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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A complex, split-flow, low-predictability upper pattern will exist early next week and eventually evolve into a closed upper low across the Midwest by the end of the week. The operational ECMWF and GFS have significantly different evolution of the upper pattern. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble mean look very similar through much of the extended forecast. Therefore, the operational GFS will be treated as an outlier for this outlook cycle with an implied preference for the ECMWF/EPS/GEFS. ...Day 4/Monday - TX/OK Panhandles into western Kansas and western Oklahoma... ECMWF forecast soundings on Monday show a favorable environment featuring moderate to strong instability and moderate to strong shear as a 40+ knot mid-level jet ejects across the TX Panhandle and into Oklahoma. The primary trough will remain across the central Rockies with only weak height falls across the Plains. However, a strengthening low-level jet ahead of this trough may support thunderstorm potential within this favorable zone. Relatively weak synoptic support and lower predictability within the split-flow regime precludes 15% probabilities at this time, but probabilities may need to be included later, particularly if confidence in the location and coverage of storms across portions of OK/KS and the TX Panhandle increases. ...Day 5 and Beyond... If a closed upper-low develops (as forecast by the GEFS and EPS mean), some marginal severe weather concern will likely accompany the low as it drifts east. No specific periods of greater severe weather threat are apparent at this time, and given the slow forward speed of the closed low, any severe weather threat will likely remain marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A complex, split-flow, low-predictability upper pattern will exist early next week and eventually evolve into a closed upper low across the Midwest by the end of the week. The operational ECMWF and GFS have significantly different evolution of the upper pattern. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble mean look very similar through much of the extended forecast. Therefore, the operational GFS will be treated as an outlier for this outlook cycle with an implied preference for the ECMWF/EPS/GEFS. ...Day 4/Monday - TX/OK Panhandles into western Kansas and western Oklahoma... ECMWF forecast soundings on Monday show a favorable environment featuring moderate to strong instability and moderate to strong shear as a 40+ knot mid-level jet ejects across the TX Panhandle and into Oklahoma. The primary trough will remain across the central Rockies with only weak height falls across the Plains. However, a strengthening low-level jet ahead of this trough may support thunderstorm potential within this favorable zone. Relatively weak synoptic support and lower predictability within the split-flow regime precludes 15% probabilities at this time, but probabilities may need to be included later, particularly if confidence in the location and coverage of storms across portions of OK/KS and the TX Panhandle increases. ...Day 5 and Beyond... If a closed upper-low develops (as forecast by the GEFS and EPS mean), some marginal severe weather concern will likely accompany the low as it drifts east. No specific periods of greater severe weather threat are apparent at this time, and given the slow forward speed of the closed low, any severe weather threat will likely remain marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A complex, split-flow, low-predictability upper pattern will exist early next week and eventually evolve into a closed upper low across the Midwest by the end of the week. The operational ECMWF and GFS have significantly different evolution of the upper pattern. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble mean look very similar through much of the extended forecast. Therefore, the operational GFS will be treated as an outlier for this outlook cycle with an implied preference for the ECMWF/EPS/GEFS. ...Day 4/Monday - TX/OK Panhandles into western Kansas and western Oklahoma... ECMWF forecast soundings on Monday show a favorable environment featuring moderate to strong instability and moderate to strong shear as a 40+ knot mid-level jet ejects across the TX Panhandle and into Oklahoma. The primary trough will remain across the central Rockies with only weak height falls across the Plains. However, a strengthening low-level jet ahead of this trough may support thunderstorm potential within this favorable zone. Relatively weak synoptic support and lower predictability within the split-flow regime precludes 15% probabilities at this time, but probabilities may need to be included later, particularly if confidence in the location and coverage of storms across portions of OK/KS and the TX Panhandle increases. ...Day 5 and Beyond... If a closed upper-low develops (as forecast by the GEFS and EPS mean), some marginal severe weather concern will likely accompany the low as it drifts east. No specific periods of greater severe weather threat are apparent at this time, and given the slow forward speed of the closed low, any severe weather threat will likely remain marginal. Read more

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2025 857 FONT12 KNHC 190846 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) X(23) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 19 2025 859 WTNT42 KNHC 190846 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 AM AST Fri Sep 19 2025 Gabrielle's low-level center is located near the western edge of an area of deep convection that has now persisted since late yesterday afternoon. While the overall convective structure is gradually improving, the change hasn't been enough to deviate from a current intensity of 45 kt. UW-CIMSS SATCON, with a value of 42 kt, is currently the closest satellite intensity estimate. The storm is maintaining a west-northwestward heading of 300 degrees at 10 kt, with the subtropical ridge located to its north. A general pattern of troughing is expected to persist near the southeastern U.S. coast and far western Atlantic for the next several days, which should cause Gabrielle to recurve around the western periphery of the ridge over the next 4 days. There has been further tightening of the track guidance during this period, including a convergence of the HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean, and no significant adjustments were required for this updated track forecast. The reliable track models now show Gabrielle's center passing at least 140 n mi east of Bermuda in about 3 days. However, interests on the island should continue to monitor Gabrielle's progress since NHC's average track error at 3 days is about 90 n mi, and hazards can extend well away from the center. There is currently a 20-25 percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds occurring on Bermuda. The moderate westerly shear currently affecting Gabrielle is forecast to gradually lessen below 10 kt by 36 hours. This should begin to mitigate the effects of surrounding dry air and allow for gradual strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward, particularly during the first 3 days, to trend toward the latest IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and Gabrielle is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. The forecast peak intensity on day 4 is unchanged. By day 5, the onset of significantly stronger shear and cooler waters should induce some weakening. At the moment, there is significant uncertainty about when Gabrielle might become extratropical and how that would affect the cyclone's intensity. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Interests on Bermuda should monitor Gabrielle's forecasts since it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential wind and rainfall impacts. 2. Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda tonight and build through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 21.9N 54.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 22.6N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 23.9N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 25.4N 59.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 27.1N 60.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 28.9N 61.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 31.0N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 35.9N 56.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 39.8N 46.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 19 2025 855 WTNT32 KNHC 190846 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 AM AST Fri Sep 19 2025 ...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 54.8W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 54.8 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a north-northwestward motion by Saturday night and northward motion by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Gabrielle is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda tonight and build through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 19 the center of Gabrielle was located near 21.9, -54.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2025 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190845 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 54.8W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....315NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 54.8W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 54.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.6N 56.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.9N 57.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.4N 59.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.1N 60.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.9N 61.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.0N 61.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 35.9N 56.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 39.8N 46.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 220SW 150NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 54.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected from the Great Lakes to the central Plains on Sunday. Severe weather potential remains uncertain. ...Synopsis... The overall mid-level pattern will feature a trough across the central CONUS with a ridge to the west and east. This pattern will become more zonal through the period with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs extending from the East Coast to the Pacific Northwest. While the overall pattern remains consistent between guidance, the low-amplitude and progressive nature of the pattern will lead to considerable uncertainty about the timing and amplitude of the mid-level shortwave troughs. ...Ohio Valley... Within the overall mid-level trough across the Upper Midwest, a secondary positively tilted trough is forecast to move from southern Canada and into the Upper Midwest and eventually take on a more neutral tilt. The strength of this trough will have significant implications on the overall threat across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. A stronger solution, such as the ECMWF, would result in a more pronounced surface low and a trough/cold front across the Ohio Valley. In this scenario, instability and shear would support some severe weather potential Sunday afternoon/evening. Some guidance, such as the GFS, has a less amplified mid-level shortwave trough and minimal surface reflection. This GFS solution is much less favorable for severe weather potential across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added at this time, but may be needed in later outlooks. ...Central Plains... A moist airmass is expected across the Plains on Sunday with moderate instability expected by Sunday afternoon. Overall forcing will be relatively weak, but an uncapped airmass with weak height falls will likely support scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be quite weak (15 to 20 knots) and therefore, organized severe weather potential should remain mostly low. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected from the Great Lakes to the central Plains on Sunday. Severe weather potential remains uncertain. ...Synopsis... The overall mid-level pattern will feature a trough across the central CONUS with a ridge to the west and east. This pattern will become more zonal through the period with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs extending from the East Coast to the Pacific Northwest. While the overall pattern remains consistent between guidance, the low-amplitude and progressive nature of the pattern will lead to considerable uncertainty about the timing and amplitude of the mid-level shortwave troughs. ...Ohio Valley... Within the overall mid-level trough across the Upper Midwest, a secondary positively tilted trough is forecast to move from southern Canada and into the Upper Midwest and eventually take on a more neutral tilt. The strength of this trough will have significant implications on the overall threat across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. A stronger solution, such as the ECMWF, would result in a more pronounced surface low and a trough/cold front across the Ohio Valley. In this scenario, instability and shear would support some severe weather potential Sunday afternoon/evening. Some guidance, such as the GFS, has a less amplified mid-level shortwave trough and minimal surface reflection. This GFS solution is much less favorable for severe weather potential across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added at this time, but may be needed in later outlooks. ...Central Plains... A moist airmass is expected across the Plains on Sunday with moderate instability expected by Sunday afternoon. Overall forcing will be relatively weak, but an uncapped airmass with weak height falls will likely support scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be quite weak (15 to 20 knots) and therefore, organized severe weather potential should remain mostly low. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected from the Great Lakes to the central Plains on Sunday. Severe weather potential remains uncertain. ...Synopsis... The overall mid-level pattern will feature a trough across the central CONUS with a ridge to the west and east. This pattern will become more zonal through the period with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs extending from the East Coast to the Pacific Northwest. While the overall pattern remains consistent between guidance, the low-amplitude and progressive nature of the pattern will lead to considerable uncertainty about the timing and amplitude of the mid-level shortwave troughs. ...Ohio Valley... Within the overall mid-level trough across the Upper Midwest, a secondary positively tilted trough is forecast to move from southern Canada and into the Upper Midwest and eventually take on a more neutral tilt. The strength of this trough will have significant implications on the overall threat across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. A stronger solution, such as the ECMWF, would result in a more pronounced surface low and a trough/cold front across the Ohio Valley. In this scenario, instability and shear would support some severe weather potential Sunday afternoon/evening. Some guidance, such as the GFS, has a less amplified mid-level shortwave trough and minimal surface reflection. This GFS solution is much less favorable for severe weather potential across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added at this time, but may be needed in later outlooks. ...Central Plains... A moist airmass is expected across the Plains on Sunday with moderate instability expected by Sunday afternoon. Overall forcing will be relatively weak, but an uncapped airmass with weak height falls will likely support scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be quite weak (15 to 20 knots) and therefore, organized severe weather potential should remain mostly low. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected from the Great Lakes to the central Plains on Sunday. Severe weather potential remains uncertain. ...Synopsis... The overall mid-level pattern will feature a trough across the central CONUS with a ridge to the west and east. This pattern will become more zonal through the period with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs extending from the East Coast to the Pacific Northwest. While the overall pattern remains consistent between guidance, the low-amplitude and progressive nature of the pattern will lead to considerable uncertainty about the timing and amplitude of the mid-level shortwave troughs. ...Ohio Valley... Within the overall mid-level trough across the Upper Midwest, a secondary positively tilted trough is forecast to move from southern Canada and into the Upper Midwest and eventually take on a more neutral tilt. The strength of this trough will have significant implications on the overall threat across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. A stronger solution, such as the ECMWF, would result in a more pronounced surface low and a trough/cold front across the Ohio Valley. In this scenario, instability and shear would support some severe weather potential Sunday afternoon/evening. Some guidance, such as the GFS, has a less amplified mid-level shortwave trough and minimal surface reflection. This GFS solution is much less favorable for severe weather potential across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added at this time, but may be needed in later outlooks. ...Central Plains... A moist airmass is expected across the Plains on Sunday with moderate instability expected by Sunday afternoon. Overall forcing will be relatively weak, but an uncapped airmass with weak height falls will likely support scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be quite weak (15 to 20 knots) and therefore, organized severe weather potential should remain mostly low. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected from the Great Lakes to the central Plains on Sunday. Severe weather potential remains uncertain. ...Synopsis... The overall mid-level pattern will feature a trough across the central CONUS with a ridge to the west and east. This pattern will become more zonal through the period with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs extending from the East Coast to the Pacific Northwest. While the overall pattern remains consistent between guidance, the low-amplitude and progressive nature of the pattern will lead to considerable uncertainty about the timing and amplitude of the mid-level shortwave troughs. ...Ohio Valley... Within the overall mid-level trough across the Upper Midwest, a secondary positively tilted trough is forecast to move from southern Canada and into the Upper Midwest and eventually take on a more neutral tilt. The strength of this trough will have significant implications on the overall threat across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. A stronger solution, such as the ECMWF, would result in a more pronounced surface low and a trough/cold front across the Ohio Valley. In this scenario, instability and shear would support some severe weather potential Sunday afternoon/evening. Some guidance, such as the GFS, has a less amplified mid-level shortwave trough and minimal surface reflection. This GFS solution is much less favorable for severe weather potential across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added at this time, but may be needed in later outlooks. ...Central Plains... A moist airmass is expected across the Plains on Sunday with moderate instability expected by Sunday afternoon. Overall forcing will be relatively weak, but an uncapped airmass with weak height falls will likely support scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be quite weak (15 to 20 knots) and therefore, organized severe weather potential should remain mostly low. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected from the Great Lakes to the central Plains on Sunday. Severe weather potential remains uncertain. ...Synopsis... The overall mid-level pattern will feature a trough across the central CONUS with a ridge to the west and east. This pattern will become more zonal through the period with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs extending from the East Coast to the Pacific Northwest. While the overall pattern remains consistent between guidance, the low-amplitude and progressive nature of the pattern will lead to considerable uncertainty about the timing and amplitude of the mid-level shortwave troughs. ...Ohio Valley... Within the overall mid-level trough across the Upper Midwest, a secondary positively tilted trough is forecast to move from southern Canada and into the Upper Midwest and eventually take on a more neutral tilt. The strength of this trough will have significant implications on the overall threat across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. A stronger solution, such as the ECMWF, would result in a more pronounced surface low and a trough/cold front across the Ohio Valley. In this scenario, instability and shear would support some severe weather potential Sunday afternoon/evening. Some guidance, such as the GFS, has a less amplified mid-level shortwave trough and minimal surface reflection. This GFS solution is much less favorable for severe weather potential across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added at this time, but may be needed in later outlooks. ...Central Plains... A moist airmass is expected across the Plains on Sunday with moderate instability expected by Sunday afternoon. Overall forcing will be relatively weak, but an uncapped airmass with weak height falls will likely support scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be quite weak (15 to 20 knots) and therefore, organized severe weather potential should remain mostly low. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast across portions of the northern Cascades as a mid-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Otherwise, generally weak surface winds across the U.S. and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected will diminish any widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Cascades... Ridging and an intensifying height gradient aloft from an approaching mid-level trough will result in some downslope westerly surface winds through the Cascade gaps. These winds are expected to reach 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity values as low as 10-15%. With ERCs hovering around the 80th annual percentile, and some additional curing of fuels expected on Friday, at least Elevated fire-weather highlights are warranted at this time. ...Southern Cascades... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists Saturday evening across portions of the Oregon Cascades. However, precipitable water content at or exceeding 1 inch, slow storm motions, low buoyancy, and meager fuels will limit the overall threat of lightning-based ignitions. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast across portions of the northern Cascades as a mid-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Otherwise, generally weak surface winds across the U.S. and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected will diminish any widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Cascades... Ridging and an intensifying height gradient aloft from an approaching mid-level trough will result in some downslope westerly surface winds through the Cascade gaps. These winds are expected to reach 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity values as low as 10-15%. With ERCs hovering around the 80th annual percentile, and some additional curing of fuels expected on Friday, at least Elevated fire-weather highlights are warranted at this time. ...Southern Cascades... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists Saturday evening across portions of the Oregon Cascades. However, precipitable water content at or exceeding 1 inch, slow storm motions, low buoyancy, and meager fuels will limit the overall threat of lightning-based ignitions. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast across portions of the northern Cascades as a mid-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Otherwise, generally weak surface winds across the U.S. and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected will diminish any widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Cascades... Ridging and an intensifying height gradient aloft from an approaching mid-level trough will result in some downslope westerly surface winds through the Cascade gaps. These winds are expected to reach 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity values as low as 10-15%. With ERCs hovering around the 80th annual percentile, and some additional curing of fuels expected on Friday, at least Elevated fire-weather highlights are warranted at this time. ...Southern Cascades... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists Saturday evening across portions of the Oregon Cascades. However, precipitable water content at or exceeding 1 inch, slow storm motions, low buoyancy, and meager fuels will limit the overall threat of lightning-based ignitions. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast across portions of the northern Cascades as a mid-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Otherwise, generally weak surface winds across the U.S. and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected will diminish any widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Cascades... Ridging and an intensifying height gradient aloft from an approaching mid-level trough will result in some downslope westerly surface winds through the Cascade gaps. These winds are expected to reach 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity values as low as 10-15%. With ERCs hovering around the 80th annual percentile, and some additional curing of fuels expected on Friday, at least Elevated fire-weather highlights are warranted at this time. ...Southern Cascades... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists Saturday evening across portions of the Oregon Cascades. However, precipitable water content at or exceeding 1 inch, slow storm motions, low buoyancy, and meager fuels will limit the overall threat of lightning-based ignitions. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast across portions of the northern Cascades as a mid-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Otherwise, generally weak surface winds across the U.S. and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected will diminish any widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Cascades... Ridging and an intensifying height gradient aloft from an approaching mid-level trough will result in some downslope westerly surface winds through the Cascade gaps. These winds are expected to reach 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity values as low as 10-15%. With ERCs hovering around the 80th annual percentile, and some additional curing of fuels expected on Friday, at least Elevated fire-weather highlights are warranted at this time. ...Southern Cascades... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists Saturday evening across portions of the Oregon Cascades. However, precipitable water content at or exceeding 1 inch, slow storm motions, low buoyancy, and meager fuels will limit the overall threat of lightning-based ignitions. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more