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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the mid-level flow pattern will trend toward quasi-zonal as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin. At the surface, a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south over the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. The high pressure should keep winds relatively light with widespread winter precipitation expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Moderate RH, cooler temperatures and weak winds suggest fire-weather concerns will remain very low over much of the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially centered over Utah is forecast to gradually shift eastward on Friday, as a rather strong mid/upper-level jet moves through the base of the trough over the Southwest. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible with weak convection that develops near the Four Corners region, where some very modest heating/destabilization is possible during the afternoon. The front that moved into the Gulf and across the FL Peninsula earlier this week is forecast to become nearly stationary, and then lift slowly northward as a warm front on Friday. Weak surface waves may develop along the front near the southeast FL coast, and also over the central Gulf of Mexico. Despite increasing moisture across parts of the FL Peninsula, poor midlevel lapse rates and weak large-scale ascent are currently expected to limit thunderstorm potential over inland areas and the Keys. ..Dean.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially centered over Utah is forecast to gradually shift eastward on Friday, as a rather strong mid/upper-level jet moves through the base of the trough over the Southwest. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible with weak convection that develops near the Four Corners region, where some very modest heating/destabilization is possible during the afternoon. The front that moved into the Gulf and across the FL Peninsula earlier this week is forecast to become nearly stationary, and then lift slowly northward as a warm front on Friday. Weak surface waves may develop along the front near the southeast FL coast, and also over the central Gulf of Mexico. Despite increasing moisture across parts of the FL Peninsula, poor midlevel lapse rates and weak large-scale ascent are currently expected to limit thunderstorm potential over inland areas and the Keys. ..Dean.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially centered over Utah is forecast to gradually shift eastward on Friday, as a rather strong mid/upper-level jet moves through the base of the trough over the Southwest. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible with weak convection that develops near the Four Corners region, where some very modest heating/destabilization is possible during the afternoon. The front that moved into the Gulf and across the FL Peninsula earlier this week is forecast to become nearly stationary, and then lift slowly northward as a warm front on Friday. Weak surface waves may develop along the front near the southeast FL coast, and also over the central Gulf of Mexico. Despite increasing moisture across parts of the FL Peninsula, poor midlevel lapse rates and weak large-scale ascent are currently expected to limit thunderstorm potential over inland areas and the Keys. ..Dean.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially centered over Utah is forecast to gradually shift eastward on Friday, as a rather strong mid/upper-level jet moves through the base of the trough over the Southwest. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible with weak convection that develops near the Four Corners region, where some very modest heating/destabilization is possible during the afternoon. The front that moved into the Gulf and across the FL Peninsula earlier this week is forecast to become nearly stationary, and then lift slowly northward as a warm front on Friday. Weak surface waves may develop along the front near the southeast FL coast, and also over the central Gulf of Mexico. Despite increasing moisture across parts of the FL Peninsula, poor midlevel lapse rates and weak large-scale ascent are currently expected to limit thunderstorm potential over inland areas and the Keys. ..Dean.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially centered over Utah is forecast to gradually shift eastward on Friday, as a rather strong mid/upper-level jet moves through the base of the trough over the Southwest. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible with weak convection that develops near the Four Corners region, where some very modest heating/destabilization is possible during the afternoon. The front that moved into the Gulf and across the FL Peninsula earlier this week is forecast to become nearly stationary, and then lift slowly northward as a warm front on Friday. Weak surface waves may develop along the front near the southeast FL coast, and also over the central Gulf of Mexico. Despite increasing moisture across parts of the FL Peninsula, poor midlevel lapse rates and weak large-scale ascent are currently expected to limit thunderstorm potential over inland areas and the Keys. ..Dean.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...South Florida... Weak midlevel height rises are expected across south Florida on Thanksgiving as the northern extent of broad ridging will influence this region. Surface front should settle south, and the primary zone of low-level convergence is forecast to focus just offshore. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve near the frontal zone, but most inland showers will be weak and not expected to pose much threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...South Florida... Weak midlevel height rises are expected across south Florida on Thanksgiving as the northern extent of broad ridging will influence this region. Surface front should settle south, and the primary zone of low-level convergence is forecast to focus just offshore. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve near the frontal zone, but most inland showers will be weak and not expected to pose much threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...South Florida... Weak midlevel height rises are expected across south Florida on Thanksgiving as the northern extent of broad ridging will influence this region. Surface front should settle south, and the primary zone of low-level convergence is forecast to focus just offshore. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve near the frontal zone, but most inland showers will be weak and not expected to pose much threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...South Florida... Weak midlevel height rises are expected across south Florida on Thanksgiving as the northern extent of broad ridging will influence this region. Surface front should settle south, and the primary zone of low-level convergence is forecast to focus just offshore. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve near the frontal zone, but most inland showers will be weak and not expected to pose much threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...South Florida... Weak midlevel height rises are expected across south Florida on Thanksgiving as the northern extent of broad ridging will influence this region. Surface front should settle south, and the primary zone of low-level convergence is forecast to focus just offshore. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve near the frontal zone, but most inland showers will be weak and not expected to pose much threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...South Florida... Weak midlevel height rises are expected across south Florida on Thanksgiving as the northern extent of broad ridging will influence this region. Surface front should settle south, and the primary zone of low-level convergence is forecast to focus just offshore. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve near the frontal zone, but most inland showers will be weak and not expected to pose much threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Offshore flow is noted across all but the southern Florida Peninsula this evening. Pre frontal soundings across the warm sector exhibit weak buoyancy, in addition to weak low-level convergence. Thunderstorm threat appears negligible tonight. ..Darrow.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Offshore flow is noted across all but the southern Florida Peninsula this evening. Pre frontal soundings across the warm sector exhibit weak buoyancy, in addition to weak low-level convergence. Thunderstorm threat appears negligible tonight. ..Darrow.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Offshore flow is noted across all but the southern Florida Peninsula this evening. Pre frontal soundings across the warm sector exhibit weak buoyancy, in addition to weak low-level convergence. Thunderstorm threat appears negligible tonight. ..Darrow.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Offshore flow is noted across all but the southern Florida Peninsula this evening. Pre frontal soundings across the warm sector exhibit weak buoyancy, in addition to weak low-level convergence. Thunderstorm threat appears negligible tonight. ..Darrow.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Offshore flow is noted across all but the southern Florida Peninsula this evening. Pre frontal soundings across the warm sector exhibit weak buoyancy, in addition to weak low-level convergence. Thunderstorm threat appears negligible tonight. ..Darrow.. 11/23/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 22 22:08:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 22 22:08:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Zonal flow across the CONUS will give way to a deepening Pacific trough by D3 - Friday to D4 - Saturday. At the surface, cold air will sink southward across much of the northern CONUS. Behind this system, there is potential for an increase in offshore flow across Southern California D5 - Sunday into D6 - Monday. This may lead to brief localized Elevated fire weather concerns. Potential for precipitation also leads to uncertainty on availability of fuels. A secondary push of cold air is expected on D5 - Sunday/ D6 - Monday and will bring the colder air all the way to the Gulf Coast. Beyond D6, continued troughing is expected across the eastern US with ridging building across the western US. Overall, fire weather concerns will remain limited in most areas due to cool/cold temperatures, light winds, or chances for precipitation. ..Thornton.. 11/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more