Aggregator

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0615 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 615 SEVERE TSTM FL GA SC CW 082130Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme northeast Florida Southeast Georgia Extreme southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 530 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will continue to spread eastward through late evening with the potential to produce occasional wind damage. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Waycross GA to 60 miles east northeast of Brunswick GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 613...WW 614... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...FOCUSED ON THE NORTHEASTERN COLORADO VICINITY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the central Plains during the late afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two are possible. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail will also remain possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast. ...Discussion... The MRGL risk area over southeastern New England is being removed in this update, as earlier storms have moved offshore, and any risk with subsequent convection should remain low. Otherwise, no changes appear to be needed to existing lines and associated forecast reasoning, as evolution of the scenario continues according to prior expectations. ..Goss.. 08/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023/ ...Wyoming/northern Colorado to Central Plains... A prominent summertime shortwave trough will continue to advance southeastward over southeast Idaho/northern Utah into Wyoming today, with downstream height falls influencing the High Plains by evening. This scenario will enhance lee troughing, aiding a north-northwestward surge of low-level moisture through late afternoon/evening toward much of the Colorado Front Range and southeast Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle. Initial high-based thunderstorm development is expected over the mountains/higher terrain of northern Colorado/southern Wyoming by mid-afternoon, with a subsequent increase/eastward spread, along with additional development into the larger buoyancy environment across the central High Plains including northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. Strengthening late-day westerlies (35-45 kt) will contribute to elongated, nearly-straight hodographs, while buoyancy with 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE should be maximized across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska. Splitting supercells are expected with a north/south-oriented cluster likely evolving relatively quickly as outflows consolidate towards the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. The potential for a longer-track discrete supercell or two appears greatest along the southern periphery of convective development owing to lack of interference from other storms. Very large hail, significant severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible. A strengthening nocturnal low-level jet and enhanced warm/moist advection near/above the surface could help maintain or even reinvigorate the MCS east-southeastward into central/eastern Kansas overnight, with damaging wind potential and possibly some hail risk. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The leading edge of a residual MCS is ongoing across the Lower Mississippi Valley at late morning, with a considerable amount of trailing stratiform precipitation. Much of this MCS will continue to interface with the cooler/more stable side of the front that arcs roughly west-to-east across Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama and Georgia, with some of the MCS-related cloud canopy extending across the downstream warm sector. But even a glancing influence of the MCS/any MCV and related outflows should contribute to at least isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development near the front this afternoon as the boundary layer becomes moderately to strongly unstable, with upper 70s F warm-sector surface dewpoints common. Upstream WSR-88D VWP data (such as Fort Smith AR and Little Rock this morning) does sample a seasonally strong 50+ kt belt of westerlies between 3-8 km AGL, with the stronger winds grazing the frontal zone/adjacent warm sector. This is likely to support sustained/relatively organized multicellular clusters with scattered damaging winds as the most common hazard. ...New England... A relatively short duration severe risk may briefly linger early this afternoon across coastal southeast New England in association with a narrow warm/moist sector ahead of a secondary surface low, including the possibly of a localized wind damage and/or a brief tornado. Otherwise, convective development this afternoon is anticipated over western New England where deep-layer shear will be weak in closer proximity to the trough axis, with the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development expected to remain low. ...Northern Minnesota/eastern North Dakota... A shortwave trough over northern Manitoba and northwest Ontario will continue to dig southeastward, with a cold front settling southward across North Dakota/northern Minnesota through tonight. Thunderstorms should be focused along the front particularly late this afternoon through early evening. An adequate combination of deep-layer shear and instability should support an isolated severe wind/hail risk. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO NORTH TEXAS... The current D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across central to north Texas on Wednesday as a surface trough moves through the region and strengthens low-level winds. More localized concerns may emerge across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. ...Texas... The upper trough currently approaching the central Rockies is forecast to slowly meander east into the mid-MS Valley by late Wednesday. As this occurs, an attendant surface trough trailing into central TX will migrate east. This will strengthen region pressure gradient winds, with ensemble guidance showing reasonably high probability for sustained 15-20 mph south/southwesterly winds. With exceptionally dry fuels already in place and temperatures exceeding 100 F expected by mid-afternoon, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected. There is some uncertainty regarding 1) the potential for wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours (and its impact on fuel status), and 2) the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon along the surface trough. These storms may produce beneficial rain and modulate the overall fire threat, or could produce gusty outflow winds and locally exacerbate fire concerns. ...Southwest and Great Basin... More localized elevated fire weather conditions are expected across central NM and western to central NV. Across NM, 15-20 mph gradient winds in the wake of the surface trough are likely and should overlap with RH values in the teens to low 20s. However, recent rainfall has likely mitigated fuel status across this region. To the west, downslope flow in the lee of the Sierra Nevada may support localized elevated conditions across western/southern NV. Ensemble guidance suggests these conditions will remain fairly localized and confined to the immediate lee of the terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Mississippi Forestry Commission placed three counties—Lawrence, Walthall and Amite—under burn bans as dry, hot weather persisted. The bans expire on Aug. 21 for Lawrence County, Aug. 30 for Walthall County and September 4 for Amite County. Adams County was in a burn ban through Aug. 31, per The Natchez Democrat. The Daily Leader (Brookhaven, Miss.), Aug 8, 2023

The Mississippi Forestry Commission urged all residents to be cautious and fire aware as the state continued to endure extreme temperatures and dry conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index was well above 600. The Daily Leader (Brookhaven, Miss.), Aug 8, 2023

Much of the Potomac River watershed remained in moderate to severe drought. River flows continued to be low with little rain in the forecast. Daily monitoring of the river began when flows dropped below 2,000 cubic feet per second. As of Aug. 3, the Potomac was flowing at 1,700 cfs. Median flow for this time of year is 2,770 cubic feet per second. The precipitation departure from normal in the past 90 days has been 3.2 inches below average. Morgan Messenger (Berkeley Springs, W.V.), Aug 8, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from eastern Oklahoma/Kansas eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinity. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short wave trough, embedded in a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly flow across the central and eastern U.S., will advance steadily east-southeastward, crossing the Mid Mississippi Valley overnight. A belt of enhanced flow in the lower and middle troposphere (40 to 60 kt at mid levels) will spread across the Ozarks through the day, and across the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the evening and overnight. At the surface, a cold front -- trailing from a weak low initially progged over eastern Kansas -- is forecast to shift eastward into the Ozarks and southeastern Oklahoma through the day, and then across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley overnight. By the end of the period, the front should extend from a low over the Ohio vicinity west-southwestward to North Texas. ...Eastern portions of KS/OK eastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-South/Southeast... Expectations remain that fairly widespread convection will be ongoing at the start of the period across eastern Kansas and Missouri, which should shift eastward through the day into/across the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Very limited/local severe risk may be ongoing early, and should increase through the day as the airmass ahead of the convection destabilizes. Locally damaging winds should be the primary severe risk assuming storms intensify as expected, along with potential for hail and a tornado or two. Meanwhile, a second round of convection is forecast to develop in the recovering airmass across the Ozarks vicinity ahead of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening, with timing and initial intensity of the convection modulated by prior storms and any lingering cloud cover. Eventually, storms should intensify and grow upscale into one or more clusters -- aided by a 35-45 kt southwesterly low-level jet. At this time, it appears that overall risk for damaging winds -- potential from two separate rounds of storms -- warrants upgrade to ENH risk/30% wind probability across parts of the Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, which would continue well into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/08/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form late this week several hundred
miles south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend while it moves
generally westward across the central portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Water conservation was requested in Coteau as water levels were low in the water system's tanks, due to high demand amid intense heat and drought. KATC (Lafayette, La.), Aug. 2, 2023

St. Landry Parish Waterworks District No. 2 (Rural) was struggling to keep up with water demand amid the drought. KATC (Lafayette, La.), Aug 8, 2023

Farmers in Adams County were praying for rain and fear that it would not be enough to salvage the crop. It’s likely too late to make up the precipitation deficit of seven inches from April 1 to July 31. WGEM-TV Quincy (Ill.), Aug 1, 2023

At least 11 wildfires have burned more than 2,700 acres across Texas though 6 p.m. Monday, Aug. 7, per the Texas A&M Forest Service. Intense heat and drought prompted authorities to increase the Preparedness Level to Level 4 out of 5, due to a “significant increase in fire activity.” Of the 254 counties in Texas, 168 had burn bans in effect on Aug. 7. KXAN Online (Austin, Texas), Aug 7, 2023

El Paso Water was planning for continued drought next spring as record heat and the direst drought conditions in 90 years stressed the city’s water supply. On July 12, the utility’s board passed a drought resolution for spring 2024 for the third straight year. The measure would let the utility expedite drought-relief projects, such as well drilling and procurements of materials such as membranes for filtering out contaminants from water at water treatment plants. El Paso Matters (Texas), Aug 7, 2023

Water restrictions have tightened in Coppell, which entered stage two restrictions, and DeSoto, which enacted stage one restrictions, as intense heat and drought continued. KXAS-TV NBC 5 Dallas - Fort Worth (Texas), Aug 7, 2023

Residents in Olmsted County were asked by officials with Rochester Public Utilities to curb their water use for irrigation, car washing and pool filling as extremely hot, dry weather persists. KAAL-TV ABC 6 (Rochester, Minn.), Aug 6, 2023

The Fairhope city council voted unanimously to declare a phase three water emergency as high water demand, driven by heat and drought, was not allowing water tanks to refill. Consequently, the town was dealing with low water pressure and brown water. GulfCoastNewsToday.com (Foley, Ala.), Aug 7, 2023

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOSIER..08/07/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-017-025-039-041-061-063-073-075-087-089-095- 099-115-121-123-125-072340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-039-071-109-153-179-181-193-199-203-072340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA Read more

WW 606 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 072000Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 606 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to develop across the region this afternoon. This will include supercells capable of very large hail, and possibly some (mostly brief) tornado risk. Damaging wind potential may also increase by late afternoon/early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north of Scottsbluff NE to 15 miles east of Springfield CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 599...WW 600...WW 601...WW 602...WW 603...WW 604...WW 605... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOSIER..08/07/23 ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-072340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC011-029-035-041-072340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-033-041-072340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER SALEM WARREN Read more