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Crop conditions were deteriorating in Iowa as soil moisture declined and temperatures rose. Only 63% of the corn and 58% of the soybeans were in good to excellent condition, much lower than at the same time last year. WHO-TV 13 (Des Moines, Iowa), July 24, 2023

After a dry winter and spring, some Nebraska cornfields germinated and eventually tasseled at different times and heights in the same field. Dry weather has kept disease pressure low, but recent rainfall could change that. Farm Progress (St. Charles, ill.), July 24, 2023

On July 1, the U.S. cattle herd consisted of 95.9 million head of cattle and calves, per the latest cattle inventory report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Drought in 2022 continued to affect the size of the cattle herd. The total was 3% lower than the 98.6 million head on July 1, 2022, but higher than the 89.3 million head recorded as of Jan. 1 this year. Texas Farm Bureau (Waco), July 24, 2023

The week was extremely hot in the Panhandle with field conditions drying out fast, and temperatures reaching at or above triple digits. Irrigation systems were running where water was available. Producers were busy trying finish up planting and replanting summer crops. Wheat harvest was underway with average to slightly above average yields in irrigated fields. All crops needed rain. Corn was coming along but slightly behind on maturity levels compared to average years. Cotton was struggling in some areas and wilting under the extremely hot conditions, but other areas reported the crop was in good condition. Most pastures and rangeland were in good condition after recent rains helped grasses. Livestock were also in good condition with supplemental feeding happening on a very small scale. Producers finished bailing hay and wheat that replenished hay supplies. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 5, 2023 Supplemental feeding continued to take place in the Texas Panhandle on a small scale after rain improved conditions. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 21, 2023

Hot and dry conditions persisted in Southwest Texas. Pastures began showing drought stress while hay baling ceased. Forage density on rangeland was low to very low with brush- and drought-tolerant forbs dominating rangelands. Pecan orchards began producing nuts in the dough stage, and thinning was expected to begin soon if not underway already. Corn and sorghum were nearing harvest, and some producers had already begun corn harvests. Cattle markets were steady while sheep and goats were low. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 18, 2023 A heat wave continued to put high stress on agricultural production in Southwest Texas. Hot, humid conditions persisted, but rain ranging from 0.5-6.5 inches was reported over the weekend. Several locations reported 1-2 inches of rainfall. The rainfall will benefit later-planted corn and grain sorghum crops, cotton and pastures. Grain sorghum was coloring. Pecans were progressing. Grasshopper numbers remained high due to dry weather conditions; however, no significant damage was reported. Cotton was squaring but needed rain before plants begin to drop squares. Hay was being cut and baled, but rangeland and pasture conditions were declining in areas. Livestock markets were consistently high. Cooler temperatures were in the forecast. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 5, 2023 Little measurable precipitation was reported in Southwest Texas. Conditions were hot and humid, with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees and heat indexes beyond 110 degrees. The high temperatures were expected to deplete soil moisture levels from recent rains. The lack of subsoil moisture was becoming evident as crops that just received good rainfall were beginning to show moisture and heat stress. Pasture and rangeland conditions were declining and showing some signs of heat stress. Most corn, sorghum and cotton looked good. Hay was being made. Livestock were in fair to good condition, and markets were holding high. Wildlife was in good shape, but fawn survival numbers were a concern due to the hot temperatures. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 21, 2023

Residents of Katy were urged to conserve water as the extreme heat caused a sharp increase in water demand. The city was in stage 2 of its drought contingency plan. KHOU Online (Houston, Texas), July 24, 2023

Trees in the Quad Cities area were stressed by poor air quality and drought. The stress manifested as cupped, yellow or brown leaves. KWQC Online (Davenport, Iowa), July 24, 2023

Extreme drought is affecting parts of southeast Minnesota and stressing crops. Drought has hindered crop development along the Olmsted-Fillmore County line, and crops were showing deficiencies in important nutrients. Corn leaves were curling, while soybean plants were turning over their leaves. A Fillmore County farmer estimated the yields would be 50% of normal. Some years, it takes 70,000 kernels to make a bushel, but this year it may require 120,000 kernels because they are smaller. KTTC-TV Rochester (Minn.), July 24, 2023

MD 1701 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 545... FOR PORTIONS OF KY...IN...AND OH
Mesoscale Discussion 1701 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Areas affected...Portions of KY...IN...and OH Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545... Valid 242212Z - 242345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds for a couple more hours this evening. DISCUSSION...Convection that strengthened earlier this afternoon across the OH Valley along and ahead of a weak front has produced occasional severe hail and damaging winds over the past couple of hours. The thermodynamic environment across this region remains favorable for robust thunderstorms in the short term, with latest mesoanalysis estimates showing around 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present. Recent VWPs from area radars suggest low to mid-level flow remains fairly modest below about 6 km AGL, with some strengthening of northwesterly winds around 7-9 km AGL. A mix of multicells and marginal supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly severe hail and damaging winds, respectively. This convection is forecast to slowly spread east-southeastward across parts of KY, southern/eastern IN, and southern/western OH over the next couple of hours. A less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the OH Valley and eventual nocturnal cooling should limit the overall severe threat farther east later this evening. ..Gleason.. 07/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 38678706 40068577 40528325 40278228 39778216 38768269 38098396 37728517 36668570 36668740 37698688 38678706 Read more

MD 1700 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544... FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1700 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Areas affected...parts of northeast Pennsylvania into New York Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 544... Valid 242153Z - 250000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 544 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 544. Strong wind gusts remain the primary concern this evening. DISCUSSION...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms have moved across the portions of the Hudson Valley this afternoon with a history of damaging gusts. The airmass across much of eastern NY into New England has become overturned by earlier storms, though ongoing storms across central NY are approaching from the west. Given limited airmass modification ahead of these storms (i.e. surface temperatures warming into the mid 70s F), a couple of additional strong wind gusts may still occur before storms wane in intensity this evening. An instance or two of large hail also cannot be ruled out. Storms should gradually decrease in intensity this evening as nocturnal cooling and further airmass overturning occurs with ongoing storms. ..Squitieri.. 07/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 41707685 44037537 44877431 44687379 44327331 43807306 43217324 42647373 42027431 41687478 41467516 41267618 41707685 Read more

MD 1699 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEVADA INTO NORTHWESTERN UTAH...SOUTHEAST IDAHO...WESTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1699 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Areas affected...portions of northeast Nevada into northwestern Utah...southeast Idaho...western Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242133Z - 242300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms this evening. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are developing along the northwestern periphery of a monsoonal moisture plume as an embedded 500 mb impulse grazes the Great Basin. These storms are developing atop a heated, mixed boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures exceeding 90 F in several locales. The strong surface heating has resulted in boundary-layer lapse rates reaching 10 C/km in some locales. As such, efficient evaporative cooling with the more intense storm cores may support a couple of severe gusts. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 39861606 42611407 44001218 44451148 44521117 43620941 43080924 42010920 40881014 40031094 39621187 39571332 39651460 39861606 Read more

WW 0545 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 545 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..07/24/23 ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 545 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC005-011-013-019-025-027-029-031-035-037-041-043-047-055-057- 059-061-063-065-071-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-109-115- 117-119-123-135-137-139-143-145-155-159-161-175-177-242240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BOONE BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE DUBOIS FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HARRISON HENDRICKS HENRY JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARTIN MONROE MORGAN OHIO ORANGE OWEN PERRY RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SCOTT SHELBY SWITZERLAND TIPTON UNION WASHINGTON WAYNE KYC003-005-009-015-017-023-027-029-031-037-041-061-073-077-081- 085-091-093-097-099-103-111-117-123-135-141-161-163-179-181-183- Read more

WW 545 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 241940Z - 250200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 545 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Indiana Northern Kentucky Southwest Ohio * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon in a moist and very unstable air mass. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail through the afternoon and early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south southwest of Bloomington IN to 30 miles east of Columbus OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 544... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0544 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 544 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..07/24/23 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 544 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC005-242140- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LITCHFIELD MAC003-242140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE NYC001-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-033-035-039-041- 043-045-049-053-057-065-067-075-077-083-089-091-093-095-097-099- 101-105-107-109-111-113-115-123-242140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CLINTON COLUMBIA CORTLAND DELAWARE Read more

WW 544 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NY PA VT 241705Z - 250000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 544 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Connecticut Western Massachusetts Central and Eastern New York Northeast Pennsylvania Vermont * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon as daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere. The strongest storms this afternoon will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west of Monticello NY to 35 miles north northwest of Burlington VT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts will be possible into these evening across parts of the Northeast states and the Ohio Valley. ...20z Update... A small southward expansion to the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over TN has been made to account for a developing cluster over southeast MO and potential for that cluster to continue south/southeast through early evening. Reference MCD 1697 for short term details on this severe risk. The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) as also been expanded westward across parts of southern IN, central/western KY and northwest TN to account for ongoing observational trends. Reference MCD 1695 and WW 545 for more information. Otherwise, the Marginal risk has been trimmed across much of MO into parts of IL where morning convection has resulted in stronger inhibition and lowered severe potential. Reference MCDs 1696 and WW 544 for more information regarding short term severe potential across the Northeast. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023/ ...Northeast... Morning water vapor loop shows a series of shortwave troughs over western/central NY and Lake Ontario. Lift ahead of these systems will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms across parts of NY/PA, spreading eastward into VT. Forecast soundings show relatively steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow above 3km to help organize the stronger cells and pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #1694 for further details. ...OH Valley... A moist low-level air mass is present today from southern OH westward into IN/IL/KY with dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s. A shortwave trough over WI will approach the area later this afternoon, with isolated to scattered thunderstorm development likely. Ample CAPE and sufficient northwest flow aloft will result in a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A consensus of 12z guidance shows a higher concentration of storms over parts of southwest OH and adjacent parts of KY/IN. Therefore a small SLGT has been added for that region. ...NV/UT/ID/MT/WY... A large upper ridge is in place today over much of the Great Basin, with a band of stronger flow extending from NV into UT/ID and WY/MT. A shortwave trough embedded in this flow over NV will track northeastward and aid in the development scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms later today. This activity may pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds through the evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Columbia Basin... Recent model guidance has trended drier and windier with surface conditions across eastern WA and OR in the wake of the cold front moving through on D1/Mon. Model soundings show afternoon RH values below 20-25% with winds gusts to 15-20 mph through the Cascade gaps and the western portions of the Columbia Basin. With the increased confidence in dry and breezy conditions over dry fuels, a few hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions now appear likely D2/Tues afternoon. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes for the latest forecast guidance. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... Relatively strong mid-level flow will traverse the periphery of an upper ridge, poised to remain in place across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. The stronger flow aloft may encourage dry downslope flow along the lee of the northern Sierra and parts of the higher terrain within the northern Rockies. Latest guidance consensus suggests that RH may drop below 20 percent in several locales as sustained westerly surface winds peak over 15 mph for at least a few hours, necessitating Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will remain trapped near the stationary upper ridge, supporting at least scattered thunderstorm development with afternoon heating. Any lightning strikes that can occur within one of the more isolated dry fuel beds may promote localized wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

A farmer near Cedarburg found that the soil was so dry that farmers have to get creative to get beets out of the ground. He described, "We kind of run it over with a tractor to bring that moisture up." FOX6 News Online (Milwaukee, Wis.), July 21, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch