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WW 0520 Status Updates
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WW 0520 Status Updates
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WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DNV TO 30 SSW VPZ TO 30 NW BEH. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC007-073-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DNV TO 30 SSW VPZ TO 30 NW BEH. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC007-073-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DNV TO 30 SSW VPZ TO 30 NW BEH. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC007-073-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DNV TO 30 SSW VPZ TO 30 NW BEH. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC007-073-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0519 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 520 SEVERE TSTM IN MI LM 162150Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 550 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently affecting northeast Illinois will track eastward across the watch area through the early evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles south of South Bend IN to 35 miles north northwest of Kalamazoo MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517...WW 518...WW 519... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1692 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1692 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Central and southwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162229Z - 170000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along and to the immediate cool side of the front is expected through late evening. Isolated downburst winds and large hail may occur, but limited storm organization suggests a watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 90s along a stalled front across central/southwest KS, where strong buoyancy (MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition coincide. Ascent atop the frontal surface should support scattered thunderstorms through late evening, where steep midlevel lapse rates will favor some potential for isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts. However, storm intensity/duration should both be limited by relatively weak vertical shear (only modest enhancement to low-level shear on the cool side of the front). Thus, a watch will likely not be needed. ..Thompson/Hart.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 39129825 39099780 38889759 38729775 38649830 38289934 37530017 37650034 37900036 38270022 38559987 38949907 39129825 Read more

MD 1695 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MICHIGAN...NORTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1695 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Michigan...northeastern Indiana...northwestern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162343Z - 170115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of strong to severe wind may linger downstream of WW520. Overall, the threat is likely to diminish and downstream watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...A line of storms moving across northern Indiana has shown signs of weakening over the last hour. A couple of reports around 40-55 mph were noted earlier. The downstream air mass remains unstable but deep layer shear is overall marginal. CAM guidance generally suggests this line will continue to weaken with loss of daytime heating. A downstream watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 41668612 42088564 42238461 42098405 41728360 41428349 40978379 40738393 40568402 40308470 40298527 40598590 40688609 41668612 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1694 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1694 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...southern Illinois...southern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162328Z - 170030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk for severe wind will continue through the evening. DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues eastward across southern Illinois and southern Indiana, with occasional stronger segments producing occasional gusts 40-50 mph. This is ongoing within a very unstable air mass, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg. However, deep layer shear for organization remains weak. Occasional severe outflow winds will be possible. However, the threat is likely to remain too localized for watch issuance. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38838905 39388821 40108715 40078619 39698588 38798606 38288678 38108745 38208845 38408909 38838905 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1693 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 519... FOR EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1693 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and extreme southeast Wyoming Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519... Valid 162301Z - 170000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms will persist into this evening, with the more favorable corridor for storm clustering with hail/wind into southeast Colorado. DISCUSSION...Scattered severe storms are ongoing across eastern CO within the upslope flow regime on the cool side of the synoptic front from western KS into the OK Panhandle and extreme northeast NM. Surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to lower 80s with mid-upper 50s dewpoints, contributing to MUCAPE near and above 2000 J/kg. Midlevel flow is a little stronger with northward extent, but easterly low-level flow is resulting in sufficient deep-layer shear to maintain the potential for supercells. Stronger surface heating will be maintained into southeast CO in advance of storms moving east of the higher terrain, which is where the greater potential for storm clustering with hail/wind will reside. ..Thompson.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 37720512 38410538 39340484 40070480 40960541 41300530 41340473 40800372 40320291 39290284 38240276 37490271 37220275 37070310 37080381 37200444 37720512 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 520 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE LAF TO 15 SSE SBN TO 20 ESE BEH TO 10 W JXN. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 520 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC017-039-049-085-087-099-113-170040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS ELKHART FULTON KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE MARSHALL NOBLE MIC023-027-149-170040- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANCH CASS ST. JOSEPH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 520 SEVERE TSTM IN MI LM 162150Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 550 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently affecting northeast Illinois will track eastward across the watch area through the early evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles south of South Bend IN to 35 miles north northwest of Kalamazoo MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517...WW 518...WW 519... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 162322
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93):
Surface and radar observations indicate that a westward-moving broad
area of low pressure continues to be located near the coast of the
western part of the Florida Panhandle. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and located south to
southwest of the center. This system is forecast to continue moving
westward across the northern portion of the Gulf tonight, and is
expected to reach the Louisiana coast by Thursday. If this system
moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf
appear generally favorable for additional development, and a
tropical depression could form over the next day or so before the
system moves fully inland by the end of the week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida tonight and continuing for
portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through Friday. For
additional information, please refer to products issued by the
Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

071
ABPZ20 KNHC 162309
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

MD 1691 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1691 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Northern Missouri into extreme northeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162149Z - 162315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along a stalled boundary, with the potential for isolated strong-severe gusts and marginally severe hail. Limited magnitude and duration of the threat suggests that a watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway immediately east of Kansas City, with other deepening cumulus along a stalled boundary near I-70. Surface temperatures in the low 90s with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s have largely eliminated convective inhibition and additional thunderstorm development is probable along the boundary/convergence zone the next couple of hours. This corridor is along the southern fringe of 25-30 kt midlevel flow, and deep-layer vertical shear is likewise modest and largely confined to the immediate cool side of the boundary. Still, large buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg) will support strong updrafts, while precipitation loading and downdraft potential will support the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. The overall severe threat is expected to remain marginal given limited storm organization/duration, and a watch appears unlikely. ..Thompson/Hart.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39039196 39159282 39169356 39139451 38979628 39009667 39279674 39429639 39619492 39689425 39689336 39649291 39579231 39529216 39449195 39279181 39039196 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DNV TO 30 SSW VPZ TO 30 NW BEH. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC007-073-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DNV TO 30 SSW VPZ TO 30 NW BEH. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC007-073-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 518 SEVERE TSTM IL IN LM 161735Z - 170100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 518 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Far Northwest Indiana Lake Michigan * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop in a north-south band and move east across the Watch. A couple of the stronger thunderstorms may acquire transient supercell characteristics. Scattered damaging gusts are the primary hazard, but an isolated risk for large hail will accompany the stronger storms and a tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Rockford IL to 20 miles south southeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Smith Read more