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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... Dry westerly flow across the northern Arizona and north/central New Mexico will continue to augment drying fuels on D3 - Monday and D4 - Tuesday. Moisture will attempt to move into far southern/south-central New Mexico Monday into Tuesday, which will limit the southward extent of lower relative humidity. The mid-level high will begin to build back in across the Four Corners Region from Tuesday onward, with decreasing wind and increasing temperatures. Pockets of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible with afternoon relative humidity around 15-20 percent but breezes will be localized and remain below Critical criteria. A return of more appreciable monsoon moisture further north into northern Arizona/western New Mexico looks favorable by late in the period as the high builds with weak troughing off the west coast enhancing southerly moisture transport off the Gulf of California. ...Central Texas... Extremely hot and dry conditions continue to render extremely dry fuels across central/southwestern Texas. Elevated conditions are possible most each day of the extended period, with the limiting factor being widespread sustained winds at or above 15 mph. Even in the absence of winds, fuels and extremely hot and unstable conditions continue to foster increased fire behavior. A surface front sagging southward Sunday into early Monday will cool highs and bring increase in cloud cover and shower/thunderstorm potential across northern Texas near the Red River Valley. Mainly light rainfall is forecast within this region, which may not change the status of fuels considerably heading into increasing winds on Tuesday/Wednesday as a surface low develops across the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 15-20 mph will be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. 40 percent probabilities were introduced on these days with better confidence in the stronger winds overlapping continued hot/dry conditions. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1848 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 589... FOR NORTHWESTERN IOWA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023 Areas affected...Northwestern Iowa into adjacent areas of South Dakota and Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 589... Valid 052202Z - 060000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 589 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for a tornado or two continues across northwestern Iowa into adjacent areas of southeast South Dakota and northwest Nebraska. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity over the mid-Missouri River Valley continues to be focused along a surface warm front noted in recent surface analysis. By most metrics, this convective intensity has been muted with modest reflectivity values, transient lightning pulses, and somewhat warm cloud top temperatures. However, cells continue to take on supercellular characteristics early on in their life cycle, and weak low to mid-level rotation is noted in KFSD velocity data. KFSD VWP observations well north of the warm front show 0-1 km SRH values near 200 m2/s2 where surface winds are easterly. This is likely an overestimate for the what cells are experiencing along the warm front (where winds are out of the southeast). But taken in context of the velocity trends suggests that SRH is likely sufficient to maintain a tornado threat for more robust cells that can become established prior to moving into a more stable air mass north/northeast of the warm front. ..Moore.. 08/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 41489551 41949588 42389633 42729702 43049721 43339697 43289606 42879521 42589469 42119433 41599426 41289444 41189467 41159502 41239529 41489551 Read more

WW 0592 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 592 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..08/05/23 ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 592 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC023-033-079-101-159-052340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD JASPER LAWRENCE RICHLAND INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-031-035-045-055-057-059-063-065- 067-071-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-121-133-139- 145-153-157-159-165-167-171-052340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BOONE BROWN CARROLL CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DECATUR DELAWARE FOUNTAIN GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY HOWARD JACKSON JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARTIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWEN PARKE PUTNAM Read more

WW 592 TORNADO IL IN 052145Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 592 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far East-Central Illinois Central and Southern Indiana * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 545 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a surface low moving eastward across the Ohio Valley. Low-level shear appears strong enough to support a few thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and/or tornadoes as these storms move eastward this afternoon and evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Muncie IN to 50 miles southwest of Bloomington IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 588...WW 589...WW 590...WW 591... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0591 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 591 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..08/05/23 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-139-052340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TEXAS TXC011-045-065-069-117-153-179-189-195-211-233-279-295-341-357- 359-369-375-381-393-421-437-483-052340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO DEAF SMITH FLOYD GRAY HALE HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LAMB LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN SWISHER WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 591 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 052100Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 591 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 400 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon with a large hail and severe gust risk. Additional storms are forecast to develop this evening with a more significant severe wind threat accompanying the stronger storms through the late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Guymon OK to 20 miles southwest of Plainview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 588...WW 589...WW 590... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE BVX TO 35 SW DYR TO 10 S DYR TO 25 NNE DYR. ..LYONS..08/05/23 ATTN...WFO...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC035-077-107-123-052340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRITTENDEN LEE PHILLIPS ST. FRANCIS MSC009-027-033-093-107-119-137-143-052340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON COAHOMA DESOTO MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN TATE TUNICA TNC017-023-033-047-053-069-075-077-097-109-113-157-167-052340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT Read more

WW 590 SEVERE TSTM AR MS TN 052030Z - 060200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify through the afternoon into the early evening. Wind damage is possible with the stronger cells as the storms move east. Marginally severe hail may accompany the stronger cores. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles east southeast of Jackson TN to 65 miles west southwest of Memphis TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 588...WW 589... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29020. ...Smith Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 589 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..08/05/23 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 589 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-047-085-093-119-133-141-143-149-165-167-193-052240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD HARRISON IDA LYON MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SHELBY SIOUX WOODBURY MNC105-117-133-052240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK NEC003-021-027-037-039-043-051-053-107-119-139-141-167-173-177- 179-052240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BURT CEDAR Read more

WW 589 TORNADO IA MN NE SD 052000Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 589 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Iowa Southwest Minnesota Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will develop through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening over the watch area. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of a tornado risk, in addition to a large hail and severe wind hazard. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Sioux Falls SD to 20 miles south southwest of Tekamah NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 588... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Smith Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..08/05/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-017-025-031-035-039-041-055-061-063-071-073- 087-089-099-101-119-121-125-052240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO HUERFANO KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN MORGAN OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO TELLER WASHINGTON YUMA NMC059-052240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION OKC025-052240- Read more

WW 588 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 051930Z - 060400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 588 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to intensify this afternoon into the evening and spread generally from west to east across the watch area. Large to giant hail is possible with the more intense supercells, along with severe gusts with the stronger thunderstorms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northwest of Akron CO to 35 miles west southwest of Dalhart TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Aug 2023 20:39:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Aug 2023 21:23:15 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Aug 2023 20:39:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Aug 2023 21:29:56 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023 444 WTPZ41 KNHC 052038 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023 This afternoon's satellite presentation of the system has improved, with a well-developed curved band in its eastern semicircle and a recent burst of deep convection with -75 Celsius cloud tops just east of the surface circulation. Based on this and a consensus of the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the system is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Eugene, making it the fifth tropical storm of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Although dry mid-tropospheric air originating from mainland Mexico may be negatively affecting the cyclone's intensification rate, as indicated by the presence of a few arc clouds, a brief window of opportunity still exists for further strengthening during the next day or so. By mid-period, Eugene is expected to move over the cooler water west of the Baja California peninsula and enter a surrounding dry and stable marine-layer air mass. The NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by 72 hours, or sooner, and dissipation in 5 days which is slightly below the Decay SHIPS statistical guidance, but close to the LGEM and the usually reliable intensity consensus guidance. The initial estimated motion is northwestward or 315/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged, and Eugene should move generally northwestward in the short term within the southeasterly mid-level steering flow provided by a subtropical ridge to the north. By 48 hours, the vertically shallow cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest in the lower boundary trade wind flow while a reduction in forward speed takes place, possibly meandering before dissipating next week. The updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous official forecast and lies near the various consensus models. Although the track forecast is currently off the southwestern coast of Mexico, enough uncertainty still exists that interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 19.2N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 23.4N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 24.6N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 25.6N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 26.2N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1800Z 27.5N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052037 TCDEP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023 Dora has become significantly better organized over the past six hours, with a well-defined 15 n mi wide eye inside a cold central dense overcast. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 100-120 kt range, and the initial intensity is increased to 115 kt in best agreement with the subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB. As noted in the last several advisories, Dora continues moving westward along the southern side of a deep-layer ridge to the north. This ridge is expected to build westward for the next three days or so, which should induce a somewhat faster forward speed while it passes well south of Hawaii early next week. There has been little change to the track guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is again almost identical to the old track. Dora is moving over sea surface temperatures near 27C, and it is currently in a light-shear environment. This is at least partly responsible for the current intensification. The intensity guidance suggests this round of intensification should be almost over, although there is some uncertainty in this since it underestimated how strong the storm would get today. Based on the current trends and the current guidance, the intensity forecast calls for some additional strengthening during the next 12 h, followed by some weakening. After 48 h, while Dora should remain over 27C sea surface temperatures and in light shear through 96 h, it is expected to encounter a drier environment and an area of upper-level convergence. These factors should lead to continued gradual weakening, with the caveat that there is a large spread in the guidance on how much weakening will occur. The early part of the intensity forecast follows the upper edge of the intensity guidance, while the 60-120 h portion is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 13.3N 134.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 13.1N 137.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 12.7N 144.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 13.5N 171.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

...DORA REGAINS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY... ...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON SUNDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Aug 5 the center of Dora was located near 13.3, -134.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 052037 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 50 8(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) 20N 110W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 052036 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 134.8W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 134.8W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 134.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.1N 137.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.7N 144.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 13.5N 171.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 134.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 052036 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.4N 115.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.6N 118.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.6N 120.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS