning eastward near/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley later today through tonight. It appears that this will be accompanied by moderate strengthening of northwesterly mid-level level flow (to 30-50 kt around 500 mb), near the southern periphery of a modest mid-level cold pool (-12 to -14 C around 500 mb). With sufficient destabilization, associated strengthening of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent may become at least conditionally supportive of supercells and perhaps an organized upscale growing cluster. Although there is notable spread among the various model output, a zone of strengthening differential surface heating, to the northeast of a modest developing lee surface low, may provide the focus for destabilization and thunderstorm initiation across parts of southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. By this evening, as convection progresses toward west central/central Kansas, forcing for ascent on the nose of a modestly strengthening southwesterly low-level jet (in excess of 30 kt around 850 mb) may maintain convective development and support an upscale growing, east-southeastward propagating cluster into the overnight hours. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Little change to the larger-scale pattern is forecast through this period, with the stronger/more amplified flow remaining confined to the northern mid-latitudes. This includes a significant, slow moving trough with several embedded perturbations pivoting around a mid-level circulation digging through the Canadian Maritimes. It appears that this will support renewed offshore cyclogenesis, with trailing intrusions of cool air continuing to overspread the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Upstream, the exit region of a strong mid/upper jet may continue to nose across the northeastern Pacific through British Columbia coast vicinity. In between, and at lower latitudes, weaker split flow will persist across much of the U.S., with embedded troughing in one branch slowly shifting east of the northern Great Plains, while troughing in another remains quasi-stationary across the Southeast and offshore of the California coast. ...Central Great Plains... On the southwestern flank of the troughing slowly shifting toward/into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, a notable smaller-scale perturbation is generally forecast to continue digging southwest through south of the Black Hills vicinity, before turning eastward near/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley later today through tonight. It appears that this will be accompanied by moderate strengthening of northwesterly mid-level level flow (to 30-50 kt around 500 mb), near the southern periphery of a modest mid-level cold pool (-12 to -14 C around 500 mb). With sufficient destabilization, associated strengthening of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent may become at least conditionally supportive of supercells and perhaps an organized upscale growing cluster. Although there is notable spread among the various model output, a zone of strengthening differential surface heating, to the northeast of a modest developing lee surface low, may provide the focus for destabilization and thunderstorm initiation across parts of southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. By this evening, as convection progresses toward west central/central Kansas, forcing for ascent on the nose of a modestly strengthening southwesterly low-level jet (in excess of 30 kt around 850 mb) may maintain convective development and support an upscale growing, east-southeastward propagating cluster into the overnight hours. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Little change to the larger-scale pattern is forecast through this period, with the stronger/more amplified flow remaining confined to the northern mid-latitudes. This includes a significant, slow moving trough with several embedded perturbations pivoting around a mid-level circulation digging through the Canadian Maritimes. It appears that this will support renewed offshore cyclogenesis, with trailing intrusions of cool air continuing to overspread the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Upstream, the exit region of a strong mid/upper jet may continue to nose across the northeastern Pacific through British Columbia coast vicinity. In between, and at lower latitudes, weaker split flow will persist across much of the U.S., with embedded troughing in one branch slowly shifting east of the northern Great Plains, while troughing in another remains quasi-stationary across the Southeast and offshore of the California coast. ...Central Great Plains... On the southwestern flank of the troughing slowly shifting toward/into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, a notable smaller-scale perturbation is generally forecast to continue digging southwest through south of the Black Hills vicinity, before turning eastward near/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley later today through tonight. It appears that this will be accompanied by moderate strengthening of northwesterly mid-level level flow (to 30-50 kt around 500 mb), near the southern periphery of a modest mid-level cold pool (-12 to -14 C around 500 mb). With sufficient destabilization, associated strengthening of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent may become at least conditionally supportive of supercells and perhaps an organized upscale growing cluster. Although there is notable spread among the various model output, a zone of strengthening differential surface heating, to the northeast of a modest developing lee surface low, may provide the focus for destabilization and thunderstorm initiation across parts of southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. By this evening, as convection progresses toward west central/central Kansas, forcing for ascent on the nose of a modestly strengthening southwesterly low-level jet (in excess of 30 kt around 850 mb) may maintain convective development and support an upscale growing, east-southeastward propagating cluster into the overnight hours. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Little change to the larger-scale pattern is forecast through this period, with the stronger/more amplified flow remaining confined to the northern mid-latitudes. This includes a significant, slow moving trough with several embedded perturbations pivoting around a mid-level circulation digging through the Canadian Maritimes. It appears that this will support renewed offshore cyclogenesis, with trailing intrusions of cool air continuing to overspread the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Upstream, the exit region of a strong mid/upper jet may continue to nose across the northeastern Pacific through British Columbia coast vicinity. In between, and at lower latitudes, weaker split flow will persist across much of the U.S., with embedded troughing in one branch slowly shifting east of the northern Great Plains, while troughing in another remains quasi-stationary across the Southeast and offshore of the California coast. ...Central Great Plains... On the southwestern flank of the troughing slowly shifting toward/into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, a notable smaller-scale perturbation is generally forecast to continue digging southwest through south of the Black Hills vicinity, before turning eastward near/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley later today through tonight. It appears that this will be accompanied by moderate strengthening of northwesterly mid-level level flow (to 30-50 kt around 500 mb), near the southern periphery of a modest mid-level cold pool (-12 to -14 C around 500 mb). With sufficient destabilization, associated strengthening of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent may become at least conditionally supportive of supercells and perhaps an organized upscale growing cluster. Although there is notable spread among the various model output, a zone of strengthening differential surface heating, to the northeast of a modest developing lee surface low, may provide the focus for destabilization and thunderstorm initiation across parts of southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. By this evening, as convection progresses toward west central/central Kansas, forcing for ascent on the nose of a modestly strengthening southwesterly low-level jet (in excess of 30 kt around 850 mb) may maintain convective development and support an upscale growing, east-southeastward propagating cluster into the overnight hours. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Little change to the larger-scale pattern is forecast through this period, with the stronger/more amplified flow remaining confined to the northern mid-latitudes. This includes a significant, slow moving trough with several embedded perturbations pivoting around a mid-level circulation digging through the Canadian Maritimes. It appears that this will support renewed offshore cyclogenesis, with trailing intrusions of cool air continuing to overspread the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Upstream, the exit region of a strong mid/upper jet may continue to nose across the northeastern Pacific through British Columbia coast vicinity. In between, and at lower latitudes, weaker split flow will persist across much of the U.S., with embedded troughing in one branch slowly shifting east of the northern Great Plains, while troughing in another remains quasi-stationary across the Southeast and offshore of the California coast. ...Central Great Plains... On the southwestern flank of the troughing slowly shifting toward/into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, a notable smaller-scale perturbation is generally forecast to continue digging southwest through south of the Black Hills vicinity, before turning eastward near/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley later today through tonight. It appears that this will be accompanied by moderate strengthening of northwesterly mid-level level flow (to 30-50 kt around 500 mb), near the southern periphery of a modest mid-level cold pool (-12 to -14 C around 500 mb). With sufficient destabilization, associated strengthening of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent may become at least conditionally supportive of supercells and perhaps an organized upscale growing cluster. Although there is notable spread among the various model output, a zone of strengthening differential surface heating, to the northeast of a modest developing lee surface low, may provide the focus for destabilization and thunderstorm initiation across parts of southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. By this evening, as convection progresses toward west central/central Kansas, forcing for ascent on the nose of a modestly strengthening southwesterly low-level jet (in excess of 30 kt around 850 mb) may maintain convective development and support an upscale growing, east-southeastward propagating cluster into the overnight hours. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 09/19/2025 Read more

MD 2100 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614... FOR MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0843 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Areas affected...Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614... Valid 190143Z - 190315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat is decreasing across Missouri this evening. Even so, a few gusts remain possible for the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Robust frontal convection that spread across western into central MO has shown significant weakening over the last hour. This activity has overturned the primary corridor of instability and only a narrow zone of roughly 500 J/kg MLCAPE exists along the eastern fringes of ww614. 00z sounding from SGF exhibits a very stable rain-cooled profile, and moisture/instability is considerably less near the MO/IL border. For these reasons current weakening trends are expected to continue and a new watch will not be issued. ..Darrow.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 36809233 38419223 39599269 39839196 38829132 36819154 36809233 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW UNO TO 10 WSW TBN TO 15 S JEF TO 25 NE COU TO 40 SSE IRK. WW 614 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190300Z. ..HALBERT..09/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC007-027-125-151-161-169-215-190300- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN CALLAWAY MARIES OSAGE PHELPS PULASKI TEXAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 614 SEVERE TSTM MO 182100Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...The influence of an upper trough and a warm/moist air mass that precedes it will allow for intensifying thunderstorms through late afternoon, with wind damage/some hail possible through early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Knob Noster MO to 55 miles south southeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Guyer Read more