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MD 1891 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601...604... FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1891 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Areas affected...Central Alabama...northern Georgia...western South Carolina...western North Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 601...604... Valid 072032Z - 072230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 601, 604 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for strong to severe winds will continue through the remainder of the afternoon. Storms from far northeast Georgia into western South and North Carolina appear to have the greatest potential. DISCUSSION...Moderate to strong buoyancy exists south of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms from central Alabama into western South and North Carolina. Portions of this activity that are oriented more north-south will likely have greater potential for strong/severe wind gusts, which is the case for western South Carolina into adjacent western North Carolina. The more west-east oriented portions of the line in Alabama/Georgia may still produce wind damage as new updrafts develop along the outflow within the hot/unstable boundary layer. The southern extent of the severe threat is not certain as shear drops off with southward extent. ..Wendt.. 08/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 33298821 33938685 34268567 34468456 34918285 35458127 35368066 34998063 33968285 33188502 32878702 32938778 33298821 Read more

WW 0607 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0607 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 607 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC 072030Z - 080400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 607 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Georgia North Carolina South Carolina * Effective this Monday afternoon from 430 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms may intensify and become severe initially across central Georgia into the South Carolina Piedmont, but more so, well-organized linear cluster of storms ongoing late this afternoon across northern Georgia and the western Carolinas will steadily move eastward through this evening. Widespread damaging winds are expected. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Rocky Mount NC to 15 miles east southeast of Macon GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 599...WW 600...WW 601...WW 602...WW 603...WW 604...WW 605...WW 606... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND FAR SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across parts of the eastern U.S. this afternoon into the early evening with widespread and locally destructive damaging winds and tornadoes as the greatest threats, especially across the southern/central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. ...Discussion... Only notable change this convective outlook update is to remove severe probabilities in wake of thunderstorm bands and where low-level flow has strongly veered to westerly over much of the OH Valley into portions of the upper TN Valley. Elsewhere, little change was made to the previously issued forecast. ..Smith.. 08/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023/ ...Southeast to the Upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... Owing to a very moist/unstable air mass and very strong winds aloft for August, a widespread severe-weather risk is already unfolding at late morning/midday across a broad region, initially west of the Appalachians spine. Refer to ongoing Watches and Mesoscale Discussions for the latest regional details. A shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley will continue to advance toward the northern Appalachians by evening. A pair of 500-mb speed maxima from 55-65 kts are expected to be centered by late afternoon across eastern KY/TN and southern WV into western VA/NC, and separately over the Mid-South. Peak flow within an expansive 700-mb jet should be centered between the 500-mb maxima across the TN Valley. A plume of large potential buoyancy supported by high PW and steep mid-level lapse rates, and centered over the Mid-South/TN Valley will expand east-northeast towards the central/southern Appalachians with an expansive swath of MLCAPE from 2000-3500 J/kg expected by peak heating. Ongoing storms across eastern portions of TN/KY and WV/southern OH will progress into an increasingly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment downstream, yielding many supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Upscale growth into several linear clusters with embedded supercells is anticipated this afternoon as convective coverage becomes widespread from PA/MD south-southwest across the southern Appalachian states. Forecast soundings suggest the greatest tornado threat will probably exist across eastern KY/TN northeast across southern/eastern WV, western VA, central MD and into southeast PA. Given the supercell wind profiles, significant severe wind gusts will also be possible on a localized basis. Across the Southeast, aided by a separate mid-level speed max, linear clusters of storms will continue to develop and spread generally eastward across parts of the TN Valley toward the southern Appalachians and Carolinas, with damaging winds as the most common hazard. ...Central High Plains... No changes warranted for this region. A 50-60 kt mid-level speed max should become centered near the NE/CO/KS border vicinity by late afternoon with approach of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse currently over southeast ID. This will overlap a confined north/south-oriented corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg along a lee trough across the similar tri-state area. Initial high-based thunderstorm development is anticipated off the higher terrain of CO/WY and will intensify as it impinges on the larger buoyancy during the early evening. A few supercells with very large hail will be possible along with a meso-beta scale corridor favorable for a tornadic supercell or two. Clustering of supercells may yield a short-duration uptick in severe wind gust potential across parts of western KS before convection spreads away from the relatively narrow instability plume and encounters increasing MLCIN after sunset. ...Southern High Plains... A wind-driven Slight Risk has been introduced for portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains for later this afternoon and evening. Strong westerlies, particularly by August standards, and a hot/well-mixed boundary layer should support at least some severe storms capable of severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... A Critical risk was added into portions of central and northwestern Texas on Tuesday. Deepening low pressure across the southern Plains will lead to an increase in southerly surface winds through the day Tuesday. Sustained winds near 15 mph (gusting 20-25 mph) will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions around 15-25 percent. Winds may increase to around 15-20 mph (gusting 20-30 mph) amid slowly increasing relative humidity into the evening as the low continues to deepen and moisture moves north and west. Given the extremely dry state of fuels and multiple ongoing large fires, the Critical risk is supported though winds may be borderline within some portion of the highlighted Critical area. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Four Corners region and portions of central to southwest Texas as an upper trough approaches the central Rockies. Short to medium-range guidance shows fairly good agreement in the deepening of an upper disturbance (noted over the northeast Pacific in early-morning water-vapor imagery) over the next 48 hours. This will support pressure falls along the High Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds over the Four Corners and southern Plains where fuels remain dry. ...Four Corners... Surface winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across a large swath of the greater Four Corners region. The strongest winds will likely occur over parts of northern AZ to southern/eastern UT under a belt of stronger mid-level flow with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. Antecedent dry conditions and mostly sunny skies will favor RH reductions into the single digits to low teens across UT, western CO, and northern AZ with gradually improving moisture quality with southward extent into central AZ/NM. As with Monday, the southern and eastern extent of the fire weather threat is uncertain due to 1) an influx of monsoonal moisture from southern AZ and 2) the potential for afternoon showers/thunderstorms - especially over northeast NM where 1-3 hours of elevated conditions may develop prior to convective initiation. Regardless, several hours of elevated conditions appears likely with critical conditions possible over northern AZ/southern UT. ...Texas... Surface gradient winds will steadily increase through the day Tuesday as the lee trough/cyclone deepens. While there is some model spread in the strength of the low over western TX, ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for sustained winds near 15 mph (gusting to 20-25 mph) by peak heating. With forecast highs near 105 F, RH minimums near 20-30%, and critically dry fuels already in place, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are probable across a large swath of central to southwest TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The level of Lake Superior fell nearly half an inch in July, although it usually rises 2 inches. Lake Superior usually rises from April to September, then declines slightly during the fall and winter. Duluth News Tribune (Minn.), Aug 7, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Large to very large hail along with a risk for a tornado and widely scattered severe gusts will be the potential hazards. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery midday Monday shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to be over the northern Intermountain region Tuesday morning and move east-southeast through the central Rockies during the period. Farther east, a mid-level trough over the Lower Great Lakes southward into the Mid-Atlantic states will pivot eastward and be located to the east of the New England coast by late Tuesday night. At the surface, low pressure near Lake Ontario will shift northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley. A cold front attendant to the low will develop eastward across southern New England through the day and offshore the northeast Atlantic coast during the evening/overnight. The southern extent of the front will stall over South Carolina. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass from the central Plains into the Southeast. ...Central Plains... Large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned disturbance will overspread the central High Plains by mid-late afternoon. Low-level upslope flow will maintain a moist airmass from northwest KS towards the Cheyenne Ridge and feature dewpoints ranging through the 50s and into the 60s over northwest KS/southwest NE. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km atop the moist boundary-layer will support MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells with the stronger updrafts through the early evening. The relatively moist conditions centered over northeast CO could yield a focus risk for a tornado during the early evening, in addition to the threat for large to very large hail (diameters 2 to 3 inches). A 30-kt southerly LLJ is forecast to develop during the evening/overnight with the terminus located within an 850-mb moist axis. Considered higher severe-wind probabilities adjoining to the east of the 30-percent severe hail probabilities but uncertainty remained high regarding the convective morphology/orientation of storms as the activity moves into north-central KS/southern NE. ...Southeast... Residual outflow from convection in the Day 1 period will likely reside from northern MS into central AL/GA. This will result in differential heating ahead of convection expected to be ongoing across eastern OK/AR Tuesday morning in response to a vorticity maximum migrating through northwesterly flow aloft. As this convectively enhanced vorticity max and related MCV shifts east by early afternoon, thunderstorm are expected to increase rapidly intensify from central MS east into AL during the early-mid afternoon. An organized cluster/MCS is forecast to spread east across central/southern AL/GA during the afternoon and reach southern GA by early evening. Very high PW (2+ inches) and around 4000 J/kg MLCAPE forecast downstream of the evolving thunderstorm complex will likely result in isolated severe gusts and at least widely scattered wind damage. ...Southern New England... Storms will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning in a warm advection band ahead of the surface cold front. Backed low-level winds and proximity to the surface low will result in 0-1 km SRH around than 250 s2/m2. Weak lapse rates will limit updraft intensity, but very moist low-levels coupled with the low-level shear will support an environment conditionally favorable for storm rotation. The severe threat will probably diminish by midday as the warm advection-related storms shift northeast and move into the adjacent Atlantic waters. ..Smith.. 08/07/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 7 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Eugene, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Central Part of the Basin:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south or
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of the
week. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend
while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Whole fields of corn in severe drought in central and eastern Missouri did not pollinate, due to drought. A grower in Randolph County reported that his corn had received just a few inches of rain all year. While the corn may look lush and green, the ears may have a few kernels, but mostly did not pollinate. The lack of pollination was widespread in the Randolph County area, according to the farmer. AgWeb (Mexico, Mo.), Aug 7, 2023

Just two inches of rain have fallen on a Buffalo County farm since early June. The dryland corn was being swathed and baled. Sixteen of his 17 ponds have gone dry, forcing him to haul water for his cattle as the windmills could not keep pace. KETV Newswatch 7 (Omaha, Neb.), July 27, 2023

Drought in the Chicago area since late May has caused some trees to drop their leaves earlier than usual. The region's trees have also been stressed by less than ideal weather for the past decade or more. Tulip trees and river birches have been sensitive to the dearth of rain. Arlington Heights Daily Herald (Ill.), Aug 1, 2023

Corn leaves were rolling and soybean leaves were flipping in parts of northwest Iowa with lighter soils. Storm Lake Times Pilot (Iowa), Aug 4, 2023

Drought and heat in the Ozarks have cut into hay production, leaving the region seriously short of hay. The farm service office in Bolivar was working with farmers to help them buy hay. Many farmers have had to take second jobs. KY3 (Springfield, Mo.), July 30, 2023

Wisconsin crops have already sustained damage and will not recover from drought. some corn did not pollinate well. A Sauk County farmer was letting pasture rest longer because grass was not growing back and turned brown. WiscNews (Madison, Wis.), Aug. 4, 2023

MD 1869 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1869 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023 Areas affected...Southeast Georgia into far southern South Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 596... Valid 062224Z - 070030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 596 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds will remain possible into the evening hours as storms approach the Georgia/South Carolina coast; however, this threat will likely remain fairly limited. Downstream watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorm clusters/lines across central to eastern Georgia have largely become outflow dominant over the past few hours. With cell motions to the east - orthogonal to the outflow propagation vector - new development along these boundaries is uncertain across central GA. Further east, a more easterly cold-pool motion is allowing for new cell development within an unstable air mass (SBCAPE estimates up to 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings from this region appear favorable for wet downbursts capable of damaging winds. The expectation over the next hour is for continued cell development along/behind the eastward-moving outflow with the potential for sporadic damaging winds. This activity may persist to the GA/SC coast, but storm longevity/organization will remain too limited to pose a more robust threat. Consequently, downstream watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore.. 08/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 32448275 32688223 33068170 33128126 33028076 32698046 32358043 31828085 31448105 31378119 31428188 31858254 32148284 32278285 32448275 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Central/Southwestern Texas... Very hot and dry conditions across central/southwestern Texas have led to critically dry fuels with an increase in fire activity. On Tuesday, a surface low will develop across the Southern Plains and deepen into Wednesday morning. Increasing surface winds will be likely into the afternoon/evening across central/southwestern Texas. A developing low-level jet will bring sustained winds 20-25 mph late D3 -Tuesday through D4 - Wednesday morning with moisture steadily increasing from the southeast. Relative humidity will continue to hover near 20-25 percent much of Tuesday evening before better moisture return begins. Afternoon mixing will allow relative-humidity reductions on D4 - Wednesday to 15-20 percent but winds should decrease below Critical thresholds through the day. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue each day through the extended period, as dry conditions and more warm temperatures continue each afternoon under lighter winds. ...Southwest... Dry westerly flow will persist across northern Arizona, southern Utah, southwestern Colorado, and north/central New Mexico on D3 - Tuesday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (as low as 5-10 percent across southern Utah) will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. At present, inclusion of a 70 percent Critical area is limited by unknowns in the duration and coverage of Critical winds. In addition, moisture will be steadily increasing beneath the Southwest high Tuesday into Wednesday across Arizona and western New Mexico. This will be a return of shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday and Wednesday. Elevated fire weather conditions will become more sparse on Wednesday as a result, mainly confined to central New Mexico. Winds decrease beneath the building high beyond Wednesday with increasing moisture and potential uptick in monsoon thunderstorm activity. ..Thornton.. 08/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0597 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE COU TO 35 SSW UIN TO 15 WNW UIN TO 35 WSW BRL TO 15 NE OTM. ..LYONS..08/06/23 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-005-009-013-017-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-047-049-051- 057-061-067-071-079-081-083-101-107-109-115-117-119-121-125-129- 133-135-137-139-145-149-157-159-163-167-169-171-173-185-187-189- 191-062240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOND BROWN CALHOUN CASS CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FULTON GREENE HANCOCK HENDERSON JASPER JEFFERSON JERSEY LAWRENCE LOGAN MCDONOUGH MACON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MASON MENARD MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN MOULTRIE PERRY PIKE RANDOLPH RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT SHELBY WABASH WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE Read more

WW 597 TORNADO IA IL MO 062015Z - 070300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 597 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Iowa Western and South-Central Illinois Eastern Missouri * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, initially across southeast Iowa, far eastern Missouri and western Illinois. This includes supercells capable of large hail and a tornado risk. Storms should increase and move into/across much of south-central Illinois by evening, with damaging winds also a possibility. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Quincy IL to 45 miles southeast of Mattoon IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 595...WW 596... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E CHA TO 30 NNW ATL TO 30 ENE ATL TO 35 WNW AGS TO 10 N AGS TO 10 WSW CAE. ..LYONS..08/06/23 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-015-021-023-033-035-045-047-053-055-063-077-079-083-097- 107-113-115-125-129-141-143-145-149-151-153-159-163-167-169-171- 175-193-197-199-207-215-217-223-225-231-233-237-249-255-263-269- 283-285-289-293-295-301-303-313-319-062240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARTOW BIBB BLECKLEY BURKE BUTTS CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTAHOOCHEE CHATTOOGA CLAYTON COWETA CRAWFORD DADE DOUGLAS EMANUEL FAYETTE FLOYD GLASCOCK GORDON HANCOCK HARALSON HARRIS HEARD HENRY HOUSTON JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES LAMAR LAURENS MACON MARION MERIWETHER MONROE MUSCOGEE NEWTON PAULDING PEACH PIKE POLK PUTNAM SCHLEY SPALDING TALBOT TAYLOR TREUTLEN TROUP TWIGGS UPSON Read more