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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z No changes are needed to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather concerns will continue for Saturday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest/Four Corners. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Great Basin. ...Southern High Plains... Medium-range guidance shows good agreement in the gradual ejection of the northern Rockies upper low into the Plains through the day Saturday. Lee troughing, coupled with thermally-driven pressure falls, should yield a modest surface low over the western OK/northwest TX where temperatures are expected to climb into the 100-105 F range. Ensemble guidance suggests the probability of sustained 15+ mph winds is generally low across central TX where fuels are currently most critical. A stronger pressure gradient near the surface low may support 15 mph winds (and hence the greatest fire weather concern) across northwest TX/southwest OK during peak heating. However, this region may also see afternoon thunderstorms per latest forecast soundings and ensemble QPF probabilities, which casts uncertainty into the duration and coverage of the fire weather threat. While elevated concerns appear most likely at this time, the potential for critical conditions will be monitored considering the critical nature of the fuels. ...Arizona into New Mexico... The aforementioned surface low over the Panhandles region will also augment westerly flow across northern AZ into northern NM. Sustained winds near 15-20 mph coupled with 15-20% RH appear likely based on both deterministic solutions and ensemble probabilities. While elevated conditions appear most probable, drier/windier solutions hint at the potential for critical conditions. Scattered pockets of wetting rain over the past 7 days complicate fuel status to some degree, but at least low-end fire weather concerns appear likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A slow-moving upper trough is expected to linger over the Pacific Northwest through the day Saturday. An influx of mid-level Pacific moisture and lift associated with this feature will result in another day of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings continue to show PWAT values near 0.6 to 0.75 inches with deep, well-mixed boundary layers conducive for a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms from northwest NV into OR and adjacent areas of northern CA. Dry thunderstorms are also possible across parts of eastern UT and western CO, but recent rainfall appears to have mitigated fuel status based on recent fuel guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
040- STATUS REPORT ON WW 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E DUJ TO 35 NNW IPT TO 30 NNE BGM TO 40 NNE UCA TO 25 ENE MSS. ..LYONS..08/04/23 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...PHI...BGM...BUF...BTV...OKX... CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-005-042040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MEC031-042040- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE YORK MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-025-027-042040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX Read more

WW 584 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NJ NY PA VT CW 041605Z - 050000Z
0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 584 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwestern Connecticut Much of Massachusetts Far southern Maine Central and southern New Hampshire Northwestern New Jersey Central and eastern New York Parts of central and eastern Pennsylvania Central and southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop across portions of Pennsylvania and New York and into New England early this afternoon, intensifying and evolving into clusters/bands of storms with time. Large hail up to golf ball size, and wind gusts locally exceeding 60 MPH are expected with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Lebanon NH to 35 miles southeast of State College PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Goss Read more

WW 584 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NJ NY PA VT CW 041605Z - 050000Z
0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 584 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwestern Connecticut Much of Massachusetts Far southern Maine Central and southern New Hampshire Northwestern New Jersey Central and eastern New York Parts of central and eastern Pennsylvania Central and southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop across portions of Pennsylvania and New York and into New England early this afternoon, intensifying and evolving into clusters/bands of storms with time. Large hail up to golf ball size, and wind gusts locally exceeding 60 MPH are expected with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Lebanon NH to 35 miles southeast of State College PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Goss Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central Plains to the Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valley vicinity on Saturday. Damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail (some 2+ inches) will be the primary severe weather hazards. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low currently within the northern Plains is expected to become more of an open wave and move southward/southeastward on Saturday. Mid/upper-level winds will increase through the period within the central High Plains eastward into the Missouri Valley as a result. Farther east, an MCV is forecast to track into the mid-Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley vicinity. At the surface, a remnant stationary boundary, perhaps reinforced by warm-advection precipitation, will remain from Missouri into the southern Plains. To the north, a surface low will deepen in South Dakota and eventually move into the Midwest along with its parent shortwave trough. This will act to push a cold front into the central Plains by Sunday morning. A secondary surface low is also forecast to develop in the southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains into Kansas... Upslope flow into the terrain is expected to be maintained ahead of the cold front which should approach by late afternoon. Upper 50s F to low 60s F dewpoints should be sufficient for a cluster or two of storms to develop within the terrain and spread eastward into eastern Colorado and western Kansas. There continues to be some uncertainty as to potential convection within southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Weak warm advection is still predicted by most guidance even into the afternoon. What impact this activity will have on the forecast does remain unclear. Even so, moderate to strong buoyancy is expected within eastern Colorado and south of areas impacted by early precipitation. Winds at mid/upper levels will be increasing into early evening. Hodographs will consequently become more favorable for supercells and large/very-large hail. It is not clear how quickly upscale growth will occur, but an increase in 850 mb flow from the south across West Texas will likely promote increasing storm coverage during the evening. Strong/severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, including gusts in excess of 75 mph. The spatial extent of significant gust potential will be conditional on degree and timing of upscale growth. Damaging wind potential will persist into the evening in some fashion across Kansas into perhaps western Missouri. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Near the surface low, storm development appears likely from southeast South Dakota into eastern Nebraska. Shear will decrease with northern extent, as will buoyancy, with the mid-level jet being generally near the Nebraska/Kansas border. However, some supercell structures appear possible that will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. A narrow corridor of backed surface winds near the low could support a risk for a tornado as well, but hodographs at mid/upper-levels do not appear favorable for sustained/strong mesocyclones. ...Lower Ohio Valley Vicinity... An MCV now in the Mid-Missouri Valley region is expected to progress into Illinois by early Saturday morning. Cloud cover and precipitation with this feature will mean some uncertainty in the magnitude and location of severe risk during the afternoon. The degree of surface heating will be the key and not all models suggest it will occur. However, there appears to be a conditionally favorable environment for marginal supercell structures capable of isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two. ..Wendt.. 08/04/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 4 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dora, located over a thousand miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 250 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo,
Mexico, have become better organized over the past several hours.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
so as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but
not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Much of Northwest Montana will be under Stage 2 fire restrictions starting on Saturday, Aug. 5. The affected federal, state and private jurisdictions in stage 2 restrictions were Flathead National Forest, including Hungry Horse, Glacier View; Swan Lake, Spotted Bear and Tally Ranger Districts to include the Great Bear Wilderness, Mission Mountain Wilderness, and the Flathead National Forest portion of the Bob Marshall Wilderness; Kootenai National Forest, including Rexford, Fortine, Three Rivers, Libby and Cabinet Ranger Districts; Glacier National Park; US Fish & Wildlife Service; Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, including Kalispell, Libby, Stillwater, Swan and Plains Units; Montana Fish, Wildlife, and Parks, Region 1 within Flathead County, Lake County, Lincoln County, Sanders County; Flathead County – Stage 2 fire restrictions; Lake County – Stage 2 fire restrictions; Lincoln County – Stage 2 fire restrictions; Sanders County– Stage 2 fire restrictions; Green Diamond was not allowing campfires on their lands; Flathead Ridge Ranch prohibited campfires on their lands; Southern Pine Plantation of Montana was not allowing campfires; Stimson Private Timber Company was not allowing campfires on their lands; and Stoltze Timber Company was not allowing campfires on their lands. On Aug. 7, Stoltze will close their land to public access of any kind. KPAX (Missoula, Mont.), Aug 3, 2023

St. Landry Parish authorities issued a burn ban in the parish effective immediately with the aim of reducing the number of grass fires occurring. The ban will remain in effect until further notice. KLFY News 10 (Lafayette, La.), Aug 4, 2023

MD 1823 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1823 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Areas affected...Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032149Z - 032345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose an isolated threat for sporadic severe/damaging winds and large hail across lower Michigan through the evening hours. Given the limited nature of the threat, watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A broken line of cells moving onshore across northwest Lower MI have demonstrated transient signs of organization over the past hour per KGRR and KAPX imagery. This activity, including a cell along the eastern WI shore, has produced near-severe wind/hail over the past couple of hours, including a 57 mph wind gust and 0.75 inch hail. The regional thermodynamic and kinematic environment appear adequate for convective maintenance with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-6 km bulk wind difference values approaching 30 knots. The somewhat disorganized/clustered nature of the convection and modest deep-layer shear will modulate the overall severe threat to some degree, but sporadic severe hail and damaging winds appear possible over the next few hours as these storms spread southeast across Lower MI. ..Moore/Mosier.. 08/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... LAT...LON 44038642 45028578 44878500 44458410 44038312 43678269 42858248 42348307 42208371 42518489 42948569 43178614 43398642 43688652 44038642 Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..08/03/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-011-017-025-039-061-063-073-075-087-089-095-099-115- 121-123-125-032240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-032240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX WYC015-021-032240- Read more

WW 582 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 032100Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 582 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado The Nebraska Panhandle Extreme southeast Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon/evening from the Front Range eastward into the Plains. The initial storms will be a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing isolated large hail up to 2 inches in diameter. Through the evening, storm mergers should lead to upscale growth and an increase in the threat for severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northwest of Alliance NE to 30 miles southwest of Lamar CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 581... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NW CBM TO 25 ENE TCL TO 25 E ANB TO 15 NW ATL TO 35 WSW AHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1822 ..LYONS..08/03/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-017-021-027-037-051-063-065-081-087-105-107-111-113- 117-121-123-125-032240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB CHAMBERS CHILTON CLAY COOSA ELMORE GREENE HALE LEE MACON PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH RUSSELL SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA GAC009-021-035-045-053-063-077-079-089-097-113-121-125-133-141- 145-149-151-153-159-163-169-171-193-197-199-207-211-215-217-219- 221-225-231-237-247-249-255-263-265-269-285-289-293-297-301-303- 317-319-032240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 581 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 031905Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Alabama Northwest Georgia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is expected to persist through the afternoon while moving southeastward, with the potential to produce occasional wind damage. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west of Tuscaloosa AL to 20 miles east northeast of Atlanta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 581 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 031905Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Alabama Northwest Georgia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is expected to persist through the afternoon while moving southeastward, with the potential to produce occasional wind damage. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west of Tuscaloosa AL to 20 miles east northeast of Atlanta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Great Basin into Northwest... Monsoonal moisture will linger over the northern Great Basin and Northwest on Day 3/Saturday. While the area will generally be beneath a midlevel trough and becoming displaced from the associated large-scale ascent, sufficient instability and modest forcing along/east of the Cascades should still support isolated high-based thunderstorms over central/eastern OR into northeast CA and northwest NV. If thunderstorms can form over this area, 0.5-0.7 inch PW and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms capable of lightning-induced ignitions. ...Central Texas into southwest Oklahoma... A continuation of 100 deg temperatures, 10-15 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts), and 20 percent RH, will support elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions on Day 3/Saturday -- exacerbated by critically dry fuels (97th percentile ERCs). Therefore, 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this risk. For Day 4/Sunday, a cold front and related northerly wind shift is expected over southern OK into north-central TX, which could impact any ongoing fires. While confidence in the development of 15 mph sustained surface winds is too low for Critical probabilities at this time, Elevated highlights could eventually be needed. For next week, a continuation of elevated fire-weather conditions is possible, though possible precipitation and the frontal passage casts uncertainty on the overall threat. ...Southwest... A warming/drying trend is expected during the extended forecast period across parts of the Southwest, as a large-scale ridge builds over southwest NM/southeast AZ. At the same time, a belt of moderate westerly midlevel flow will overspread the area along the northern periphery of the ridge. As a result, breezy surface winds and low RH should yield elevated to critical fire-weather conditions as fuels continue to dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday over northwest NM into northeast AZ -- where rainfall accumulations have been limited and confidence in the overlap of dry/breezy conditions is highest. Additional probabilities could eventually be needed depending on fuel trends during the next couple of days. ..Weinman.. 08/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Great Basin into Northwest... Monsoonal moisture will linger over the northern Great Basin and Northwest on Day 3/Saturday. While the area will generally be beneath a midlevel trough and becoming displaced from the associated large-scale ascent, sufficient instability and modest forcing along/east of the Cascades should still support isolated high-based thunderstorms over central/eastern OR into northeast CA and northwest NV. If thunderstorms can form over this area, 0.5-0.7 inch PW and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms capable of lightning-induced ignitions. ...Central Texas into southwest Oklahoma... A continuation of 100 deg temperatures, 10-15 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts), and 20 percent RH, will support elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions on Day 3/Saturday -- exacerbated by critically dry fuels (97th percentile ERCs). Therefore, 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this risk. For Day 4/Sunday, a cold front and related northerly wind shift is expected over southern OK into north-central TX, which could impact any ongoing fires. While confidence in the development of 15 mph sustained surface winds is too low for Critical probabilities at this time, Elevated highlights could eventually be needed. For next week, a continuation of elevated fire-weather conditions is possible, though possible precipitation and the frontal passage casts uncertainty on the overall threat. ...Southwest... A warming/drying trend is expected during the extended forecast period across parts of the Southwest, as a large-scale ridge builds over southwest NM/southeast AZ. At the same time, a belt of moderate westerly midlevel flow will overspread the area along the northern periphery of the ridge. As a result, breezy surface winds and low RH should yield elevated to critical fire-weather conditions as fuels continue to dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday over northwest NM into northeast AZ -- where rainfall accumulations have been limited and confidence in the overlap of dry/breezy conditions is highest. Additional probabilities could eventually be needed depending on fuel trends during the next couple of days. ..Weinman.. 08/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Aug 2023 20:40:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Aug 2023 21:23:03 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 032038 TCDEP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 Microwave satellite data received between 12-14Z suggests that Dora has been undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. In addition, the eye has been becoming more distinct during the past hour or two, although it is not much larger than the pinhole eye seen last night. Based on the satellite intensity estimates and the apparent eyewall replacement, the initial intensity is set at 105 kt. The initial motion remains 265/16 kt. As mentioned before, a well-established low- to mid-level ridge north of Dora is expected to maintain this general motion for the next several days. The track guidance, while tightly clustered, has shifted a little to the south from the previous advisory, and the forecast track is also nudged southward. The new forecast track is close to the various consensus models. The latest shear estimates and forecasts suggest the expected increase in easterly shear has not yet occurred. Based on this, there is probably a 6-12 h window for Dora to re-intensify as the eyewall replacement cycle ends, and the new intensity forecast shows modest intensification during that time. After 12 h, increased shear and slowly decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause weakening through 48 h. After 48 h, the shear is forecast to decrease while Dora is over water temperatures of 26-27C. The intensity guidance during this time shows a more gradual weakening than during the 12-48 h period, and this part of the intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance. While the wind field of Dora may expand slightly due to the eyewall replacement, it is expected to remain a compact system that could be more prone than normal to rapid intensity fluctuations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 14.4N 121.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 124.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 13.8N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 13.5N 130.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 13.0N 136.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 12.8N 140.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 12.5N 155.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2023 490 FOPZ15 KNHC 032037 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 26 30(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 15N 125W 50 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 125W 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 48(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 21(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 2(37) X(37) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 1(32) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 10N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 032037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 ...DORA A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 121.8W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 121.8 West. Dora is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible tonight. However, weakening is expected on Friday and Saturday. Dora is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven