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WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0573 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 573 SEVERE TSTM SD WY 301950Z - 310400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM MDT Sun Jul 30 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercells are expected in the vicinity of the Black Hills through the afternoon, with the potential for isolated very large hail. Later this evening, additional storms will likely move into the watch area and grow upscale, with an attendant threat for severe outflow winds up to 75 mph. An isolated tornado will be possible with favorable storm interactions. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 120 miles west of Rapid City SD to 20 miles east southeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 31020. ...Thompson Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301751
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located to the south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear to be
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at near 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Southwest of southern Baja California:
A small area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of Baja California is producing a few showers and
thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is unlikely
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and gusty winds appear possible Monday across parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional thunderstorms producing mainly strong to damaging winds may occur across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley, coastal Southeast, and southern Arizona. ...Synopsis... An upper-level anticyclone will remain centered over the southern Plains Monday, with upper ridging extending northward over much of the Rockies and High Plains. Upper troughing will persist over much of eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states. A belt of enhanced mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist from the northern Plains across the Midwest/OH Valley and parts of the Southeast. Surface high pressure will dominate over much of these regions as well, with a weak front forecast to be located along/near the central Gulf Coast northeastward to southeastern VA. Across the Plains, a surface trough should extend from eastern MT into eastern CO, with a reservoir of rich low-level moisture present to its east. ...Northern/Central Plains... Thunderstorms should form Monday afternoon over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies, and eventually develop eastward over the adjacent northern/central High Plains. One or more subtle mid-level vorticity maxima rotating around the upper ridge may aid this convective development. Greater low-level moisture and related instability is forecast to be present along/east of a weak surface trough across the High Plains. There will be some potential for initially high-based convection to gradually strengthen with eastward extent through Monday evening/night. Forecast deep-layer shear would support a mix of multicells and supercells with an associated threat for large hail and severe/damaging winds. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the number of supercells which may develop given weak/nebulous forcing aloft. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk to account for a range of possible solutions regarding convective evolution. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of MO and vicinity. This activity should be related to convection that is expected to develop during the Day 1 period across the northern/central High Plains, and subsequently spread southeastward overnight into early Monday morning. Modest low-level warm advection may also aid thunderstorm maintenance Monday morning. While details regarding convective evolution remain somewhat unclear, most guidance has come into general agreement that a small cluster will persist through the day as it moves south-southeastward across the lower/mid MS Valley. Moderate to strong instability should be in place ahead of this convection as daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass occurs. Although deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, enough convective organization appears possible to support a cluster capable of producing mainly damaging winds through early Monday evening. ...Coastal Southeast... A rather moist low-level airmass should be in place ahead of a weak front across parts of the coastal Southeast states. Even though mid-level lapse rates will remain fairly poor, diurnal heating of this moist airmass will aid destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates by Monday afternoon. Thunderstorms that form across this region through the day may produce isolated damaging winds, with modest deep-layer shear aiding a mix of pulse and loosely organized multicell modes. This convection should diminish/move offshore Monday evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern Arizona... Monsoonal moisture will likely remain across southern AZ on Monday. Convection should once again develop across the higher terrain of southeastern AZ during the afternoon. Modest easterly mid/upper-level flow should aid thunderstorms spreading eastward over the lower deserts through Monday evening. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this activity, as very steep low/mid-level lapse rates aid efficient downdraft accelerations. ..Gleason.. 07/30/2023 Read more

MD 1779 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571... FOR EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1779 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Virginia into the Delmarva and southern New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 571... Valid 292220Z - 292345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 571 continues. SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat continues across eastern Virginia into the Delmarva and southern New Jersey. DISCUSSION...Storms developed across northern Virginia and central Maryland late this afternoon and quickly organized into a forward propagating squall line with numerous measured severe wind gusts over the past 1 to 2 hours. This line of storms has started to weaken with significant reduction in 9km MRMS CAPPI over the past hour. However, there is enough organization with this line of storms for continued damaging wind gusts and occasional severe wind gusts to the Atlantic Coast from southern New Jersey to southern Delaware. Farther southwest, additional convection has started to form along the front from near Blacksburg, Virginia to northeast Virginia. These storms are south of the better mid-level flow (~20 knots per RNK VWP vs 35-40 knots per LWX VWP) and therefore, storm organization may be a bit more transient. Nonetheless, significant instability (2000 to 2500 J/kg) and decent convergence along the cold front should be sufficient for a damaging wind threat as these storms move east through the evening. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 36628027 37227939 38357757 38777690 39077626 39527558 39807517 39767468 39487429 39017432 38307472 37417545 37117597 37017635 36727714 36628027 Read more

WW 0568 Status Updates
340- STATUS REPORT ON WW 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE AVP TO 10 ESE MSV TO 35 WSW PSF TO 15 ENE PSF TO 15 WSW EEN TO 20 WSW CON. ..BENTLEY..07/29/23 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-005-013-015-292340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD LITCHFIELD TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 292340- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL DUKES ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NANTUCKET NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NYC021-027-111-292340- Read more

WW 568 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NY PA RI VT CW 291730Z - 300100Z
0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 568 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Connecticut Massachusetts Extreme southern Maine Southern New Hampshire South central New York Northeast Pennsylvania Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon from New York and northeast Pennsylvania eastward into parts of southern New England. The storm environment will favor a mix of multicell clusters and some supercells capable of producing damaging winds and isolated large hail through late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north of Wilkesbarre PA to 30 miles east of Boston MA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 566...WW 567... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0569 Status Updates
340- STATUS REPORT ON WW 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CHO TO 40 NE CHO TO 15 WNW BWI TO 40 ESE CXY TO 15 W ABE TO 15 NW MSV. ..BENTLEY..07/29/23 ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-007-009-011-292340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON DEC001-003-005-292340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-292340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA Read more

WW 569 SEVERE TSTM CT DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA CW 291850Z - 300100Z
0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 569 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Connecticut District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Southeast Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon and spread eastward to the Mid-Atlantic coast. The storm environment supports a mix of multicell clusters and some supercells capable of producing damaging winds and isolated large hail through late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Bridgeport CT to 30 miles west of Patuxent River MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 567...WW 568... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S LOZ TO 35 SE LOZ TO 45 W TRI TO 30 N HSS TO 15 SSW TRI TO 10 E TRI TO 20 S BLF TO 15 NNW PSK TO 15 NNW SSU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1778 ..BENTLEY..07/29/23 ATTN...WFO...JKL...GSP...RNK...MRX...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-005-009-011-021-023-027-033-075-087-111-115-121-157-169- 171-173-189-193-197-199-292340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CASWELL GRAHAM HAYWOOD MCDOWELL MADISON MITCHELL ROCKINGHAM STOKES SURRY SWAIN WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN YANCEY TNC001-009-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-067-073-089-091-093-105- 123-155-163-171-173-179-292340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BLOUNT CAMPBELL Read more

WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..07/29/23 ATTN...WFO...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC019-039-045-047-292340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DORCHESTER SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087- 093-095-097-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-145-147- 149-159-175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-700-710-730- 735-740-760-800-810-830-292340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK AMELIA BRUNSWICK CAROLINE CHARLES CITY CHESTERFIELD CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE ESSEX FLUVANNA GLOUCESTER GOOCHLAND GREENSVILLE HANOVER HENRICO ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN KING WILLIAM LANCASTER LOUISA LUNENBURG MATHEWS MECKLENBURG MIDDLESEX NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON Read more

WW 570 SEVERE TSTM KY NC TN VA WV 291945Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 570 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Kentucky Northwest North Carolina Northeast Tennessee Western Virginia Extreme southern West Virginia * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multicell clusters of storms are expected to increase in coverage and persist through late evening while spreading east-southeastward. Downbursts with wind damage and isolated large hail will be the main severe threats. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north northwest of Knoxville TN to 40 miles east northeast of Lynchburg VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 567...WW 568...WW 569... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 571 SEVERE TSTM MD VA CW 292020Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 571 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 420 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Maryland Central and southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 420 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form and spread east-southeastward across southeast Virginia and southern Maryland through late evening, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts and isolated large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south of Charlottesville VA to 35 miles south southeast of Wallops VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 567...WW 568...WW 569...WW 570... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..07/29/23 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC021-023-025-033-035-047-049-055-059-065-069-077-079-081-101- 145-159-165-173-185-191-193-199-292340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON LAWRENCE PERRY RICHLAND SALINE SHELBY WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC027-051-083-125-129-147-153-163-173-292340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIESS GIBSON KNOX PIKE POSEY SPENCER SULLIVAN VANDERBURGH WARRICK Read more

WW 572 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY MO 292045Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Extreme southeast Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A long-lived convective cluster with a history of damaging winds is expected to persist for a few more hours while moving across parts of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana and western Kentucky. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west southwest of Scott Afb IL to 25 miles northeast of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 567...WW 568...WW 569...WW 570...WW 571... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1778 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570... FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1778 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Areas affected...Western North Carolina and far southwest Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570... Valid 292156Z - 292330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570 continues. SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts are expected to continue southeast through the evening. DISCUSSION...Moderate instability exists ahead of a line of storms now crossing the Appalachians across eastern Tennessee and far western North Carolina/Virginia. While shear is quite weak ahead of the line (15 to 20 knots) there is some stronger 4-5km flow (35-40 knots per JKL VWP) upstream. This stronger flow is likely aiding in organization of the storms and should continue to balance the cold pool sufficiently for a continued damaging wind threat through the evening. If this line of storms can maintain intensity and organization as it moves southeast this evening, a downstream watch may need to be considered across portions of western and central North Carolina. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 34978084 34768135 34538246 34728310 34998351 35378344 36128315 36708212 37048107 37098041 36787954 36487895 36077901 35667952 35298017 34978084 Read more

WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S TBN TO 10 NW FAM TO 25 NE FAM TO 25 SSW BLV TO 10 NW BLV TO 5 WSW ALN TO 25 NW ALN TO 35 SSE UIN TO 30 SE UIN TO 35 W SPI. ..JEWELL..07/29/23 ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-135-157-163-189-292340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON MOC065-093-123-179-186-187-292340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DENT IRON MADISON REYNOLDS STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 567 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 291625Z - 300000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 567 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme west central and southwest Illinois Northern and eastern Missouri * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1125 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A long-lived cluster of storms, with a history of damaging winds, will likely persist through the afternoon while moving across northern Missouri and toward the Saint Louis vicinity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles either side of a line from 25 miles southwest of Chillicothe MO to 10 miles south of Scott Afb IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 566... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30040. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1777 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1777 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Areas affected...Portions of Middle and eastern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292130Z - 292300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat will exist with storms drifting south through Middle Tennessee. DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along the surface front near the Tennessee/Kentucky border west of watch 570. These storms have formed in a region with strong instability (2500 to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and weak effective shear (~15 knots per OHX VWP). The weak shear will likely limit overall organization with a more outflow dominant line expected. However, given the hot, moist, and unstable downstream environment, some stronger, water-loaded downdrafts are possible with some threat for damaging wind gusts. A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely, unless the line of storms begins to show better organization and a greater threat for damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley/Grams.. 07/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN... LAT...LON 36458701 36528682 36428613 36398582 36488552 36668500 36718463 36338370 35438363 35238483 35258631 35428687 35708758 36058739 36458701 Read more

MD 1776 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
Mesoscale Discussion 1776 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into the Colorado Front Range Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292048Z - 292245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong/severe wind gusts will be the primary hazard with storm clusters moving off of the terrain. Large hail could occur with the strongest initial updrafts. A watch is possible later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Modestly moist upslope flow into the terrain has allowed convection from the Front Range into the Laramie mountains to deepen over the last few hours. The moist layer is rather shallow (per DDC/AMA soundings this morning) and dewpoints have consequently mixed out into the upper 50s/low 60s F. Some capping remains on the Plains to the east as a result. However, moisture is also slightly higher than some guidance has suggested. With time and continued heating (likely upper 80s to perhaps lower 90s F), a few deeper updrafts will develop. Given the modest deep-layer shear (stronger north, weaker south) and large temperature/dewpoint spreads at the surface, outflow will be prevalent. Congealing cold pools will be the likely mechanism to drive storms out onto the Plains. The strongest storms would be capable of large hail initially, although strong/severe wind gusts are the primary hazard expected late this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible this afternoon, but timing is uncertain as to when storms will move off of the terrain. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 38550462 40280522 41370543 41920506 41960422 41160357 40030309 39100286 38380321 38220381 38550462 Read more