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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

A Massac County farmer didn’t recall any rain on his fields since July 4, apart from one one-inch rain, and the crop yields were lower than normal. The non-irrigated early beans were about 10 to 15 bushels below normal. The earliest corn yield was in the low to mid-20s. The farmer preferred the moisture to be about 18% to 19% before he really started shelling corn, and it’s drying quickly. Early planted crops were faring better than late planted ones from what he has heard from his neighbors. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Sep 18, 2025

MD 2098 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Areas affected...Parts of Missouri and far southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181949Z - 182145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in intensity and coverage while spreading/developing eastward this afternoon into the evening, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail. It is unclear if a watch will be needed, though convective and environmental trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Within the base of a vertically stacked cyclone over the northern Plains, water-vapor imagery indicates a compact shortwave trough and accompanying MCV moving east-northeastward across eastern KS. The leading edge of associated midlevel height falls/large-scale ascent -- demarcated by a shallow convective band moving across eastern KS -- will continue spreading east-northeastward across western MO through the afternoon. Here, differential heating amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints along the eastern edge of the convective band and related cloud debris will promote a gradual increase in thunderstorms (aided by the glancing large-scale ascent). Moderate pre-convective surface-based buoyancy and strengthening midlevel southwesterlies peripheral to the shortwave trough (around 30 kt of effective shear) will support loosely organized cells/clusters. Initial cellular/discrete storms will pose a risk of marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts. However, the parallel orientation of the deep-layer flow/shear to the axis of low/mid-level forcing may favor localized upscale growth with time, leading to primarily a damaging-wind risk. Given the somewhat marginal deep-layer flow/shear, it is unclear if a watch will be needed, though convective and environmental trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 37449483 38149477 39089438 39759375 40099310 40109239 39819204 38509210 37229247 36749298 36519370 36579413 36789444 37449483 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0614 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 18 20:46:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2097 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEVADA
Mesoscale Discussion 2097 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern California...southwestern Arizona...southern Nevada Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181848Z - 182115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few stronger thunderstorms may produce localized damaging wind and small hail this afternoon. DISCUSSION...An extremely unseasonably moist air mass is in place across portions of southern California into southern Arizona as the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continue to move inland. Dew points are in the mid 60s to 70s across the California and Arizona low deserts (with a dew point of 76 F noted in the observation from Yuma, AZ). A morning band of convection continues northward across southern Nevada, with some increase in intensity over the last hour owing to daytime heating, with around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE noted in surface objective analysis from the RAP. Additional activity has begun to develop south of this wave across the Mexico border and into southern Arizona/California. In addition to the unseasonably moist air mass, at least some weak shear for organization (25-30 kts) is present across the deserts. This will support potential for a few stronger storms and transient supercell structures with potential for damaging wind and small hail. Overall, this risk appears to be fairly localized and as such a watch is unlikely. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... LAT...LON 31871311 32831269 33521263 33841269 34081274 34441289 34701304 35361361 35411374 35541400 35591423 35581503 35521563 35451604 35301639 35071662 34841658 34481652 34301649 34081645 33841639 33561633 33331627 33151623 32851615 32641612 32541604 32501599 32501599 31871311 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. The primary adjustment was an eastward expansion of 5% wind/hail probabilities into northwest AR where pulse convection is developing within a very buoyant (though weakly sheared) environment. Similar thermodynamic/kinematic conditions have yielded sporadic wind/hail reports in recent days, so at least a low-end severe threat is anticipated through early evening (see MCD #2096 for additional details). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. Convection is beginning to deepen across northeast OK, far eastern KS, and far southwest MO, which is expected to increase in coverage and intensity within the Slight risk area through the evening based on recent environmental data and CAM solutions. Further west, consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across eastern TX into western OK; however, surface convergence along a diffuse front is gradually increasing with an attendant uptick in mid-level cumulus. Forecast soundings and a couple of recent HRRR/RRFS solutions hint that elevated convection along the boundary remains possible through mid-evening, and deep-layer wind shear is sufficient for organized convection. Across central OK, elevated thunderstorms developing late tonight within a modest warm advection regime may pose a threat for isolated large hail. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #2097 and #2098 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025/ ...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains... Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be possible regionally, with some hail as well. ...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley.... An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota... In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE, and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset. A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes, but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. The primary adjustment was an eastward expansion of 5% wind/hail probabilities into northwest AR where pulse convection is developing within a very buoyant (though weakly sheared) environment. Similar thermodynamic/kinematic conditions have yielded sporadic wind/hail reports in recent days, so at least a low-end severe threat is anticipated through early evening (see MCD #2096 for additional details). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. Convection is beginning to deepen across northeast OK, far eastern KS, and far southwest MO, which is expected to increase in coverage and intensity within the Slight risk area through the evening based on recent environmental data and CAM solutions. Further west, consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across eastern TX into western OK; however, surface convergence along a diffuse front is gradually increasing with an attendant uptick in mid-level cumulus. Forecast soundings and a couple of recent HRRR/RRFS solutions hint that elevated convection along the boundary remains possible through mid-evening, and deep-layer wind shear is sufficient for organized convection. Across central OK, elevated thunderstorms developing late tonight within a modest warm advection regime may pose a threat for isolated large hail. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #2097 and #2098 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025/ ...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains... Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be possible regionally, with some hail as well. ...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley.... An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota... In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE, and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset. A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes, but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. The primary adjustment was an eastward expansion of 5% wind/hail probabilities into northwest AR where pulse convection is developing within a very buoyant (though weakly sheared) environment. Similar thermodynamic/kinematic conditions have yielded sporadic wind/hail reports in recent days, so at least a low-end severe threat is anticipated through early evening (see MCD #2096 for additional details). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. Convection is beginning to deepen across northeast OK, far eastern KS, and far southwest MO, which is expected to increase in coverage and intensity within the Slight risk area through the evening based on recent environmental data and CAM solutions. Further west, consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across eastern TX into western OK; however, surface convergence along a diffuse front is gradually increasing with an attendant uptick in mid-level cumulus. Forecast soundings and a couple of recent HRRR/RRFS solutions hint that elevated convection along the boundary remains possible through mid-evening, and deep-layer wind shear is sufficient for organized convection. Across central OK, elevated thunderstorms developing late tonight within a modest warm advection regime may pose a threat for isolated large hail. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #2097 and #2098 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025/ ...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains... Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be possible regionally, with some hail as well. ...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley.... An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota... In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE, and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset. A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes, but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. The primary adjustment was an eastward expansion of 5% wind/hail probabilities into northwest AR where pulse convection is developing within a very buoyant (though weakly sheared) environment. Similar thermodynamic/kinematic conditions have yielded sporadic wind/hail reports in recent days, so at least a low-end severe threat is anticipated through early evening (see MCD #2096 for additional details). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. Convection is beginning to deepen across northeast OK, far eastern KS, and far southwest MO, which is expected to increase in coverage and intensity within the Slight risk area through the evening based on recent environmental data and CAM solutions. Further west, consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across eastern TX into western OK; however, surface convergence along a diffuse front is gradually increasing with an attendant uptick in mid-level cumulus. Forecast soundings and a couple of recent HRRR/RRFS solutions hint that elevated convection along the boundary remains possible through mid-evening, and deep-layer wind shear is sufficient for organized convection. Across central OK, elevated thunderstorms developing late tonight within a modest warm advection regime may pose a threat for isolated large hail. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #2097 and #2098 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025/ ...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains... Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be possible regionally, with some hail as well. ...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley.... An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota... In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE, and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset. A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes, but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. The primary adjustment was an eastward expansion of 5% wind/hail probabilities into northwest AR where pulse convection is developing within a very buoyant (though weakly sheared) environment. Similar thermodynamic/kinematic conditions have yielded sporadic wind/hail reports in recent days, so at least a low-end severe threat is anticipated through early evening (see MCD #2096 for additional details). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. Convection is beginning to deepen across northeast OK, far eastern KS, and far southwest MO, which is expected to increase in coverage and intensity within the Slight risk area through the evening based on recent environmental data and CAM solutions. Further west, consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across eastern TX into western OK; however, surface convergence along a diffuse front is gradually increasing with an attendant uptick in mid-level cumulus. Forecast soundings and a couple of recent HRRR/RRFS solutions hint that elevated convection along the boundary remains possible through mid-evening, and deep-layer wind shear is sufficient for organized convection. Across central OK, elevated thunderstorms developing late tonight within a modest warm advection regime may pose a threat for isolated large hail. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #2097 and #2098 for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025/ ...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains... Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be possible regionally, with some hail as well. ...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley.... An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota... In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE, and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset. A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes, but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited. Read more